Fed Fascination: Wonder and Waiting

Provided my eyesight remains stable, while I await eye surgery next Thursday, I’ll be focusing on a bit of research that I haven’t seen much written about; namely the specific week before to three weeks after a Fed rate decision.

One can intuit that there will be disappointment in the Fed decision next week, regardless of what it is:  In our long wave economics work, while we stand at the base of what was a HUGE blow-off rally in the 1920’s case, there may be enough computational horsepower pointed at the problem in modern times that we will be able to avoid the blatant blowout.  But there are no guarantees; the wiring of humans hasn’t changed appreciably since that Great Depression.  Or, come to think of it, in the last 3,000 years, either.

My friend Roger Reynolds, who has an excellent market letter I’ve recommended before, listed four reasons in a  Thursday note to think this would be a good time to get cash or short.  Not the least of which is the broadening top pattern he discerns and the fact that none of the major rally indexes has continued to power its way up.

There’s an item from the Peoplenomics.com site that is worrisome, too.  That is, in our Peoplenomics Oscillator – which is a very interesting general sentiment tool – we have just seen an extreme top in the Oscillator.

Now think about what this means:  In past tradable tops (since the 2009 low) our Oscillator has gone to the +750 range.  At the bottom of the 2009 low it was below –2300.  But now that we are over 900, the odds that the blow-off top is in and we could start working downward from here does seem to increase.

Regardless, the Oscillator only means something at the close of trading on Fridays because of the “hot money” that doesn’t remain in play over weekends.  But our Peoplenomics report tomorrow should be especially interesting. There is still an open case that could drive the market even higher for another two to four weeks before ther weight of history really begins to open up downside opportunities.  New highs are still possible, though it becomes a pretty tough bet to make when playing with real money.

In terms of other influences, the price of gold was down a bit, yet silver was holding comfortably over the $17 mark in this morning’s pre-open action.

We are starting to see a few headlines flowing about the Brexit vote which comes up June 23rd.  Stories like “In Asia, financial firms wake up to Brexit risks, begin contingency planning>”  Still, it’s a long ways off, and the Fed next week is a much bigger deal – for now.

Don’t Say I Didn’t Warn You (A Mini-Rant)

Many months back, I told you that in addition to the lay-down on the budget, both of the corporate parties that run America agreed to hide the sausage on Obamacare increases until 2017. 

That got me a stern lecture on how “..you always slant things to your point of view – the increases won’t be that big…” for a liberal reader.

Yet, here we are – getting closer – and here come confirming headlines like “Get Ready for Huge Obamacare Premium Hikes in 2017.”

Look, I don’t mind people criticizing our point of view – but please hold the tomatoes until we’re actually wrong – which ain’t often.

I haven’t been wrong on the big picture stuff like immigration as an economic stimulus scam, the reconquest of Europe by Muslim jihadists, or the continual watering down of the US dollar.  Or the Obama administration plan to pepper every community in America with Muslim seed families.

My liberal friends have big hearts.  They don’t do as well with the big data.  Like gun crime levels in the places with the highest levels of gun control and the whole litany.  There’s opinion and there’s data.  If you think Obamacare will go up at inflation-only rates, you ought to consider turning yourself in for rehab or reality counseling.

America used to be a set of ideals.  It is now interlocked business models.  Anyone who says otherwise is incompetent.

The reason LBGTQ is in the growth mode is it’s a business model.  Reason why border crossings are going up?  Business Model.  Reason more illegals aren’t reported?  Re-categorized into “case pending” because that a business model, too.  Even climate change is a what?  Roll me another grant to study and diddle data, wouldja, brother?  Hire them cow-fart police on the jump.

EVERYTHING IS A BUSINESS MODEL least-wise around here.

Lazy people think “get by.”  Smart people run business models of their own.

Killer Data

Here’s something new to worry about, out of the New York Times today:” U.S. Suicide Rate Surges to a 30-Year High.”

Key point is that 45-64 year old women seem to be leading the increase – up 63%.  There are lots of possible reasons, but with increases in all categories, it is hard to nail down a single – or few – causative drivers.

I suspect economics is in there somewhere, overtly or in background.

Singular Passings:  Prince

Beyond his music, the battle for creative control with the big studios and “big name producers” is really worth reading on. 

The doves cry.

Aging Gracefully:  Rent Instead of Own?

Interesting article out of Trulia picked up by the Housing Wire caught our eye – because it’s a problem I’ve been looking at. 

Conclusion?  Renting a Home in Retirement is better than buying” with a list of exceptions to the rule.

Hottest Markets

Speaking of press releases, here’s another one that is housing-related:

San Francisco, Calif., and Travis, Texas, led the nation in 2014 in annual employment growth among the top 50 U.S. counties with the most employees, according to new U.S. Census Bureau economic statistics released today. Overall, these 50 counties accounted for 34.7 percent of all U.S. employment.

San Francisco’s employment grew 5.7 percent (up 30,931 employees) to 573,297 employees in 2014. The information sector (NAICS 51), up 13.6 percent to 56,684 employees, and the construction sector (NAICS 23), up 10.4 percent to 17,884 employees led growth in that county. Specifically, within these two growing sectors, other information services (NAICS 519), up 27.4 percent to 18,104 employees, and construction of buildings (NAICS 236), up 14.1 percent to 7,425 employees, were the subsectors powering San Francisco’s employment growth.


Five of the top winners were in Texas.  In terms of the Bay area, this sure explains the roaring real estate market there.  Suffolk Mass. was the biggest loser.  With jobless claims at a 42 year low, and everyone has a computer and a phone (or three) not much else in the way of options other than buy a box to live in rather than pay rent and make someone else rich.

Computers Impacting Real Estate Processes

I don’t know as you remember, but our little slice of heaven out here in Texas was an almost entirely online adventure back in 2002:  Whole process was searched, pictures of the place, and so on all made over the internet with no “in-person” visit to the property.  We were lucky…and I don’t recommend that process.  Eyes on is still better than video…

But the fact is computers have changed how real estate deals happen so this week’s press release on process change is worth knowing about:

NEW YORK, April 20, 2016 /PRNewswire/ — USRealty.com, the online service that is changing the way home owners sell their homes, today launched free access to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) nationwide. Through a simple three-step process, home-sellers can create a customized listing for their home with photos, and even dictate the amount of commission they are willing to pay. Listings appear on USRealty.com immediately, in one day on the MLS, a private database that real estate agents use to market their clients’ homes to other agents, and on popular sites like Realtor.com, Trulia and Zillow within a few days of listing. These sites are where house-hunters look first and continuously for the latest listings of houses for sale.

So if you are looking to make that first offer on a hot property, there’s the path to be following.

Military Might

While the US has been scaling down our military – perhaps to pay for all the Obama administration illegals being “Obamanized”  (legalized isn’t quite the right word) we notice how power loves a vacuum.

China has been testing it’s new DF-41 rockets and they are now testing it with MIRV warheads.

The missile’s name translates from Chinese into what to American thinking about be the “East Wind 41.”

This is terribly disappointing to us.  We’d been pulling for the Chinese to name it the Griffon.  That way we’d be able to headline developments in the MIRV’ed Griffon.

I suppose that’s why the P.L.A. is not a consulting client.

Pays to Be a Queen

Why the kneelers put up with $84 billion of net worth of the British Monarchy is beyond me.  Maybe they don’t teach the French Revolution in British schools….who knows?

Young Democrats

Seem to be upset with the “old guard” in Washington, according to this report.  We see how little change there has been from Bush policies, or Clinton policies before.

If the State Department removed files after a congressional subpoena, why aren’t heads rolling?  Does everyone in DC have a “control file” on ‘em?  Is Obama an Obstructor in Chief, a kind of democratic Nixon who hasn’t been called out, yet?

It all smacks of a super-government off in the background somewhere, which we label as the fictitious Directorate 153 which calls in computer-modeled future decisions from some secured sideline, somewhere.


Fed Fascination: Wonder and Waiting — 24 Comments

  1. “Many months back, I told you that in addition to the lay-down on the budget, both of the corporate parties that run America agreed to hide the sausage on Obamacare increases until 2017. ”

    OH boy.. we seen that in January.. because we have had some medical problems in the past.. we could spend four hundred on a policy that didn’t pay anything at all to get one that did would cost us just under a thousand more for a policy that was similar to the one we had to replace since it was a cobra plan.. ( we paid almost eight hundred a month for that one..)and that was just for the wife’s insurance… she had to go back to work full time just for the insurance..I talk daily with people from the UK and Canada, while playing an online game one of the biggest jokes to them is how the United states is willing to spend billions for other countries but forget about the people in their own country.. they love their health care system.. some spout. long waiting periods in other countries.. Hmm.. we have them here to.. to visit with a specialist unless it is an emergency.. can have a six month to a year waiting period..Just saying their one pay way of doing medical is working. maybe that is why our health care system is right along with slovania while almost every other medical system in the world spends less and has dramatically better health of its people at lower costs per person..

    • a friend of mine suggested a policy he had in Arizona.. oh but that isn’t available in our part of the country..

  2. Here is an idea that you may not be too old for, buy a cabin in town close to the hospital as you can rent it out until the day that you and Elaine decide you can’t live in the country no more and then you take your turn to live in it mearer the hospital it’s a great setup I have it here have a good day bye

    • Although my plan is to stay out here in the country until the end course it’s nice to have a backup plan huh

    • here is another idea there used to be people that would advertise for caretakers of the properties of those properties could be relatively small or enormously large and the caretaker would be qualified to take care of that property no matter whether it’s small or large of course they put their applications in and most of the time the caretaker could live there for free in exchange for the services of taking care of whatever it was on that property that need to be taken care of, so this could work for you and either way of the situation you could hire the caretaker or you could work for the person that wants a caretaker and you have opportunity to investigate and explore those options and I know how you like options

  3. Late to the table, but I want to chime in.
    Please be exceedingly careful about your eye procedures. I haven’t been sure whether you’re changing lens or just having ‘repairs’ done.
    I, illadvisedly, took the advice of a friend and had installed a cataract replacement lens branded “crystalens”. It was supposed to be designed for the ciliary muscles to attach to the lens so that the lens would focus similarly to our ‘born with’ lens. This never worked for me. However, more frustrating to me, this lens
    causes a “starburst” effect especially at night so that my visual perception when I see any light source at night is a group of light like lines around the headlight,street light, tail light, etc. Not a halo effect but a group of lines emanating out from the light. This effect is well known whenever I mention it to an optometrist or opthalmologist. My opthalmologist tells me this is because this lens is smaller than a single vision lens and the light bleeds over and around the implanted lens.
    Here in Florida we have cataract lens replacement ‘factories’,( I call’em) e.g. St Luke’s in Tarpon Springs devoted just to eye surgeries and treatment.
    Also, before I began having eye problems I had no idea of all the specialties:
    My primary opthalmologist
    Dr of Opthalmology- Retinal Specialist
    Dr of Opthalmology- Glaucoma Specialist
    Dr of Opthalmology- Corneal Specialist
    Don’t know if there’s specialist just for the left or right eye yet.

  4. Well that was that. Just stoping by, been entertaining the doom prophets.

    Moving on. UP WARDS.

    Sorry to hear about your peepers.


  5. Almost three years ago, my husband and I realized we needed to get out into the real estate market and find something reasonable to purchase. Three agonizing months on all the online sites and many, many onsite visits, and we found a prospect that shouldn’t have panned out, but did. The idiot real estate agent posted only two pictures of the best house on the street, and not until we saw it in person did we realize the potential. The seller was eager to close and as were we. We probably could have negotiated the price down a bit, but after three months of disappointments, we were eager to move on and move in, and haven’t regretted doing so for a moment. If we’d ONLY seen the property through a listing, our purchase never would have happened. Because we were able to lay eyes-on, we knew we were getting a deal. YMMV.

  6. Good luck trying to earn wealth trading paper. You’re playing a rigged game where the house controls the rules and the value of your chips. When they finally become the big loser do you think they will let you walk out of the house with a pocketful of chips that are worth something?

  7. I hate to get your blood pressure going, but today I saw an ad to “Vote for Hillary” on your website. I’m pretty sure you are not the party to blame for this. Just thought I would let you know.

  8. Obviously, if you don’t own a home outright, you’re not ready for retirement. Too many “retirees” struggle to pay a mortgage or rent.

  9. The super government is known as the khazarian mafia, an organized worldwide crime syndicate overseeing smaller national and regional cells of organized crime. This is characterized by their willingness to kill anyone who attempts to effectively oppose their interests. They are also avid students of mind control using technology.

    As Gerald Celente and Jim Willie both say, until you realize the pervasiveness of criminality in banking and government around the world, events will appear unexpected and unreasonable and aware people will feel confused.

    Having lost my American myopia by staying out of the USA for years, what would be strange would be if things that are happening were not happening the way they are.

    Citizens of countries that have not felt the brunt of American imperialism are like people who anthropomorphize their dogs to the point that they simply cannot believe what their dog is going to do as it heads for a fire hydrant. They are still hoping the dog is not going to do it’s deed, and then are devastated when it happens. Or like a female dog that eats something rotten off the street and then jumps on your lap and licks you on the mouth.

    You may still be hung up on your business model, but in the USA you are now living under a full fledged FASCIST business model, in a country where at least 30% of the population are considered too small to save, are of absolutely no use to those who sit in the seats of real power and have no compunction about terminating people. The fascist model is characterized by its ability to function with DEADLY efficiency.

    As an intelligent aware person, you might have the ability to avoid the brunt of this reset, but as any trauma counselor will tell you, the witness to victimization is almost always more traumatized than the victim. For the victim, the perpetrator stops, but for the witness, the brain plays the trauma over and over and over again. And as George Carlin says, being born in America gives you a front to seat to the circus that becomes a horror show as a formerly free, arrogant, prosperous but ignorant populace is driven mercilessly into second and third world poverty and oppression, clutching their possessions all the way down.

    Venezuela is like jumping out of a two story window, but the USA is like jumping off a ten story building. Americans will never know the real story of what is happening to the Venezuelan people until they witness it first hand.

  10. Between Google Earth, Google Maps, and the hi-res 360 cameras, you can shop a house and see great detail while online. Where I’m from, the seller must prepare a document listing known problems with the house and is legally bound to it at the sale (kind of a warranty?). The only thing missing is “the vibe” and who has that anymore?

  11. Don’t lose the faith. We’re in the ’20’s–the world political and economical climate is the same–and all we need is the spark to trigger the gold (stock market) rush. There are signs everywhere in the MSM that there is nowhere left to make money except the stock market and somebody will figure out the supply/demand retail model for this, maybe some privatized mega fund.

  12. I know little about economics, however, what happened this week seems to me to indicate all prognostication systems are moot. China is issuing gold backed paper. Something like this did not happen in the 1920’s. Add to this the load of debt we owe to them, and you have heretofore not seen factors. Whatever happens, I predict it will not be good for us regular folks out here.

  13. Okay, just remember you are the one who opened this particular can or worms.

    The age group of women you mentioned are an interesting cross-over group – the last of the boomers and the first of that next group (I can never keep up). This is the group of women who seem to have gone absolutely bonkers over the past several years (some exceptions to every rule Mrs. U), not having babies, leaving their husbands for any number of reasons (both valid and not), putting “career” first, and are the main driving force of our consumption economy.

    I posit the increase is due to an increasing number of them who have realized how screwed up they’ve made things, turn to despair (instead of repair), and are lost.

    It’s a real shame, cause there’s guys like me out here who might tolerate some craziness, as long as you figure out how to be pleasant while you’re doing it.

    • Right on target, Nature Boy. The end is just the little ‘commonsense’ that had survived.
      Sooo sorry!

    • Dear Nature Boy – or perhaps I should call you ‘Tarzan’ (You certainly got that ‘Me Tarzan, You Jane’ vibe going) – my late husband and I knew what each of us did best – despite whether it was traditionally ‘male’ or ‘female’ – not sure you’d understand that.

      My sisters, on the other hand, (we all fall in the age range you mentioned) – tried to be both traditional (with children) and more modern – with mixed results – mainly because husband or boyfriend weren’t adaptable enough to understand their need for intellectual or social contact.

      Blaming someone for something only works if you have specific personal instances, not vague ‘might-have-been’s’.

      • Come now, name calling ? I would never insist that roles are set, a partnership means each contributes as necessary. I was commenting on the overall change in behavior of women in general over the past decades.

        I’m suggesting that many women in our age group have responded very strongly to the marketing which has been primarily directed at them, and instead of building a “common wealth” within their respective partnerships have instead catered to as many of their individual whims as possible.

        Lately, in all fairness, men have not behaved much better. When I see a 60-something man driving a tricked-out SUV with wheels that belong on a low-rider I have to shake my head.

        Can all of this consumption replace the fullness of soul that your relationship seems to have provided you, long after this seemingly wonderful man has departed ? I think not.

        I think that if the current trend of temporary relationships, which has become more prevalent during our lifetimes, continues to increase, despair of both sexes will rise to levels that will affect our ability to function as a society.

        Women alone are not to blame, they just happened to be a subject of the story and George’s rhetorical comment.

    • Nature Boy and another commentator, Mike, ya’ll have great attitudes towards women…. a little crazy can be good, it is a coping mechanism….My Grand Dad lasted 62 years with Grand Ma, and he was never bored…I can still hear them talking to each other….every single day something interesting to share….she would be termed ‘crazy’ but she was the most incredibally talented woman many people had ever known. They were quite a pair!!!

    • This theme was discussed a little while back in George’s columns, & I didn’t comment. It got ugly. As a cute, single, white female I did everything asked of my generation: an education, job, and really tried to find the right guy. My gen was handed that type of “platefull” without asking and many did our best. I mean I really looked everywhere I went. No luck. It was really bad timing on the few really good ones (& I’m open minded re: looks), or just really bad intentioned guys the rest of the time. I WISH we all came with a instruction manual at birth (HA!) to understand each other, as there seems to be confusion and miscommunication in spades. My parents were older when they had me, got sick earlier than for most people, and so instead of working my recent dating years were spent with family issues. I SAY as a former counselor: please people Try to be understanding of each other, play less games, and put yourself in the other’s shoes. Life’s complicated & short enough. My 2 cents.

  14. Had to laugh at the response from your liberal friends – reminded me of this:

    “It isn’t so much that liberals are ignorant. It’s just that they know so many things that aren’t so.”

    ? Ronald Reagan

    • Harry S. Truman

      Republicans approve of the American farmer, but they are willing to help him go broke. They stand four-square for the American home–but not for housing. They are strong for labor–but they are stronger for restricting labor’s rights. They favor minimum wage–the smaller the minimum wage the better. They endorse educational opportunity for all–but they won’t spend money for teachers or for schools. They think modern medical care and hospitals are fine–for people who can afford them. They consider electrical power a great blessing–but only when the private power companies get their rake-off. They think American standard of living is a fine thing–so long as it doesn’t spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it.