By our East Texas Outback reasoning, Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed was the only one at the FOMC meeting this week who seems to “get it” with regards to the coming mega bubble and blow-off that could come close to doubling the Dow from today’s levels between today and a year from July.
Go ahead, write down July 24, 2018, then.
Want another stunner?
Even if you’re not subscribing to our (hugely insightful and profitable) Peoplenomics.com report here’s what’s going on in a nutshell:
Ure has this method called Global Aggregate trending he uses. As of today (like this morning) we are only 18 points (in a 34,000+ point index) away from breaking to a new Global High.
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When this happens, the market will scream upward and you should see a huge short-squeeze develop tomorrow that could tack 300 points onto the Dow.
As we’ve been reminding our subscribers for a couple of months,there has been a “collapse path” but that closes once we beat the 2015 Global peak.
Once it’s done, we KNOW the global picture will drag the U.S. higher – but what’s more, since the U.S. generally leads the Global, well, let’s just say that the next week or two should be stunning on the upside. Least-wise for the collapse-a-holics and doom porn peddlers.
Here’s another Stunner – seems we’ve got a boatload of ‘em this morning.
Dow 22,100 before the end of April.
Not precise enough? OK, mid session on April 20th, then. It’s a Thursday. But remember this edict from Old Man Labs where we’re still working on our Junior Econometrician Merit Badge: The further you go out in time, the more “iffy” models become…even an ARIMA.edu dropout could follow that one.
Tradable pullback in May/June on tap, too, in one of our backwoods whack-job models.
Anyway, pearls before swine – we’ll save the details for the paying customers. – Peoplenomics.com readers Saturday. Replete with how we view markets and make such outlandish suppositions. Even a “DIY” kit for the grown-ups.
But here’s one last free stunner that could be worth a pile – though this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. (Our portfolio only gained 1.35% yesterday…).
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In addition to the obvious impacts of the Fed Hike (like home loan, credit card, and auto sales which the WaPo outlines this morning over here) I’ll repeat for those especially “hard of thinking” the two major fallouts from the Fed decision over the next year should be:
1. Bonds will lose their luster. Stocks will pick it up.
Meantime: The Fed has over $4-trillion on its balance sheet so why not bundle and peddle it into a rising market or once a short term rate top is in by the end of this summer? Delish, Janet! (Say, wasn’t that move called ‘pump & dump back in the day?)
2. When the cost of borrowing looks to be going up, particularly when a 37-YEAR long term secular bottom in interest rates becomes apparent, what naturally follows on a massive scale?
Mergers and Acquisition. Hoo-rah brothers and sisters. Got some ideas there, too. For the Peoplenomics folks.
I only ran the model out to December 2018, which is almost two years. Doing so, and using conservative (sic) triple-levered long and short ETFs, if history keeps rhyming and if we trade it deftly, we’ll MIGHT be able to make an 8-10 times return on our initial investment.
Beats parking money in a bank where your money is THEIR ASSET doesn’t it?
The only fly in the oink-ment seems to be short-term gains are taxed like regular income, but some pain with the pleasure we ‘spose. I love to pay taxes, though – the more the better!
Brain-melting concept: I see an even-money chance the Dow will outperform Bitcoins in the coming period.
If we hit 22,000 before May 1, Peoplenomics will become more expensive than the $40 per year – try $50.
And if we pass Dow 24,000 before September, Peoplenomics will go to $400/year.
No that’s NOT greed. That’s because when a market system works, it ONLY works as long as a small segment of people are using it. Once mass adoption takes place, the benefit to the earlier adopters is washed out. We don’t plan to do that.
We don’t like terms like “washed out” so we may (like the Fed) raise rates this summer, too.
UrbanSurvival will likely become a “when I feel like it” because at that point if it works out, retirement (as in no scheduled work, just whatever moves me), will come into view.
So much for shop-talk. Back to the point…
Yes,. Neel Kashkari is absolutely “right” in my view, but that’s assuming the uberplan isn’t to collapse the economy a year from this fall (likely) as the ultimate embedded’s f/u to Trump.
Janet and the banksters are golden as long as the rally runs.
No counting chickens till they’re out of the roosts, though. Long ways to go between now and then.
Last little pearls?
1. Target for today on the Dow is 21,022.5
2. Tomorrow’s Dow target is 21,320.3
Not saying 297 points Friday WILL happen, but these are a couple of numbers that fall out of the Model. No, not trading advice. But I do have some matches you can play with…want some gasoline, too, kid?
So, What Kind of News?
There are three kinds of news in the world. Maybe four.
#1: Daily Grinding
There is the daily grind of Trump – which has become a whole class of news by itself. Trump rolls out a ‘hard-power’ spending plan — and now the budget battle begins and Trump’s Border Wall Gets Billions in Budget Proposal.
Dare I toss in “Immigration Ban Proves Trump’s Tweets Will Haunt His Presidency.”
#2 Under-Reported/Buried But Important
Speaking of the Travel Ban
And, care to guess who appointed the Maryland judge who blocked Trump’s plan? I don’t have the heart to tell you so click here to see but it’s no surprise.
The remnants of the Obama administration are still promulgating that lefty crap that incorrectly believes that U.S. laws apply to NON-CITIZENS.
Someone needs a law school refund, methinks.
In the weird twist (which the dimwitted mainstream fail to sell)_America really does need a sustained level of quality immigrants for economic reasons because the LBGTQRS trends are killing the birth rate in the U.S. Part and parcel of the divorcing for dollars festivals that wrecked the upbringings of so many Millennials. Can’t say as the trends are unfathomable. We new young Social Security payers – badly!!! If we don’t relearn our national sex drive, there’s no growth execpt the imports – capisci?
It’s just that we wrap up political-economic/demography issues (immigration) in partisan bullshit so thick you need a strainer to sort it all out.
And the lamestream media lefty’s (Rachel?) jump off the histrionics end of the pool instead of getting their defensible arguments in order.
Yeah…logic? Mainstream? Wisdom in Washington? Ure outta check into rehab, I suppose. I is juss askin’ too much.
#3: Acts of God
(yasda, yada, yada…)
#4 Fake News
Here’s how it’s fake (keep up with the class, please):
Suppose I had voted for Obama once (in a moment of gullibility).
Then further suppose I was arrested on a meth charge.
Would the headline in NYC read: “Obama Supporter Busted on Meth Charges!!!”
No. Wouldn’t be covered.
However, if I had voted for Trump (as I did) damn straight it would headlined all over the place as: “Trump Supporter Busted on Meth Charges” would be the NYC headline.
The leftagandists idea is to link all bad behavior to Trump so as to give the impression it’s his doing, you see?
New Yorkers ain’t ‘specially brite…
And after all the Clinton Foundation questions (still unanswered BTW) this is why New Yorkers are dumb enough to even consider a mayoral run by what’s-her-name.
Ain’t no cure for stoopid (sic) is there? On the island of Manhattan, anyway. Upstate? Sure…
Inquiring Minds and Embeds Dept
Stories like this one bother Ures truly very deeply: “Navy SEALs startled by Yemeni combat readiness in January mission…”
Smells to me unlikely that SEALs (or MARSOC or Rangers or SFs or any of our pro-level teams) would mess up on readiness level assessments.
Smell that? Thought I might have caught a whiff of a leak or embed…if I were placing a bet at the $10 window…
Since We Have the Dart Toss Ready:
Since we have penciled in 21,022.5 for a “perfect” rally today, what could support it?
Let’s peak at our press release du jour, Housing Starts.
“Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,213,000. This is 6.2 percent (±1.8 percent) below the revised January rate of 1,293,000, but is 4.4 percent (±1.3 percent) above the February 2016 rate of 1,162,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 832,000; this is 3.1 percent (±1.5 percent) above the revised January figure of 807,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 334,000 in February.
Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,288,000. This is 3.0 percent (±13.0 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,251,000 and is 6.2 percent (±10.4 percent)* above the February 2016 rate of 1,213,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 872,000; this is 6.5 percent (±10.9 percent)* above the revised January figure of 819,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 396,000.
Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,114,000. This is 5.4 percent (±9.6 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,057,000 and is 8.7 percent (±12.1 percent)* above the February 2016 rate of 1,025,000. Single-family housing completions in February were at a rate of 754,000; this is 6.5 percent (±9.7 percent)* below the revised January rate of 806,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 344,000.
For the visually-driven brethren:
There’s another release to consider, too: Philadelphia Fed Business Survey just out:
“The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 43.3 in February to 32.8 this month. The index has been positive for eight consecutive months and remains at a relatively high reading (see Chart 1). Forty-four percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in March, while 11 percent reported decreases. The current new orders and shipments indexes increased, rising 1 point and 4 points, respectively. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the fifth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and an increase in unfilled orders.
Natural Gas inventory report due this afternoon and yes, fracking should be loading some into the reserves, but it is still winter – as people in the Northeast may have figured out without help this week.
“…bet you bottom dollar that tomorrow, there’ll be Sun…” And a short squeeze?
With apologies to the cast of Annie, it’s quadruple witching tomorrow along with Industrial Production, and bleating (sic) economic indicators.
Yes sir, with Sun and a high of 40 tomorrow in NYC we are half-expecting a short-squeeze to drive the Model’s 297 point projectile.
But that’s then. Today just 72 points would be fine.
We may get it, too since 90 minutes before the opening, the Dow futures were up 60…so is there 12 points left out there somewhere?
Ask me at 4:05 Eastern, lol.
Kashkari’s right. Maybe for the wrong reasons, but standby over the next year for Economic Hydrogen, the good sense of Kashkari notwithstanding.
Then we go Hindenburging.
35 minutes from the open Dow looks up 58 on futures…let me find my gloat mask.