Decline Day: Or, Shooting Fish in the Barrel; S&P 1,820 Next

God, I love it when between Landry, my consigliore and me we can look so accurately into the future…

Maybe it takes a little bit of the fun out of life, if you’re a stress addict.

I mean that works until you’re 40-something.  But at some point your doctor will whisper something in your ear about blood pressure and life will change.

The double shot Americano talls will become single shot decaf Americanos.  You will turn down your ringer on the phone.  Music volume fades to under 85 db, loud clubs and dangerous situation change.

My son’s favorite phrase when in stress is still “We can talk this out or shoot it out…makes no difference to me…”

But as you age, you learn to look people in the eye and say “My lawyer is meaner than your lawyer” and that relieves a lot of stress.

Which gets us to markets and your retirement.

If we hold at S&P 1,812 or above (choice #1) or 1,740 (choice #2) then we should see a screaming rally after the Fed Meeting.

If we collapse past that, then we’ll all be eating Alpo.  That’s why we have been telling you for the past couple of weeks:  Rally before the holiday (check!_) but fade Friday because people who pumped will dump and you don’t want to be the dumpee unless you’re short, in which case Thursday’s highs was where that party was for the Sept puts.

Since the market is closed Monday and we will be partying on a cruise ship, pardon me while we kick it and wait for the washout low either the 10-11th or the 14-15th and that one should be 1,812 low max or 1,740, but we shall see.

In the meantime, there are more BS date-pickers around the net than you can shake a stick at which gets me to wondering do you think some shadow government or terrorist group is double dumb? 

I mean a) no one will be watching the tube, which is why Labor Day is safe.  And b) they sure as shit aren’t going to put a notice out on the internet because IPs can be tracked and what the hell do you think The Castle is all about?

(The Castle is that installation near Provo that has the moat around it. Not unlike The Fort  back in merry land.) 

Sheesh!  GMAFB.  “Go read Thomas Gilovich” is what I tell Schmita proponents.  His book,  How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life” explains in terms simple enough even I could follow along, how we are bred to use that gray matter thing to understand what’s coming to eat us.  We look for patterns.

Unfortunately, it  (Schimta)  was close in 2001, and 2008.  Two points does not a legit pattern make.  I don’t remember a market collapse in 1994, though yeah, a miss in 1987.  But 1980?  1973?  September is the worst month of the year anyway, so you could attribute anhything you want.

If people had any brains at all, they would figure out there is this thing called the National Day Calendar, too

Today (if you didn’t know) is National Wildlife Day, National Newspaper Carrier Day, National Macadamia Nut Day, National Lazy Mon’s Day, National Hug Your Boss Day, and National College Colors day.

If I wanted to get rich, I would come up with something closer to the middle of the month (*so I could claim “close” when the market declines like it does in September anyway).  I’m thinking the 13th is National Peanut Day and National Programmers Day because it’s the 256th day of this year, right?

So then I do some sermons, post them on YouTube, write a quick book and Kindle my way to retirement.

When that doesn’t work out this year, I retool for next year (selling sermons, books, and advertisements on a web site) because September 15th is Google Day or National Double Cheeseburger Day.

You see how this works? 

No one goes further back that 2001 because Schmita is a Jewish Lunar Calendar event and the collapse in 1987 was in October, not September.  But hey, don’t let me be the lone voice of reason.  I’m just the guy standing at the rain barrel shooting fish and looking for the panic moment before the Fed Meeting to go long.

The really amazing part of this kind of clarity of thought is people miss the really delicious jokes the Universe plays on us…the the upcoming one on September 16. 

THERE is a conspiracy for you:  The Fed Announcement on the 16th which happens to be (I shit you not)  “National Play-Doh Day.”

ROFLOL  Get it?  Play dough?  (I crack myself up with facts, sometimes.)

See how much fun we have here in the Total Reality Newsroom?  Anchor/Reverend George, presidin’.   Here, buy my doom book.

Now onto the Jobs Reports

Nope., no particular doom here, either.

Hot off the press release:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 173,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and social assistance and in financial activities.

Manufacturing and mining lost jobs. Household Survey Data In August, the unemployment rate edged down to 5.1 percent, and the number of unemployed persons edged down to 8.0 million.

Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 1.0 percentage point and 1.5 million, respectively. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for whites declined to 4.4 percent in August. The rates for adult men (4.7 percent), adult women (4.7 percent), teenagers (16.9 percent), blacks (9.5 percent), Asians (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (6.6 percent) showed little change in August.

Yeah, yeah…the market is tanked because the Fed might rate 25-bips in 2-weeks.  Like that’s a shocker?  They’ve been yapping about this since the Days of Ben.

The Reality Newsroom would point out how they pulled off this latest statistical miracle:

The Labor Force dropped by 41-thousand, which you’d have to be on crack to believe.

The number of unemployed dropped by 237-thousand.  But did they find jobs or did they simply run out the benefits and stop being counted?

The CES Birth Death Model only made up 83,000 jobs out of thin air, but the manufacturing sector is still imploding.

And the Table U-6 (burger flipping PhD index) was 10.3%, but that’s easily done when you add 261-thousand people to the Not In the Labor Force number.

In their campaign references, both Cruz and Trump (going from memory here) have politely used the 93-million people number.  But now we are over 94-million.

A little reality check from the archives?  Sure.

September of 2000:  Unemployment was running  3,9%, the number not in the workforce was 69.5 million, and  the labor participation rate was 74.5%,.  Supporting Data here.

Which gets me to my Labor Day point:  In the past 15-years we have reduced the labor participation rate by 11.9%.

In September of 2000 the average hourly wage was $13.83.

When we apply the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator, that should – just keeping even with inflation – now be $19.00

In this morning’s report?  It’s $25.09

So even though we don’t like some of the numbers, it is either a) a Happy Labor Day, or b) the results of consistently understating the actual impacts of inflation.

Look at your life style and make your own best judgment.  How much progress since 2000?

Futures are now down 175 on the Dow…think I’ll just stand here by this barrel a while longer.


Decline Day: Or, Shooting Fish in the Barrel; S&P 1,820 Next — 5 Comments

  1. Mr. Ure,

    As a long time subscriber you are clear thinking at the crossroads we are at. Possibly a chance in a life time market wise. Also maybe your thinking will keep my family alive during a terrible time. I live on the farm, was next door to my grandparents who were raising a family in the 20’s. Dad was born in 1922. We heard the stories and saw their actions. Thank you for Ure work.

    Regards and have a great time.

    Dave VM

  2. my psychic abilities are failing.. I didn’t expect to see any of this till after the federal reserve raised interest rates..then see this happen for two years.. Now it is a carp shoot. for me but you are hitting it right on the old proverbial nail head..

  3. Hello George about the airplane thing on the magneto it stands to reason that if the magneto was worn out, then all the related drive parts are probably worn out too but the extreme outer part would be the magneto like I said okay now the D parts that would next need replacing is the gear that the magneto reflect that comes up to or the shaft and then the gear that that comes up to so you know you can potentially look at a complete teardown because if the engine has been tore down those parts should have been checked with a lot of mechanics dont because because of whatever reason, but any access clearances will cause your timing to be off and or fluctuate giving you an erratic timing, if they neglected the check that then you need to also check your oil pressure see if its on the downside because the same thing happens with a low pressure through gears and shafts, just for something on the side I remember a friend of mine who who gave me a ride and he had a truck and he scared the hell out of me because he would make like to complete turns of a steering wheel and order to make it go to the left and you know same thing back to the other way to go to the right now like what are you doing and it scared the hell out of me I mean really ,so he’s rotating the steering wheel around this way and that way and had so much play and he said yeah I got to get a new steering you know mechanism there so anyway that’s the real side note humor

  4. Every time I use the inflation calculator I want to crawl up in a corner. I made more money at 20 than I do now and I am in a better position, lead others and pay more taxes. SMH

  5. Mr Ure…you are coming across as very whiney/angry lately

    hope you have a nice holliday!