Dow 38,228? Kashkari Right at FOMC But So What?

By our East Texas Outback reasoning, Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed was the only one at the FOMC meeting this week who seems to “get it” with regards to the coming mega bubble and blow-off that could come close to doubling the Dow from today’s levels between today and a year from July.

Go ahead, write down July 24, 2018, then. 

Want another stunner?

Even if you’re not subscribing to our (hugely insightful and profitable) Peoplenomics.com report here’s what’s going on in a nutshell:

Ure has this method called Global Aggregate trending he uses.  As of today (like this morning) we are only 18 points (in a 34,000+ point index) away from breaking to a new Global High.

<begin rant mode>

When this happens, the market will scream upward and you should see a huge short-squeeze develop tomorrow that could tack 300 points onto the Dow.

As we’ve been reminding our subscribers for a couple of months,there has been a “collapse path” but that closes once we beat the 2015 Global peak.

Once it’s done, we KNOW the global picture will drag the U.S. higher – but what’s more, since the U.S. generally leads the Global, well, let’s just say that the next week or two should be stunning on the upside.  Least-wise for the collapse-a-holics and doom porn peddlers.

Here’s another Stunner – seems we’ve got a boatload of ‘em this morning.

Dow 22,100 before the end of April.

Not precise enough?  OK, mid session on April 20th, then.  It’s a Thursday.  But remember this edict from Old Man Labs where we’re still working on our Junior Econometrician Merit Badge:  The further you go out in time, the more “iffy” models become…even an ARIMA.edu dropout could follow that one.

Tradable pullback in May/June on tap, too, in one of our backwoods whack-job models.

Anyway, pearls before swine – we’ll save the details for the paying customers. – Peoplenomics.com  readers Saturday. Replete with how we view markets and make such outlandish suppositions.  Even a “DIY” kit for the grown-ups.

But here’s one last free stunner that could be worth  a pile – though this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.  (Our portfolio only gained 1.35% yesterday…).

<rant mode off>

In addition to the obvious impacts of the Fed Hike (like home loan, credit card, and auto sales which the WaPo outlines this morning over here) I’ll repeat for those especially “hard of thinking” the two major fallouts from the Fed decision over the next year should be:

1.  Bonds will lose their luster.  Stocks will pick it up. 

Meantime: The Fed has over $4-trillion on its balance sheet so why not bundle and peddle it into a rising market or once a short term rate top is in by the end of this summer?  Delish, Janet!  (Say, wasn’t that move called ‘pump & dump back in the day?)

2.  When the cost of borrowing looks to be going up, particularly when a 37-YEAR long term secular bottom in interest rates becomes apparent, what naturally follows on a massive scale?

Mergers and Acquisition.  Hoo-rah brothers and sisters.  Got some ideas there, too.  For the Peoplenomics folks.

I only ran the model out to December 2018, which is almost two years.  Doing so, and using conservative (sic) triple-levered long and short ETFs, if history keeps rhyming and if we trade it deftly, we’ll MIGHT be able to make an 8-10 times return on our initial investment.

Beats parking money in a bank where your money is THEIR ASSET doesn’t it?

The only fly in the oink-ment seems to be short-term gains are taxed like regular income, but some pain with the pleasure we ‘spose.  I love to pay taxes, though – the more the better!

Brain-melting concept:  I see an even-money chance the Dow will outperform Bitcoins in the coming period.

If we hit 22,000 before May 1, Peoplenomics will become more expensive than the $40 per year – try $50. 

And  if we pass Dow 24,000 before September, Peoplenomics will go to $400/year.

No that’s NOT greed.  That’s because when a market system works, it ONLY works as long as a small segment of people are using it.  Once mass adoption takes place, the benefit to the earlier adopters is washed out.  We don’t plan to do that.

We don’t like terms like “washed out” so we may (like the Fed) raise rates this summer, too.

UrbanSurvival will likely become a “when I feel like it” because at that point if it works out, retirement (as in no scheduled work, just whatever moves me), will come into view.

So much for shop-talk.  Back to the point…

Yes,. Neel Kashkari is absolutely “right” in my view, but that’s assuming the uberplan isn’t to collapse the economy a year from this fall (likely) as the ultimate embedded’s f/u to Trump.

Janet and the banksters are golden as long as the rally runs.

No counting chickens till they’re out of the roosts, though.  Long ways to go between now and then.

Last little pearls?

1. Target for today on the Dow is 21,022.5

2. Tomorrow’s Dow target is 21,320.3

Not saying 297 points Friday WILL happen, but these are a couple of numbers that fall out of the Model. No, not trading advice.  But I do have some matches you can play with…want some gasoline, too, kid?

So, What Kind of News?

There are three kinds of news in the world. Maybe four.

#1: Daily Grinding

There is the daily grind of Trump – which has become a whole class of news by itself.  Trump rolls out a ‘hard-power’ spending plan — and now the budget battle begins and Trump’s Border Wall Gets Billions in Budget Proposal.

Dare I toss in “Immigration Ban Proves Trump’s Tweets Will Haunt His Presidency.”

#2 Under-Reported/Buried But Important

Speaking of the Travel Ban

One of the federal judges to enjoin the Trump travel ban this week is Derrick Watson who, we note, was appointed by (look surprised, please) Lew Alcindor’s pal…er… Barack Obama.

And, care to guess who appointed the Maryland judge who blocked Trump’s plan?  I don’t have the heart to tell you so click here to see but it’s no surprise.

The remnants of the Obama administration are still promulgating that lefty crap that incorrectly believes that U.S. laws apply to NON-CITIZENS.

Someone needs a law school refund, methinks.

In the weird twist (which the dimwitted mainstream fail to sell)_America really does need a sustained level of quality immigrants for economic reasons because the LBGTQRS trends are killing the birth rate in the U.S.  Part and parcel of the divorcing for dollars festivals that wrecked the upbringings of so many Millennials.  Can’t say as the trends are unfathomable.  We new young Social Security payers – badly!!!  If we don’t relearn our national sex drive, there’s no growth execpt the imports – capisci?

It’s just that we wrap up political-economic/demography issues (immigration) in partisan bullshit so thick you need a strainer to sort it all out.

And the lamestream media lefty’s (Rachel?) jump off the histrionics end of the pool instead of getting their defensible arguments in order.

Yeah…logic?  Mainstream? Wisdom in Washington?  Ure outta check into rehab, I suppose. I is juss askin’ too much.

#3: Acts of God

Sampling mode:

Houston woman drowns in canyon tour boat accident in Mexico

One person killed in early morning accident in NO East

Woman dies in one-car rollover accident

Scott Co. school bus accident reignites concerns over safety of US-25

(yasda, yada, yada…)

#4 Fake News

“Okla. Trump campaign leader faces prostitution charges after being found with teen boy.”

Here’s how it’s fake  (keep up with the class, please):

Suppose I had voted for Obama once (in a moment of gullibility).

Then further suppose I was arrested on a meth charge.

Would the headline in NYC read: “Obama Supporter Busted on Meth Charges!!!” 

No.  Wouldn’t be covered. 

However, if I had voted for Trump (as I did) damn straight it would headlined all over the place as: “Trump Supporter Busted on Meth Charges” would be the NYC headline. 

The leftagandists idea is to link all bad behavior to Trump so as to give the impression it’s his doing, you see?

New Yorkers ain’t ‘specially brite…

And after all the Clinton Foundation questions (still unanswered BTW) this is why New Yorkers are dumb enough to even consider a mayoral run by what’s-her-name.

Ain’t no cure for stoopid (sic) is there?  On the island of Manhattan, anyway.  Upstate?  Sure…

Inquiring Minds and Embeds Dept

Stories like this one bother Ures truly very deeply: “Navy SEALs startled by Yemeni combat readiness in January mission…”

Smells to me unlikely that SEALs (or MARSOC or Rangers or SFs or any of our pro-level teams) would mess up on readiness level assessments.

Smell that?  Thought I might have caught a whiff of a leak or embed…if I were placing a bet at the $10 window…

Since We Have the Dart Toss Ready:

Since we have penciled in 21,022.5 for a “perfect” rally today, what could support it?

Let’s peak at our press release du jour, Housing Starts.

Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,213,000.  This is 6.2 percent (±1.8 percent) below the revised January rate of 1,293,000, but is 4.4 percent (±1.3 percent) above the February 2016 rate of 1,162,000.  Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 832,000; this is 3.1 percent (±1.5 percent) above the revised January figure of 807,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 334,000 in February.

Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,288,000.  This is 3.0 percent (±13.0 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,251,000 and is 6.2 percent (±10.4 percent)* above the February 2016 rate of 1,213,000.  Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 872,000; this is 6.5 percent (±10.9 percent)* above the revised January figure of 819,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 396,000. 

Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,114,000.  This is 5.4 percent (±9.6 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,057,000 and is 8.7 percent (±12.1 percent)* above the February 2016 rate of 1,025,000.  Single-family housing completions in February were at a rate of 754,000; this is 6.5 percent (±9.7 percent)* below the revised January rate of 806,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 344,000.
 

For the visually-driven brethren:

thurs1

There’s another release to consider, too:  Philadelphia Fed Business Survey just out:

“The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 43.3 in February to 32.8 this month. The index has been positive for eight consecutive months and remains at a relatively high reading (see Chart 1). Forty-four percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in March, while 11 percent reported decreases. The current new orders and shipments indexes increased, rising 1 point and 4 points, respectively. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the fifth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and an increase in unfilled orders.

Natural Gas inventory report due this afternoon and yes, fracking should be loading some into the reserves, but it is still winter – as people in the Northeast may have figured out without help this week.

Tomorrow, Tomorrow…

“…bet you bottom dollar that tomorrow, there’ll be Sun…”  And a short squeeze?

With apologies to the cast of Annie, it’s quadruple witching tomorrow along with Industrial Production, and bleating (sic) economic indicators.

Yes sir, with Sun and a high of 40 tomorrow in NYC we are half-expecting a short-squeeze to drive the Model’s 297 point projectile.

But that’s then.  Today just 72 points would be fine.

We may get it, too since  90 minutes before the opening, the Dow futures were up 60…so is there 12 points left out there somewhere?

Ask me at 4:05 Eastern, lol.

Kashkari’s right.  Maybe for the wrong reasons, but standby over the next year for Economic Hydrogen, the good sense of Kashkari notwithstanding.

Then we go Hindenburging.

35 minutes from the open Dow looks up 58 on futures…let me find my gloat mask.

Comments

Dow 38,228? Kashkari Right at FOMC But So What? — 19 Comments

  1. George you mention Bitcoin. Have you looked at Ethereum (ETH)- it is the 2nd largest by volume Cryptocurrency. Just 1 month ago it was going for $12.00 a coin, now it is at about $50.00 today. Hockey Stick!!! – and VISA is looking at.

  2. …..40…..50…..400…no way will be zero 00000…..for me.”i don,t trade on any of this.only wish you good luck but….dont get cocky

  3. “Stories like this one bother Ures truly very deeply: “Navy SEALs startled by Yemeni combat readiness in January mission…””
    The Yemeni’s have had a some time to get battle hardened. I could not imagine how hard it would be for US troops to go head to head with Syrians.

  4. I remember many financial guys on Coast To Coast over the years. I think even George Ure was wanting to overlay 1928-1930 over the 200x years rather than now. But surely what goes up must come down. Unless it is highly dilutive – if they print five trillion USD, then costs could double along with a doubling of the Dow.

    I really think we don’t want to see doubling. We should consider some level of sustainability – with an ability to consider 0% GDP growth as “darn it – that’s stable!” rather than the end of the world. I recommend steadystate.org for some ideas.

    As I always say:
    “Any economy that requires constant growth in order to survive…will eventually do neither.”

  5. And it’s going to be fun, fun, fun, until your daddy takes the T-Bird away !!

  6. News isn’t fake because you don’t think it should have been published or you think there may be bias.

    There’s nothing about that OK story that appears to be fake. Shortey was a leader of Trump’s campaign in OK. He is married with children. He was found with an underage boy in a motel.

    When you call the truth “fake news” in order to promote party propaganda and delegitimize the press you do a grave disservice to the country and your former profession. I also find it odd that the birther types are now whining about fake news.

    http://kfor.com/2016/05/04/oklahoma-republicans-divided-on-donald-trump/

    • It is called “fake news” because the if the same story came out about an Obama campaign leader, it would be buried not trumpeted. Because mainstream media is only run by a few corporations, news editors are only allowed to run stories that their bosses like.

      • This is what I’m talking about. Fake is an objective standard not subjective. Nancy and Trump supporters want to apply a subjective standard to what is fake. You can verify if something is fake – 24K gold, diamonds, designer pocketbooks, stainless steel, etc.

        When someone applies fake to a real news story we are well on our way to a dictatorship. And only believing the ‘alternate facts’ spoon fed to us by that dictator. Be careful. Be very careful.

      • my point is it was only an Oklahoma story – until the lib/press tied it to trump. Absent the trump innuendo, it’s a nothing because we have pervs in all state.
        Further, would the story have made the wire if it were a Clinton campaigner? I seriously doubt it!

  7. George, listen to last night’s Coast to Coast segment with the financial astrologer who once worked on Wall Street. He says 2019-2020 for crash.

  8. Now now George lets not be to hard on us New Yorkers, for Upstate is a whole world different than the retards from downstate Albany and the big apple..

    • Some good people live upstate, and even a few live in NYC. Unfortunately, they are all governed by the Empire bureaucrats in Albany. That, and the weather, are the two main reasons I left that place and never looked back, except to stay in touch with my friends.

    • That is the divide, urban versus rural, small town verses mega city, always has been and always will be.

      • Buffalo native here. Move out due to the way NY State “blew up” business thru taxes and other means. Looks like Buffalo is getting better now but whenever I go back “home” it’s the same. Fix the failing Niagara Falls and then we’ll talk about WNY successes. NF was a “world city of the century” back in 1900. Now it is a dump easily comparable to Detroit and Flint.