Provided my eyesight remains stable, while I await eye surgery next Thursday, I’ll be focusing on a bit of research that I haven’t seen much written about; namely the specific week before to three weeks after a Fed rate decision.
One can intuit that there will be disappointment in the Fed decision next week, regardless of what it is: In our long wave economics work, while we stand at the base of what was a HUGE blow-off rally in the 1920’s case, there may be enough computational horsepower pointed at the problem in modern times that we will be able to avoid the blatant blowout. But there are no guarantees; the wiring of humans hasn’t changed appreciably since that Great Depression. Or, come to think of it, in the last 3,000 years, either.
My friend Roger Reynolds, who has an excellent market letter I’ve recommended before, listed four reasons in a Thursday note to think this would be a good time to get cash or short. Not the least of which is the broadening top pattern he discerns and the fact that none of the major rally indexes has continued to power its way up.
There’s an item from the Peoplenomics.com site that is worrisome, too. That is, in our Peoplenomics Oscillator – which is a very interesting general sentiment tool – we have just seen an extreme top in the Oscillator.
Now think about what this means: In past tradable tops (since the 2009 low) our Oscillator has gone to the +750 range. At the bottom of the 2009 low it was below –2300. But now that we are over 900, the odds that the blow-off top is in and we could start working downward from here does seem to increase.
Regardless, the Oscillator only means something at the close of trading on Fridays because of the “hot money” that doesn’t remain in play over weekends. But our Peoplenomics report tomorrow should be especially interesting. There is still an open case that could drive the market even higher for another two to four weeks before ther weight of history really begins to open up downside opportunities. New highs are still possible, though it becomes a pretty tough bet to make when playing with real money.
In terms of other influences, the price of gold was down a bit, yet silver was holding comfortably over the $17 mark in this morning’s pre-open action.
We are starting to see a few headlines flowing about the Brexit vote which comes up June 23rd. Stories like “In Asia, financial firms wake up to Brexit risks, begin contingency planning>” Still, it’s a long ways off, and the Fed next week is a much bigger deal – for now.
Don’t Say I Didn’t Warn You (A Mini-Rant)
Many months back, I told you that in addition to the lay-down on the budget, both of the corporate parties that run America agreed to hide the sausage on Obamacare increases until 2017.
That got me a stern lecture on how “..you always slant things to your point of view – the increases won’t be that big…” for a liberal reader.
Yet, here we are – getting closer – and here come confirming headlines like “Get Ready for Huge Obamacare Premium Hikes in 2017.”
Look, I don’t mind people criticizing our point of view – but please hold the tomatoes until we’re actually wrong – which ain’t often.
I haven’t been wrong on the big picture stuff like immigration as an economic stimulus scam, the reconquest of Europe by Muslim jihadists, or the continual watering down of the US dollar. Or the Obama administration plan to pepper every community in America with Muslim seed families.
My liberal friends have big hearts. They don’t do as well with the big data. Like gun crime levels in the places with the highest levels of gun control and the whole litany. There’s opinion and there’s data. If you think Obamacare will go up at inflation-only rates, you ought to consider turning yourself in for rehab or reality counseling.
America used to be a set of ideals. It is now interlocked business models. Anyone who says otherwise is incompetent.
The reason LBGTQ is in the growth mode is it’s a business model. Reason why border crossings are going up? Business Model. Reason more illegals aren’t reported? Re-categorized into “case pending” because that a business model, too. Even climate change is a what? Roll me another grant to study and diddle data, wouldja, brother? Hire them cow-fart police on the jump.
EVERYTHING IS A BUSINESS MODEL least-wise around here.
Lazy people think “get by.” Smart people run business models of their own.
Here’s something new to worry about, out of the New York Times today:” U.S. Suicide Rate Surges to a 30-Year High.”
Key point is that 45-64 year old women seem to be leading the increase – up 63%. There are lots of possible reasons, but with increases in all categories, it is hard to nail down a single – or few – causative drivers.
I suspect economics is in there somewhere, overtly or in background.
Singular Passings: Prince
Beyond his music, the battle for creative control with the big studios and “big name producers” is really worth reading on.
The doves cry.
Aging Gracefully: Rent Instead of Own?
Interesting article out of Trulia picked up by the Housing Wire caught our eye – because it’s a problem I’ve been looking at.
Speaking of press releases, here’s another one that is housing-related:
San Francisco, Calif., and Travis, Texas, led the nation in 2014 in annual employment growth among the top 50 U.S. counties with the most employees, according to new U.S. Census Bureau economic statistics released today. Overall, these 50 counties accounted for 34.7 percent of all U.S. employment.
San Francisco’s employment grew 5.7 percent (up 30,931 employees) to 573,297 employees in 2014. The information sector (NAICS 51), up 13.6 percent to 56,684 employees, and the construction sector (NAICS 23), up 10.4 percent to 17,884 employees led growth in that county. Specifically, within these two growing sectors, other information services (NAICS 519), up 27.4 percent to 18,104 employees, and construction of buildings (NAICS 236), up 14.1 percent to 7,425 employees, were the subsectors powering San Francisco’s employment growth.
Five of the top winners were in Texas. In terms of the Bay area, this sure explains the roaring real estate market there. Suffolk Mass. was the biggest loser. With jobless claims at a 42 year low, and everyone has a computer and a phone (or three) not much else in the way of options other than buy a box to live in rather than pay rent and make someone else rich.
Computers Impacting Real Estate Processes
I don’t know as you remember, but our little slice of heaven out here in Texas was an almost entirely online adventure back in 2002: Whole process was searched, pictures of the place, and so on all made over the internet with no “in-person” visit to the property. We were lucky…and I don’t recommend that process. Eyes on is still better than video…
But the fact is computers have changed how real estate deals happen so this week’s press release on process change is worth knowing about:
NEW YORK, April 20, 2016 /PRNewswire/ — USRealty.com, the online service that is changing the way home owners sell their homes, today launched free access to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) nationwide. Through a simple three-step process, home-sellers can create a customized listing for their home with photos, and even dictate the amount of commission they are willing to pay. Listings appear on USRealty.com immediately, in one day on the MLS, a private database that real estate agents use to market their clients’ homes to other agents, and on popular sites like Realtor.com, Trulia and Zillow within a few days of listing. These sites are where house-hunters look first and continuously for the latest listings of houses for sale.
So if you are looking to make that first offer on a hot property, there’s the path to be following.
While the US has been scaling down our military – perhaps to pay for all the Obama administration illegals being “Obamanized” (legalized isn’t quite the right word) we notice how power loves a vacuum.
The missile’s name translates from Chinese into what to American thinking about be the “East Wind 41.”
This is terribly disappointing to us. We’d been pulling for the Chinese to name it the Griffon. That way we’d be able to headline developments in the MIRV’ed Griffon.
I suppose that’s why the P.L.A. is not a consulting client.
Pays to Be a Queen
Why the kneelers put up with $84 billion of net worth of the British Monarchy is beyond me. Maybe they don’t teach the French Revolution in British schools….who knows?
Seem to be upset with the “old guard” in Washington, according to this report. We see how little change there has been from Bush policies, or Clinton policies before.
If the State Department removed files after a congressional subpoena, why aren’t heads rolling? Does everyone in DC have a “control file” on ‘em? Is Obama an Obstructor in Chief, a kind of democratic Nixon who hasn’t been called out, yet?
It all smacks of a super-government off in the background somewhere, which we label as the fictitious Directorate 153 which calls in computer-modeled future decisions from some secured sideline, somewhere.