“So let us stop talking falsely now, the hour’s getting late…”
~Bob Dylan reprised by Jimi Hendrix
If you’re looking for a weekend to really worry about the world “blowing up and going to hell” this would be the one you’d have to pick for the next several months. Not only are there significant downsides to it, there’s a marvelous “market set-up” and important strategic reasons to be concerned.
The high-level view was summed up by a reader named Bill who lives up in the Northeast:
Two small points bear observation at this late hour:
1) This weekend is the dark of the moon. Optimum time for mil-ops for high-tech nations that own the night.
2) Israel hit two missile “bases” in Syria earlier Thursday, meaning there will be a lot of hollering and general bellicosity today. (Thursday) Maybe some triggering blow-back…
It’s really only a question of when, and not if…
This pessimistic outlook was echoed by our resident war-gamer who is calling it much the same way:
Could this be a prep clearing an air corridor to Iran in the process of short circuiting the transfer of deadly SAMS to Hezbollah? Stay tuned as the new moon approaches.
Why else would Obama admin officials leak news of these strikes to the media? I’m open to alternatives, but I cannot think of any decent ones. This targeted media leak is undoubtedly intended to muddle Israel’s potential attack plans. But Israel will surely stand alone, if necessary.
On top of this rather disconcerting Middle Eastern escalation, CBS is reporting they have footage of Iranian troops in combat in Syria. Does anyone honestly think Israel did not know this? Sounds like Israel fired a very timely warning shot across the bow for Syria, Hezbollah and Iran.
Part of one recent CBS report included this strategically key quote from John McCain:
“”You continue to call this a civil war, Ambassador Ford,” said Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona. “This isn’t a civil war anymore; this is a regional conflict. It’s spread to Iraq. We now have al-Qaida resurgence in Iraq. It’s destabilizing Jordan. Iran is all in. Hezbollah has 5,000 troops there. For you to describe this as a quote, ‘civil war,’ of course, is a gross distortion of the facts, which again makes many of us question your fundamental strategy because you are – you don’t describe the realities on the ground.””
Then our war-gamer continues./..
Now the pressure is squarely on President Obama, not Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. He’s under fire domestically on several fronts, and now the lone stable and true democracy in the Middle East is on the verge of war. If Obama bails on Israel, what ally in their right mind would feel they can ever count on this administration when the going gets tough?
With the ObamaCare debacle, the budget woes and Israel, I’m thinking the Prez isn’t getting a lot of sleep lately. That could factor in to his ability to form rational strategic responses if things continue to spiral towards military confrontation in the Middle East while domestic affairs and Obama’s approval ratings continue to deteriorate.
Happy Friday. It’s All Saints Day, by the way. I hope they’re all watching over us and that cooler heads eventually prevail here on terra firma.
There’s yet another angle to all this pointed out by my consigliere: “Have you noticed how President Obama is, well, almost distracted on the healthcare computer issues? It has the “feel” of someone just going through the talking-points while he’s really dealing with something else…”
Yep, noticed that – and his hair is graying too, something that seems to happen to the CiCs with some frequency.
Several unconventional approaches to market timing have been pointing to a serious market break in short order, including the new M2 Flow Crash Model, which long-time reader Greg Roberts has developed over here.
An d this is in addition to our own model which is shared with our www.Peoplenomics.com subscribers twice weekly.
Can I guarantee that something will pop in the Middle East this weekend? No, I’m afraid that’s not how things work. As we continue to look at our www.nostracodeus.com work, all we can say is that language to this effect is “out and about” but the horrifying possibility of a massive spiral into an out-of-control world is close at hand.
And it’ may not even take an attack on Iran as the “left-field” to set off a massive decline in markets with an initial downside target of 1,540 on the S&P. It may come from raw market internals which are bumping up against seriously overbought levels at mid-week.
Oh, and in the mahogany foxholes of corporate America, we’re getting emails like this one from a well-placed exec:
“G-So things from an environment standpoint are starting to look awfully similar to several months before the crash of 08. WE are starting to get travel restrictions and hiring freezes going on or at least serious slow downs, all the while our stock is kickin serious butt right now. So you would think things were good right?. It is at [xxx – redacted] which is the highest it has been since I got here by a long shot.
My point is these guys are smart. Real smart. They were about 3-6 months ahead of the curve in preparation for the crash of 08 and I wouldn’t be surprised this time around either. Just giving you an on the ground perspective that signals are sounding off that I think we could be in another imminent crash.
I don’t think that the people that evaluate things here would be making the decisions they are if they thought the market was going to the moon. Just an opinion from the street level.
Ah, another hint…and when we look at all of it in total, all we can surmise is that Israel this week did a little “land clearing” and “radar sweeping”. Given that a ground radar station might be moved in on a temporary basis in a week to 10- days, this means something of a fuse is lit and, as Dylan said…”…the hour’s getting late.”
50-50. But we’ll watch the final hours of today’s trading closely for well-connected players bailing out, or buying lots of puts, prior to the weekend. Index puts and commodity puts on things like oil should provide important clues before the day it out.
If it appears? Then you might want some of this. Or, look for markets to spook when auto sales figures come out this afternoon about 2 PM. Remember, autos had cratered in the past retail sales report and if they’re down in a big way for October, the downside is a long ways down from here.
More after this…
War With China? Dot-Connection Madness…
Something to think about, apparently, when the People’s Liberation Army is touting how it cam pop the U.S. with impunity.
And as if to follow up, the Chinese state media Xinhua this morning is sending a very pointed message to the West with it’s special pictorial focus on how its military is to be feared…
China has moved a spy ship near Hawaii, no doubt because they have heard the rumors floating around the ‘net that there is gold in Australia’s outback in eucalyptus trees and since they might grow on Hawaii the Chinese obviously want a heads up in case the Obama administration digs the whole island chain and ships it (with a few cases of MiracleGro) to Fort Knox to replace the German gold which is being demanded.
And speaking of which, the Merkel folks may try to talk with Ed Snowden…to see if he knows anything useful to them.
In an alternate reality, China is spying on Uncle (Peeping) Tom…
Who would have thought it would be Peeping Toms versus Peking Toms? Damn, I love it when wryrony is served for breakfast.
Washington’s Data Gap
We can’t help but echo the report that only six people were able to sign up for Obamacare on the first day of operations.
But what really, really concerns me is the allegation that they don’t have accurate figures on site use because, sorry to report, the fact is that kind of stuff just falls out of any good website.
I assume you have figured out by now that the Saturday Night Live skit was an attempt at HUMOR, not a software development plan?
I’ve put some great thought into your predickament: See the following? Early morning hours real-time Google Analytics snip of my two-bit website:
This is called “Google Analytics” and it is both real-time and free. Ya’ll oughta think about it.
Why not just report Google analytics and number of completed records in the database? If I can do real-time analytics, free, what have you been squandering my tax money on? You’re doing tracking already, right?
The ‘’Merican people ain’t idiots and you have something to deal with besides a data gap.
“Credibility Gap” which ya’ll seem to be growing by the minute back there…
Ure pal, juss tryin’ ta hep out…
ViceGrips, please? More pinch to the inch in the news this morning than I can deal with.
Oh, Kitty Pee
As long as we’re talking about grown up computer issues, how about this week’s headline “Dell users: Latitude 6430u laptops ‘smell of cat urine…”
“Why is Hillary Clinton’s popularity sliding?” wonders a headline.
I’d write the erudite response but we don’t have all morning. Benghazi is one that comes to mind…
Hungry for Change?
Uh…change is what folks voted for, right? Although keeping Joe Biden on the ticket was apparently touch and go for a while.
Flare ‘em and Scare Um
Nothing like a good dose of solar flares to get people worked up going into the weekend, is there? 28-solar flares in the last seven days, reports an LA Times piece.
If you’re a long-time reader you already know about Faraday cages, transient voltage suppressors and about the only thing to remind you of is to pick up this year’s freshest seeds for restarting on the far side…
We’ll be able to dial in the worry level in a week or so when the next sunspot report comes out.
Pass It On – The Living Daylights
Don’t forget to fall back this weekend. I’ve been making a career of falling back for almost 40 years, now…Which time will bars close this weekend is a good one? And does everyone get an hour of overtime on Sunday? Oh, my head hurts…off to breakfast and to regain contact with sanity…
I HATE daylight time. It’s a huge scam to get us all to delude ourselves. It’s part of the conditioning that makes us buy government edicts. If kids need to start school at a different time to safety reasons, change the school schedule, not every clock in America!
FMTT is it that hard to figure out? Daylight Time is a mind-control scam. Watch out for it.
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