Dumb Readers and Decoherence

Ure is in a sour mood this morning.  No, not your fault.  Mine.  Because I don’t administer an IQ test before letting people read this site.

It began  with a piss-ant troll commenting that “You were wrong” in yesterdays pre-opening comment.

Oh?

(Continues below)

 

WTF kind of loser would write that?  Sure, the Dow only went up about 20 points early, but the NASDAQ and the S&P (2,475.25 intraday) hit records. Record highs beget profit taking, but so what??  The run’s not over, as we see it.

Sadly, this person needs to GTFU and get some skin in the game. Obviously not a serious investor.  By the close of the market Thursday, one of my trading accounts was down $71.  I have spilled that much (back in the day).

And yes, markets will go down again this morning.  So what?

I’m not going to brag about how well I’ve done since the market lows in November – when our model correctly called a long entry – but we have lots of Peoplenomics subscribers up 30-40 percent in the period.

So a pleasant “If you don’t like our take on economics, don’t let the door slap your ass on the way out…

Sheesh.

Anyone who doesn’t understand that on a trading account you will have big up days (like +$800) and you will have some down days (like -$71 Thursday) needs to a) read some books, b) learn something about trading, and so forth.

This commenter has been banished from further remarks because we don’t tolerate bullshit or fools – or, in this case – the worst of both.

Decoherence and Markets

What is “decoherence?”

In quantum physics it is (write this down) the “resolution of superposition.”

Which relates to markets how?

We went in to the week knowing that we would likely be UP for the week.  But we didn’t know how much.

Why?  This is options expiration, of course!  Indexes expired last night and the underlying’s come off today.  Any trading difference can land in the pockets of the pros.

Now, I can tell you our latest estimates of how high (and how soon) specific indices will go, but in a sour mood (because of the aforementioned dumb-shit) I’m  keeping that for subscribers.

We use a proprietary technology to look at markets.  Last Thursday our U.S. Aggregate reading closed at 20,055.013.  As of the market close yesterday, we were at 20,273.881.  That is an 1.09133% gain in a week.

Now, if you have a modest trading account, with say $25,000, your account value would likely be up $272 and change for the week.  No counting allowance for income tax, exchange fees, commish and yada yada… But of course, no one will be exactly on the money.

That’s because of “trading noise.”  Sure, some will have done better, others will have done worse.  All depends on how you decided to play the trend.  If you played the Dow ETFs, maybe a bit worse.  Or in the Q’s?  Maybe better.

Markets are all linked.  But each specific market is subject to a “decoherence pop” where potential targets ‘lock’ due to noisy trading conditions.

For example:  While Bitcoins last week were in the gutter, we’re pleased to report BIC’s are fetching $2,764 now.  And, in my view, could set new highs in the coming month as the markets are due to roll up higher.  How do you say Mood Swing?

You see:  Everything runs (to some extent) in lockstep.  When there is an ebullient social mood, all assets rise.  When the mood shifts (as we expect it to this fall) we will expect to see ALL assets fall.

But they won’t fall in perfect lockstep – because of decoherence.  If you want to understand how trading works in the real world, read this whole bit from Wikipedia and learn:

“Quantum decoherence is the loss of quantum coherence. In quantum mechanics, particles such as electrons behave like waves and are described by a wavefunction. These waves can interfere, leading to the peculiar behaviour of quantum particles. As long as there exists a definite phase relation between different states, the system is said to be coherent. This coherence is a fundamental property of quantum mechanics, and is necessary for the functioning of quantum computers. However, when a quantum system is not perfectly isolated, but in contact with its surroundings, the coherence decays with time, a process called quantum decoherence. As a result of this process, the quantum behaviour is lost. Decoherence was first introduced in 1970 by the German physicist H. Dieter Zeh and has been a subject of active research since the 1980s.[1]

Decoherence can be viewed as the loss of information from a system into the environment (often modeled as a heat bath),[2] since every system is loosely coupled with the energetic state of its surroundings. Viewed in isolation, the system’s dynamics are non-unitary (although the combined system plus environment evolves in a unitary fashion).[3] Thus the dynamics of the system alone are irreversible. As with any coupling, entanglements are generated between the system and environment. These have the effect of sharing quantum information with—or transferring it to—the surroundings.

Decoherence has been used to understand the collapse of the wavefunction in quantum mechanics. Decoherence does not generate actual wave function collapse. It only provides an explanation for the observation of wave function collapse, as the quantum nature of the system “leaks” into the environment. That is, components of the wavefunction are decoupled from a coherent system, and acquire phases from their immediate surroundings. A total superposition of the global or universal wavefunction still exists (and remains coherent at the global level), but its ultimate fate remains an interpretational issue. Specifically, decoherence does not attempt to explain the measurement problem. Rather, decoherence provides an explanation for the transition of the system to a mixture of states that seem to correspond to those states observers perceive. Moreover, our observation tells us that this mixture looks like a proper quantum ensemble in a measurement situation, as we observe that measurements lead to the “realization” of precisely one state in the “ensemble”.

Decoherence represents a challenge for the practical realization of quantum computers, since such machines are expected to rely heavily on the undisturbed evolution of quantum coherences. Simply put, they require that coherent states be preserved and that decoherence is managed, in order to actually perform quantum computation.”

To reiterate:  When markets are in a period where a sudden decoherence will happen to many stocks and indices around the same time, you will see deviations from “normal” trading trend channels.  The way markets “pop” out of superposition is determined by things like solar influences (our Peoplenomics focus tomorrow) but even things like the weather, believe it or not.

On this last, if your trading education hasn’t taken you there yet, go read the David Hirshleifer and Tyler Shumway paper “Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather…” from 2001.

If you’re still skeptical, look into the work of Markku Kaustia (Aalto University School of Business) and Elias Henrikki Rantapuska (Aalto University) as they asked more broadly (in 2011) “Does Mood Affect Trading Behavior?”  From their abstract:

“The assumption that mood affects investors’ behavior in the field is gaining acceptance due to experimental studies and papers linking stock returns with environmental variables, such as weather and length of day. To identify mood effects this paper utilizes account level stock trading data from all investors in Finland, a country with significant variation in weather and length of day. While some weather-related mood variables and calendar effects are individually significant, little of the day-to-day variation in trading is collectively explained by all such factors. In contrast, we find strong seasonal lower frequency patterns that seem connected to vacations. “

Now, toss in space weather (specifically our Solar Cycle work out tomorrow in PN) and figure out the weather in the Northeast, a handshake or arbitrage and expiration dates and yeah, you can do OK.

Or, you can sit on your butt losing money and bitch because people who work harder than you make a lot more money.  You ever wonder WHY?

Mueller Goes Fishing

With nothing solid, but a lot of democrat/Obama sycophants on staff, we are not surprised to see that the ‘special persecutor’ is going down “We will find a problem, or make one” boulevard.

We are going from Russia emails to Miss Universe 2013 and God knows what next.

We ask – slightly tongue in cheek: Does Mueller have worms?

Meantime, still no sign that Mueller will go after Hillary on server data or on her setting up the Russia uranium deal for a payoff “contribution” to the Clinton Foundation which seems to us to be much easier proven potentially felonious behavior.

Will Mueller have the cajones to ask Untouchable Loretta about that PHX onboard will Slick Willy?

‘Course not.  The Swamp is in charge…and maybe Trump erred by not cleaning house at Justice, first.

It’s all theater, though, although we won’t name who we think it crooked.  There’s enough switchbacks it should be obvious, unless Ure blind.

Bash and Trash Dept.

President Trump’s Approval Rating Is Worse Than Any Other President At This Point.

TEAM TRUMP SHAKEUP: Spokesman resigns, more major changes loom.

BLOWN COVER CIA boss rips NY Times for exposing operative – but will anyone do well-deserved prison time for traitorous actions?  Likely not…such is double-standards America. Left journos get a pass?  Maybe on swamp missions…

And TRUMP’S SANCTUARY SETBACK SF judge refuses to reinstate executive order to block federal $$$.  But we expected nothing less than a regional court judge ruling from the bench for the whole country; he was, after all, appointed by Barack whozit of the Shadow Government/ liberals-in-exile.

All in favor of heaping the same levels of scrutiny, obstruction, general bullshit, divisiveness and malevolence on the next democrat president, raise your hands?

Ayes seems to have it…

Reverse Racism Dept.

NY Times reporter accuses white women of racism on city sidewalks.”

I Told Your: Friday Holds Little Meaningful “news”

Bag of NASA moon dust sells for $1.8M at auction.

Johnny Depp’s extravagant spending detailed in court documents.

Justin Bieber banned from China for ‘bad behaviour’.

Teens filmed, mocked and laughed while man slowly drowned.

Girl, 5, fined £150 for lemonade stand

And “Will Smith Says Seeing Star Wars for the First Time Was Better Than Sex.”  Might we recommend a good doctor for that?

Dow should drop 50 after the open…but the week is likely to still end up in the plus column overall… We’ll go over the Fed Money Supply numbers tomorrow on the Peoplenomics side and all will become clear and decoherred.

Comments

Dumb Readers and Decoherence — 48 Comments

  1. “Justin Bieber banned from China for ‘bad behaviour’”

    I had An interesting conversation with a young lady that was an american citizen but was born in Russia.. ( nope she didn’t try to convince me that Donald was the man.. ) anyway she was talking about how she would like to see some of her elderly relatives there ( grandpa and grandma aunts and uncles etc.).. my response was can’t you get a visa to fly over and see them.
    she said no..because of moral irresponsibility..
    Now this had me curious. she then said.. 1 she was a single mom.. that is frowned upon, 2 she has tatoos that is definitely frowned upon, and the didn’t want her irresponsible life style to be shared with people there..
    I found that extremely interesting.. I had never considered that our lifestyles here were bad enough to keep someone from seeing their relatives .

  2. Condolences to the NYT family on their tragic loss. Surely not another queen of spades coincidence has transpired. Odd as well perhaps that Veropharm exchanged hands between Russian oligarchs for $150 million in 2013, but sold to the USA’s Abbott for $300 million in 2014. Another coincidence is that the Russian investment bank overseeing the Veropharm sale to Abbott had the honor of a President Clinton speech in Moscow. The same bank allegedly also supplied a cover day job via a subsidiary for one of the charged Yahoo hackers.

    Just read that a Rothschild investment fund has allegedly bought a tranche of bitcoin. That coupled with the pump toss at Mrs. C. in Vegas could be aclast call to bettors? Free tulip included?

    Court pauses now for recess.

    • Now you have gone and done it, spoken ill of the queen of spades, and her russian friends and connections and her boozy billy boy pardner. You know, the topic the trolls don’t like to dwell on, see one kind of tyrant/traitor they can tolerate, the kind they can control, the other one, they hate, until they can get him under control, then it will be discharged hate at will and not so much.

      • You did see the WSJ journo who died days after this
        WSJ piece on the “Obamacare Republicans”
        https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-obamacare-republicans-1500419426

        Nope, don’t want to piss into the swamp too much. As the Haiti dude and now Rago seem to coincidentally be pointing out…

        Or is this another Clinton Arkancide? This article “Wall Street Journal Reporter Asks Russia For “Clinton Information” —-Turns Up DEAD 2 Days Later” seems to point that way.
        A quote:
        “A Wall Street Journal Editor who was investigating how a Russian Pharmaceutical firm could have been purchased in 2014 by an American Pharmaceutical firm while Sanctions against Russia existed against such business transactions, has been found dead in his New York City apartment.  The crux of the dead journalists investigation was how then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton influenced the transaction to be finalized, but only AFTER her husband Bill was paid $500,000 for giving a speech in Moscow.”

        More at http://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news/world-news/878-wall-street-journal-reporter-asks-russia-for-clinton-information-2-days-later-turns-up-dead but lumped in with the Haiti dude scheduled to testify and then suicided just two days before the Senate session…been a busy week for the defenders of the “family” eh?

        This Google search “Rago +Veropharm” will show you more – but not if you’re name is Mueller, of course, or if you’re with the FBI….
        https://www.google.com/search?q=rago+veropharm

      • Yep, George, seen it all; more to come, meantime the media is quiet as a mouse as to follow up as evidenced by their distaste of the Seth Rich murder fiasco. So, don’t expect an in-depth, day after day, on and on assault on our senses of trying to get to the bottom of it. Don’t think the deep state will make that same mistake again, shoot someone in warm blood and not rob them. Seems that was quite the juvenile assassination. But suicide, now that is down to a fine art. Seems now is a good time for EVERYONE THAT’S ANYBODY to make a video tape telling their family and friends that they would never commit suicide, just for the record, not that it is going to help!

  3. To the number trolls: In stock market trading, as is true of many successful traders, one can be wrong more than one must be right and still make a living. But you would have to have a basic education of how to safely play the odds without losing your shirt and limiting losses to understand how that works. So move along number troll, nothing for you to see here. You’re not at the appropriate mental age to start this class.

  4. Remember: they only send the goons after ya when you are getting close to either the truth or the win.

    Somebody must be paying attention.

    This Applys to both Trump and you George.

    Worked a 16 hour day. Super tired. Will go reply to Jon.

    • True that, already warned George, he’s on the radar, that is why he has a troll(s)-co-commenter hitting him hard, almost daily, and disturbing the natural order of intelligent life on earth and this beautiful place of intellectually stimulating life changing and supportive exchanges.

  5. George, we do count on the “high and when” to manage our small accounts and 401k.
    Please don’t let the fools interrupt the education you have provided the public for years.

  6. Jon;You are giving a very good description of how the people going after Trump are behaving. The MSM is not reporting all of the pedophilia busts going on now that Trump said he would crack down on. These people are desperately trying to divert attention away from this sickening worldwide practice among the elite Deep State…By the way, your rants and diatribes against Mr. Trump have the same emotional tone and schoolyard quality that Trump uses.

  7. Hi George,just got this from coinbase.what do you make of it?
    The User Activated Hard Fork (UAHF) is a proposal to increase the Bitcoin block size scheduled to activate on August 1. The UAHF is incompatible with the current Bitcoin ruleset and will create a separate blockchain. Should UAHF activate on August 1, Coinbase will not support the new blockchain or its associated coin.

    The User Activated Soft Fork (UASF) is a proposal to adopt Segregated Witness on the Bitcoin blockchain and could result in network instability. It is scheduled to activate at the same time as the UAHF.
    sounds like bitcoin v2

    • LOL – No one gets this but our readers…but let me give it to you straight.

      One of the big pitches for BTCs was “there is only so much of it” – it was there’s only so much gold and we will be honest, yada yada.

      When push comes to shove, BYCs are making up shit just like the Fed.

      anyone in denial about this is buying tulip bulbs as we see it.

      • Like I said, it’s all in the developmental stages. Bitcoin was the beta test. It’s only a matter of time until someone comes up with a GUI for the digital currency.

        Right now it is still at the Dir forward slash R phaze.

        It’s not different than the treasury coming out with a different style of $20 bill.

        Greed? You betcha.

      • Of course I’m sure some hacker at some point will think up the wrote erase command.

        Lmao

    • The number of bitcoins ever possible is still at 21Million. This is about how to speed up the processing time of transactions. As bitcoin was becoming more widely accepted the processing time to book transactions was slowing down. The miners finally agreed on one options to speed things up.

      They settled on this software fix called bip91. I have no idea about any of this stuff.

      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bitcoin-split-idUSKBN1A62T4

  8. Regarding Trump and the investigations. I may be wrong but here is how I see it. I nor anyone I know and associate with could withstand the scrutiny that Trump has been under for the last two years. Period. The average person commits 10 crimes before lunch as EVERYTHING we do has been codified into some type of(un)lawful behavior.
    This speaks volumes.
    Vol. 1) Everyone involved in government and/or law enforcement at that level is so stinking filthy dirty they can’t even open their mouths directly. It’s always through shadowy innuendo or inference.
    Vol. 2) Trump may in reality be clean as a whistle. This I highly doubt but if he was committing treason or treacherous acts why was he not arrested and pulled out of the race? Every move, utterance, and bowel movement was dissected long before election day.
    Vol. 3) It’s all just street theater to get get the crowds stoked for the big fight. You know, like Ed McMahon worked the audience for Johnny Carson. You need lots of hate and vitriol to punch it out at Gettysburg II or teaching Ivan and Wang lessons they won’t forget.

    If Trump is the turd he is being portrayed as, he would have been flushed early on. No there is something else afoot and I suspect the waters are being muddied to the point of no being in charge (I really mean responsible) for what is about to happen.

    • It’s pretty obvious, regardless of the drone jon going on and on and on, that the fix is in, how can 99% of the media all over the world, be against Trump 99% of the time, okay, those numbers dropped a tad, but really now. Let’s think back to those glorious amazing transformative 8 years under obamaGlobalista, did you even hear from the hallowed halls of congress and sea to shining cbs/nbc/cnn/pbs/msnbc/bbc, etc. the vitriol against that non-peace loving liar in chief who spent 8 years selling us out, opening our borders to thieves, murderers, rapists, and assaulters, while fine dining and golfing and traveling all over the world with the MIL in tow? NO, not a peepy squeeky about nothing, not even his never to be seen transcripts, or who paid for his college(s), or what qualifications he didn’t have! I mean, I don’t count the attempts at repealing obamacare, that was stageduggary meant to go nowhere, I mean really, ole NDAA (I won’t sign it), the Patriot Act (I won’t sign it), and so many more to count lies upon lies, got a FREE pass, just like the FREE healthcare for illegals, while he cut the VA, and understaffed and cut funding to the border patrol while he did dirty tricks to tie Fanny/Freddie profits to supporting obamacare, and spent billions to fund illegals via sanctuary cities. Yeah, the fix is in.

  9. George, read you every day, think you do a pretty good job on economics (except for that one little thing, ha ha), and really only get into unstable ground when you stray into politics. For example just today, you overlooked that Mueller is a Republican and Hillary is not President. Why even take on the impossible task of being a Righty cheerleader? Stick to what you know, is what my Dad used to say.

    Also, I came to your previous reply to me late. But no need to trouble yourself about the Money Launderer in Chief suing me for slander. Bullies and cowards only attack the weak. Plus, truth is an absolute defense. Best, Mike.

    • Criminals = even those who don’t make it into office – ought to wear orange – I mean WTF? Lousy Clinton apologist!

  10. George, you do an excellent job with your market trends.
    Some people cannot comprehend that no system is perfect every time out
    The single-digit IQ trolls seem to be everywhere,hence that is why ,at times,the ussa looks and smells like a septic lagoon.

    • DON’T FIGHT THE TAPE. No one is perfect & George’s charts have been right on.

      11/16/16 – Ure in trouble if you do:

      This – plus our Peoplenomics Oscillator being firmly – but not crazy – bullish, ought to have me on the Long side of the market and printing money.

      Unable to follow sound advice, including my own good counsel, though, I am still in my short position.

  11. As Bob Dylan said – “To live outside the law, you must be honest”. Donald has brought this on himself. Should we investigate Hillary? Yes and more yes! But to see our current mess as just Trump bashing leaves out what he does and says on a daily basis. Never in my life has the media turn away from a political car wreck. Someone needs to tell The Donald to shut up and do his job, but of course that person would be fired.

    • He can’t shut up. He has been told several times. He has had his phone taken away to stop Tweeting. But, he throws a 2 year old type tantrum, stomps his feet, holds his breath and does it all over again. He is too maniacally egotistical. Whoever said he was a good negotiator has never negotiated themselves. A good negotiator, like a good poker player, never shows his tell. That is the opposite of the Mouth in Chief.

  12. Here I’ll help you out ,invest in this it’s called back to the basics number one step one is the do this for your survival even if you are in the urban, and and it will increase your property value to know that you have a place to go whether you have hurricanes tornadoes or just a place where if everything’s cut off you can survive in the winter or you can survive in the summer

    https://youtu.be/wSi6xtgrrIY

    • In order to get a place like this you’re going to have to make some Investments especially young people and mine was in real estate in George’s in the stock market they both work pretty good don’t they George

      • FULFILLED not for feels. But you never know about people. Lol

    • Excellent, i do believe that millenial caller missed this post. People assume it is too hard to start, it is not, as we oldies have been told, ‘any journey starts with the first step.’

  13. My father raised us to know that the key to profitable interaction with others and this would hold true for interaction with the markets as well, is that you have to spend 90% of your time listening, and 10% percent talking. I think your troll from yesterday seems like he has well overspent his 10%!!! Thanks George for all that you do!!!

  14. Has anyone ever heard of a stock chart pattern called “BUYING VACUUM PATTERN”. I heard about it in a webinar from INVESTIV and they wanted $2,000 for a 2 Charter year subscription. The service is just starting & is in beta testing. After the beta testing will be $4,000 a year. Supposedly gets you in a stock at the bottom just before it is about to explode. I left my 2 grand in TQQQ.

    • I don’t trust anyone selling any kind of service via a webinar or seminar…

  15. OK Troll – I was up $97.42 in my IRA and brokerage account combined yesterday. So far I am up $3674.68 for the week and while I will probably give back today, I AM a serious investor and expect that the market goes up and it goes down. I have been reading Peoplenomics and Urbansurvival for several year and I am nicely positioned to ride the waves even though I am 64 and have been retired since 2009.

    • Nice going! As I say, PN really IS worth the $40-bucks a year, lol…but not for those who live under bridges.

      • George, thankfully, I do not live under a bridge, however, I also have no skin in the stock market game, in any capacity (401k’s, etc.) yet, that is not why I come here. Here is where the gains are made between the ears, priceless, in my estimation. That ear charge leads to all things prep.

        Ear it
        See it
        Feel it
        Think it
        Do it….repeat, repeat, repeat.