This should be an interesting one…definitely worth keeping an eye on.
For one, we have the Empire State (NY) Fed Manufacturing report just out:
“The June 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business conditions worsened slightly for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index fell five points to -2.0, its second negative reading in the past three months. The new orders index fell six points to -2.1, and the shipments index edged down to 12.0. Labor market indicators pointed to a small increase in employment levels and the average workweek. Price indexes were little changed. At 9.6, the prices paid index remained near last month’s multiyear low, and the prices received index held steady at 1.0, indicating that selling prices were flat for a second consecutive month. The index for future general business conditions retreated in June, suggesting that optimism about future business conditions waned.
And we should get fresh data on industrial production in a few minutes. But this waning optimism stuff is precisely why the Fed can’t do bupkis except talk a hard game in their meeting this week.
It’s theatre for the cowardly investment and banker types, who actually give a rip about it. You’d care too if you could get free bailout money and turn in sacks of questionable loans for real money…but we don’t have that honor, so where were we?
The Fed is not in a position to raise rates and likely won’t until their September meeting. A discussion about how that would be relatively similar to the position the Fed found itself in during the closing days of 1927 can be found over on our www.peoplenomics.com website, but if you think there could still be a blow off top to come, that is a possibility.
And while all the prophets of doom have been regurgitating the same old spew, we have been one of the few places on the net that has taken a measured approach to things, using our Trading Model, which – in case you aren’t a Peoplenomics® reader – has been more right that about 90% of the $300 a year (and up) newsletter writers out there.
No worries..investors are more prone to doom porn than most, although investors cover up their weak psychological underpinnings by using terms like “contrarian” which sounds oh, so much nicer, than something like fearful, whining, overly self-medicated, survivalist.
I’m a contrarian, too…just not when the market is going up.
So we will get around to Wednesday and that’s when we will have a real burst of speculation (in time for our Thursday report) which will feature more wannabe linguists than you can shake the tape at.
They will all take the words of Princess Janet and infer somewhere between Nirvana is breaking out or the sky is falling. We’re back in cash…drama is fine, and all, but the odds of the world actually ending Wednesday are less than 1 in a million.
Still, could happen, I suppose. If it does, you’ll regret going in early to work today.
The last half of the week, therefore, shapes up as a trifecta for the markets: Fed decision Wednesday, Consumer Prices (which will be up a tad, thanks to rising gasoline prices) and then quadruple witching for markets on Friday.
Think this is exciting? Well, maybe not, but it is what it is.
Earlier, the market was set to open down a hundred, or so, on the Dow. Seems someone besides me is paying attention when Janet of Fed-Speak said the markets were overpriced.
The Fed slammed the brakes on with the money supply figures. M1 actually went negative.
So this means there will be less “easy money” around and this will push up the value of the dollar, which will drive down the market.
Two reasons why down: First is that given earnings for the next 6-months to year are already in the pipeline, any increase in inflation expectations will simply mean with relatively fixed earnings, the dividends might now buy as much, so stock prices will adjust down.
The other things is simple supply and demand. Remember our can of beans discussion this weekend? If you only have a dime in your pocket, the price of a can of beans can be a dime. When you have a $10-bill, the price of beans will be much higher.
That’s how markets and money work…but then don’t make things so obvious in school. Besides, they can’t. If too many people understood the basics of investing, we wouldn’t need the huge financial services industry and they could all be replaced by computers.
Which is happening anyway…but another tale for another time.
Meanwhile, I’ll wake up once we get down to S&P 2,040 which I’ve been telling you is the pitched battle area to come for months…
Drama Queens of Euro land
Yeah…soi what if Greece fails…I mean really…except for some loudly whining bondholders, who gives a rats hind?
Doesn’t stop the EuroDrama today, but pluh-leese!
Here’s the real truth…which doesn’t show up too often on the ‘net.
Fact is Iceland proved that a country can get along just fine without the greedy international banksters trying to get a hand up everyone’s ying-yang.
Remember when Iceland was going to topple the world financial system because they wouldn’t kiss banker-butt?
Well hidden (you have to know where to look for such things) we see that Iceland (without the crooks) has worked its way up the list of Forbes best places in the world for business
Iceland is #15 in the whole world…the USA (where we kiss banksters at every turn) is 18th.
Another place that threatened to blow over the financial world by telling bankster to piss up a rope – IRELAND is #4 globally.
So do bankers matter? No.
As long as we can keep them from getting control of armies, it’s a lot like stiffing Guido and Luigi but hiding the bat. Absent arms bankers are pretty useless.
And they know it. That’s why they try to put things like taking your house if your car gets repossessed…if you don’t read all the fine print and X out their greedy freaking scams..
Drama Queens all…but the world still comes back to some common sense. Namely that there is something called loss of principle and that’s part of what interest charges are supposed to be for. It’s not a licensing to financially kill.
Though they’d have you believe otherwise.
Headlines that Europe is preparing for a state of emergency have it all wrong.
Europe might actually be a much saner place if they can wrest power back from the bankster class that stole it.
No More YAB-YAC Dept.
A YAB is yet-another-Bush” while a YAC is “yet-another-Clinton”. And since both parties have sold America out on TPP – another vote likely this week, we are reduced to seeing which corporate shill can raise the most money, and then turn around and buy the Presidency.
On sale in 2016 in a country near you. Quality? Doesn’t freaking matter. This is all about media buys and likes.
Which gets us to the YAB about to toss in (which I throw up).
Which is really rich of the YAC-herself to speak on: Hubby Bill about did in America with his NAFTA crap back in 1993.
I have to assume bad judgment runs in the family, or rubbed off, so to speak.
(Who me? Irreverent? LOL, gee – yah think? Naw — I have a low BST – BS Tolerance.)
I’m not the only one who says TPP will facilitate NAFTA-like jobjacking on steroids. But if you want to believe the lies, fine.
Just send me your copy of the STILL SECRET BILL so we can be on the same footing.
There’s anti-Americans all over the Middle East, and now on Capitol Hill. Attacking our core values; one of which is open debate on issues.
Blood, Sex and Video Dept.
Little fire-house story: Every once in a while, the old crew (years and years ago) at Engine 37 in Seattle would manage to watch a TV show. while wolfing down some food after a fire and an air run or two earlier in the event.
They loved the Untouchables. Pappy, Califano, Ninky, and whoever would watch the show and count up the number of people killed as Elliott Ness (Robert Stack played him) cleaned up Chicago.
I seem to recall they got up to 32 rubbed out in one episode…prompting Pappy to warn us kids not to sit too close to the TV: Don’t want to get blood on you.
Well, fast forward to today’s headlines:
If you watch it, our only advice is a) don’t sit too close to the TV, you’ll get blood all over the place. And b) the human brain is a garbage in, garbage out machine. We put violence in a hundred million living rooms every night and are surprised when America gets violence.
FMTT: Where’d they get that idea?
We don’t have a channel 50 here, but I’ve been staring at it for weeks trying to get all those shades of gray…oh mercy.