Elections: Ebola and Immigration Will Have to Wait

So will the rally in the US stock market.  The futures are down about 40 points when I looked  earlier, though car sales will help,  and we can now see how the markets are telegraphing the most likely outcome for tomorrow’s republicon romp.

What the markets seem to be telling us about the future scripts out like this:

  • The GOP will win the Senate
  • This will set up a divided government
  • This will be very, very bad for the economy
  • And so we are in buy the rumor, sell the news mode..the news being tomorrow’s election.

There, that’s pretty simple, isn’t it?

As to Ebola?  A scientist is predicting 130 cases in the USA before the year is out.  In order for that to occur, it would be statistically satisfying to see a new case, or three, this week.  But I’ve got a $5-bet that says we won’t have any new cases reported until Wednesday.  Don’t want people staying home because traditionally, R’s take an edge in bad weather so anything to keep the fair-weather libs in ought to be panned by corpmedia.  So it will be so…

Same thing with immigration, though to a lesser extent.  The president was heckled in Connecticut for not getting more done.  But he blamed the other party – the R’s  But as to the executive amnesty which will likely be here within three weeks?.  Well, that will track between now and January because when the new Senate takes office we will be in what we’re really been stuck in all along:  A divided country.

Except with Version 2.014 of the software that runs ‘Merica, a new “feature” will be added.  Think of it as the BSOD of Windows, except without customer support.  A White House-Congressional Impaction is what an oral surgeon might call it..  Patient symptoms include Tourette’s-like speech, disorientation, fever, and paralysis.

An intelligent bet, therefore, would be to cash in any long positions and be ready to go short.  The market has arguably put in a double-top and with the recent decline, the 1,740 level on the S&P could arrive before the year is out – if I’m reading this right.

I’m not the only one.  Even my friend Howard Hill seems to be a bit concerned about this DC standoff prospect. 

If you thought Government Shutdown (1) was fun, wait until the R’s hold the Hill and the D’s hold the White House.  Any time either side attempts to do anything… it will be a full-scale press battle.  Which we all lose.

By the way, my recommended read  this morning is not a press release.  You don’t really think we would have any major final confessionals before elections, did you?

Instead, read Howard Hill’s discussion of what it’s like to be one of the world’s first “financial engineers”.    Or look at the futures and weep.  Either way, I promise to let you know when Howard’s new book is out. 

Do try to save a box of Kleenex for Wednesday through Friday, though.  We may need it when the market realizes what the past week of manic rally may foretell.  Just as manic depressive episodes come following ecstatic highs, no reason we shouldn’t expect the market to act any differently.  Manic is manic, after all.

October 29th was supposed to be a turn date and so Friday should have been the high water mark.  The next one comes in early December…and for that one, Ures truly is short.

More after this…

Saved by Car Sales – Again

One of the recurring features of the retail sales has been auto sales.  And if Chrysler earnings this morning are any indication, the auto sector may be the major thing keeping the economy afloat.  From the Chrysler press release…

  • 55th-consecutive month of year-over-year sales gains
  • Chrysler, Jeep®, Ram Truck and FIAT brands each post sales gains in October compared with same month a year ago
  • Jeep brand sales up 52 percent; best ever October sales
  • Nine Chrysler Group vehicles record best ever October sales
  • Chrysler 200 sales up 40 percent; best ever October sales
  • Every Chrysler, Jeep, and Ram Truck brand vehicle experienced year-over-year growth in October
  • Chrysler Group LLC earns nine awards at Texas Truck Rodeo; Jeep Grand Cherokee wins ‘SUV of Texas’ for fifth-consecutive year

So we expect similar good news today in other auto sales, so maybe the market can squeak out one more day.

Winter and Air Travel

Just as we got the earliest snow ever in South Carolina this weekend, Alaska Airlines is dumping up flights to Mexico…

The airline kicks off its new nonstop service between Seattle and Cancun on Nov. 6. Flights will operate daily through April 27, 2015. The airline also is offering new nonstop flights from Portland, Ore., to Puerto Vallarta starting Nov. 4 through April 26, 2015 and to Los Cabos starting Nov. 20 through April 27, 2015.

Hmmm… also in airlines,  a new route announcement from American:

— American Airlines customers will soon have access to a new destination when Birmingham, England (BHX) joins the network of the world’s largest airline.

Make reservations accordingly…  Or, do like me, and simply up the Vitamin D.

Short of the 5,000 IU pills, this Seattle Times story on seasonal affects disorder (SAD) may help 

Here lately, when I go outside to get my daily dose of vitamin D, losing my shirt along the way, I notice small small animals run for cover.  The Up side?  It has helped our Editor, Zeus the Cat, lose weight.  Something about doesn’t want to look like a human, at least this one…

Of Course…

the war with ISIS continues.

Oil or Nothing

With the pro-Russian rebels naming a new leader in Ukraine, we continue to look for further escalation in the slow-motion-war (slowar, more on this in th3e Coping section following) for the rich Ukrainian energy fields.

Oil is still under $81, so the foreplay to war could drag on.  I figure bullets will be flying again when oil passes $100 again, but who knows when that will be…hard  for any commodity to rally in a Depression, no matter how it is soft-pedaled.

(We can skip the debate over “soft-pedaled or soft-peddled” for now.)

Tangential Monday Disorder strikes!  (*TMD)  Raus mit ihm!

Word UK

We can’t help but notice how national healthcare in the United (well, once upon a time) Kingdom, is now talking about a brain test for middle aged people to see if they are included toward dementia.

Our question is simply this:  Does that include the PM and House of Commons?

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