Coping: BTCs versus “News Polarization”

A reader was wondering why our Peoplenomics.com column Wednesday didn’t focus on the firing of FBI whozzit James Comey.

The answer is simple.  But it deserves some discussion here.

That’s because Peoplenomics is about making money, getting a sustainable lifestyle going, and getting good value in return for the hard work you put into life.  From this perspective, Comey placed a weak second place to a bigger story:  Our outlook for Bitcoin pricing in coming months.

(continues)

You see, in GeorgeLand, there has to be a “use case” for news.

Oh, sure, I covered the Watergate mess with Nixon and all, but that was a case where the smoking guns were all over the place.  Even so, while it was nearly a Constitutional crisis, in the end Nixon resigned and end of story.  So it all worked out.

The Comey case has no such weight.  After 7-months, and a total FBI failure to plug Obama embed leaks about many critical policies, Comey wanted a big increase in budget to do the job he should have already completed.

In other words, he wanted to go fishing.

Given his emphasis didn’t seem to line up with what America’s interests were, he was given the boot.  But I’m confident that at least Hillary Clinton and Barack O. will weigh in…it’s just the way such thing operate.

Hell, Comey might even get himself a book deal.

But on to this morning’s point:  Was there – or is there today – any way that you could personally profit or become more valuable as a person from having excruciating details about Comey’s boot?

I don’t see it.

We chose in Peoplenomics to relegate the Comey story to second lead…but it didn’t rise to the strategically important level that we use when selecting stories for our Focus section in Peoplenomics.

That’s the part – after a dozen or more charts in my unique way of looking at Aggregate Markets – that has done things like getting us long in November when no one else was making such calls.

And for what it is worth, we remain long today because of the method I laid out for short-term trading in the ChartPack Wednesday.

I led with Bitcoin pricing because several subscribers had requested an update.

It’s sometimes a little frustrating for me to do things like updates on Bitcoin.  I said a long time ago (3+ years) that BTCs would likely head back toward $2,000 per ounce, but not until a wave 2 down was complete.

And that went down to the $280 region.

As I was thinking about BTCs on a trip up to Tyler, Texas Wednesday, though, a somewhat frightening thought came along.

Maybe – instead of looking at BTCs purely from a fiduciary standpoint (I love fiduches, though) I should look at them a “Predictive Currensolovency.”

Huh?

Look here…let me get out the big graphics toolkit and ‘splain you, Lucy…

First thing I want you to look at is this 4-year view of BTC pricing…

The key thing is look at the timespan:  See how it will take from Jan 2015 to this summer to do one (peak to peak) wave?

Call it 2 1/2 years…with me so far?  One up, two down, three up in Elliott terms.

Then we should have four down (wave 4 correction) and then blast into a final top in another…well, how about 2 1/2 years?.

Let’s run it out here:  Say we get the peak July 1 this summer to make things easy.  Not saying it will be so – could be over before or after.

But then we would expect the wave 4 down (price predictions in the Peoplenomics report Wednesday) and then a final blow-off top.  That top should come right around year-end of 2019 into 2020.

And all THAT would fit perfectly with my consigliere’s work (from 1979) that it’s about here you can expect nuclear, chemical, and biological war.

(Is this fun, or what?)

There is a rhyme, of course.

I think where BTCs will go, after the recovery from WW III will be much the same role as Trading Stamps in the earlier period of history:

The use of trading stamps grew with the spread of chain gasoline stations in the early 1910s and the then new industry of chain supermarkets in the 1920s. Merchants found it more profitable to award them to all customers rather than cash only customers.[9] Legal challenges regarding the use of trading stamps were raised in various jurisdictions around the United States but were often struck down.[3][10] Some merchant groups disliked trading stamps and actively worked to have them banned in their areas.[11] Following World War II the use of trading stamps expanded when supermarkets began issuing them as a customer incentive. By 1957 it was estimated that nearly 250,000 retail outlets were issuing trading stamps with nearly two thirds of American households saving various trading stamps. During this time trading stamp companies had between 1,400 – 1,600 retail centers were consumers could redeem their trading stamps for consumer goods.[3] In the early 1960s, the S&H Green Stamps company boasted that it printed more stamps annually than the number of postage stamps printed by the US government.[6] In 1968 it was reported that more than $900 million in stamps were sold in the United States.[1]

So do BTC’s eventually become a kind of analog to the trading stamps?  Remember, there have been trading stamps with stated equivalent cash values.

Makes more sense that getting grocery store “credits” than won’t work anywhere else.

I see retailers gathering around the BTCs as a kind of super trading stamp providing an interest and novel evolutionary track for BTCs, but time will tell and let’s see which our targets “come in” for Wave 3 up.

Sorry to get off into a PN-like discussion, but lots of people ask all the time about BTCs.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

Comments

Coping: BTCs versus “News Polarization” — 20 Comments

  1. Ah, the discussion of trading stamps sure brings back memories. Around 1959 or 1960 we used to get S&H Green Stamps at the grocery every week; my parents let me have them and I was able to amass 15 books! Believe it or not, I walked to the redemption store about a mile from the house in Miami and used them (at 12 years old) to pick up a single-shot 12 gauge shotgun that I still have today! Walked home with it on my shoulder down the main drag and no one even gave me a second glance! Imagine that happening today.

  2. when it comes to Trump most people are on the same book but not as many people are on the same chapter and the people that are on the same page it’s very controversial so let’s go ahead and see what sinks the ship or sets up the ship for the next round, will it be Trump or will it be Andrew basiagohttp://andy2020.net/proposals/

    It’s a racket

  3. Comey appears to have been equally disliked by both parties, though probably appreciated for his deep state loyalty. He was a PIA for the current administration since it started, though he did a fair job of explaining why Hillary should be prosecuted.

    Last night Donald Trump posted a fascinating video on Twitter showing many democrats denouncing the guy. LOL.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/862460991451344896

    It seems that the democrats are only complaining about WHO fired Comey.

  4. taking BTC profits this week, as it passes $1860!
    Silver.com exchange for Phizz!
    not so bad…

    • Better late than never. President Trump was put in a difficult situation by the “Russian” nonsense. No evidence of any sort has been produced to indicate there was any Russian involvement in the election, and none indicating a Trump/Russia conspiracy. The president was told by Comey THREE times that he was NOT under investigation.

      The director was incompetent under Obama and incompetent under Trump. His loyalties were in question regarding both. He needed to go, but was using his fictitious and non-existent “investigation” to delay his exit. Quite rightly, our president fired this incompetent without fanfare. The fanfare was that of a disappointed press that they didn’t get advanced notice. For the actual dismissal letter, see:

      https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/862064373656956928

      I’m glad Comey is gone. I can now hope for a competent replacement and further rooting out of corruption in our great country.

      • Comey said he never told Trump that he was or was not not under investigation, once, twice and definitely not three times. That is ethically and legally wrong to do so. More important, it is the job of all FBI official to be impartial. They are loyal only to the well being of America. They can’t play favorites. They owe zero loyalty to the President or any party.

        The Russian investigation is not nonsense, believe me. The FBI, without Comey, is continuing the investigation. In fact, I am sure they will ramp it up.

        Trump also told yet another lie when he said that the morale at the FBI was low because of Comey. The opposite is true. The acting director today even said that he and the bureau have tremendous respect for Comey.

        As for the firing of Comey, nobody in the White House can get the story straight. Did Rosenstein suggest it to Trump? Did Trump direct it to Rosenstein? Pence and Spicers substitute this week both said that it was Rosenstein.

        Trump in an interview today said he was going to do it anyway, except for one big oops. Trumps letter to Comey said it was the recommendation of Rosenstein. The White house and the Orange-o-Tang in Chief are so disorganized and lacking of brain cells that it’s comical. The late night talk show hosts are jealous. The real life material is actually funnier.

      • You know, don’t you Jon, that the FBI boss serves “at 6the pleasure of the President” which means he doesn’t have to reveal – let alone be talking to idiots like lester.

        Speaking of which, you saw (E caught this with the artist’s eye she has) that Trumps chair was lower than leste5rs and the camera angles were set up so lester was “talking down” to trump?

        This is classic subliminal suggestion and bad – very bad to quote someone

  5. Oh, and one more thing as it relates to the Comey story. My very reliable sources tell me that there is one and only one reason why Trump fired Comey. He was losing his mind over the fact that the FBI would not let the Russian investigation go. Isn’t it odd that both Minister Lavrov and the Ambassador that is the center of all this controversy, Mr Kislyak, were quietly at the White House visiting Trump yesterday? A day after the Comey firing?

    I wish I was a fly on the wall. I may have heard Kisylak say. ‘Good thing you fired Comey or we would have slow chopped those tiny fingers of yours off with a butter knife. Now let’s get a photo of for Russian TV.”

    By the way, there was no photo op for this threesome for American journalists

  6. If WW3 comes in 2020 – 2024, then won’t the EMP finish off the trading desk for BTC ?? You may have a wallet with an encrypted hexadecimal string, but who will redeem your claim ?? Just sayin !!

  7. TG you didn’t cover Comey yesterday. My interest in Comey is confined to market sentiment and as it turned out I added $989 to portfolio yesterday although likely will give back some or all or more today.

  8. yeah I remember the green stamp era of a buddy on the Block was into it I mean green stamps at that time oh gosh that was like if you didn’t you weren’t into the groove and I was like wow and a very good thing it taught people how to save things and get something back in return for the things that you saved and then also people save money in the banks and you know the interest was higher than it was now then you get to though when you really wanted to say if you get your CDs and get up to 10% a lot of people that were saving for all those years all of a sudden found out well gosh CDs are going down the time you sold your Investments CDs went down to the crapper so the only area was just to retain real estate because even if your country’s going down the crapper other entities from other countries are going to want to buy it the price will be maximum because you’re at a minimum or at least it seems that way while they’re paying maximum price to invest and our minimum real estate well that’s what I did and Smithfield Smithfield Foods is trying to Buck that out yet I made a handsome profit but China in the long run it’s going to make more

    • Invest in the three (chickens)-(coffee)-(cigarettes) I don’t smoke but if I was dieing a cigarette would give little but immediate satisfaction the forth request would be a bottle of southern comfort,even though i do not drink liquor but once or twice a year, and if no sc was available some ibuprofen would suffice,while soul spirit seeks to rid myself of this long deserving exist from this body to a new one

      No I’m not going nowhere my body still got a lot of life left into it- lol

      • But I am getting Blinder and call up my co-op and say can you deliver and they say yeah and so where there’s a will there’s a way as long as it’s mine and not theirs have a good

        day???- but the part to consider is when they can’t deliver – How long will you last with what you have-Will what you have reproduce ???????

  9. The most concise synopsis of the Comey saga is in this mornings WSJ. Daniel Henninger wrote “the Comey Show”. Dovetails with you View and adds excellent perspective.

  10. Im trying to understand what blockchain is and does in its relationship to bitcoin.

    • Blockchain is a passion for me. Invest as much as you can in this technology. Not as it relates to Bitcoin, which I am not a fan of for a variety of reasons, but as it relates to the distribution of shared information. By design, the blockchain is a decentralized technology. And decentralized technology is the wave of the future.

      Information held on a blockchain exists as a shared and continually reconciled database. This is a way of using the network outside of financial markets that has obvious benefits. The blockchain database isn’t stored in any single location, meaning the records it keeps are truly public and easily verifiable. No centralized version of this information exists for a hacker to corrupt. Hosted by millions of computers simultaneously, its data is accessible to anyone on the internet. If any of you watch the HBO comedy, Silicon Valley, the main character is developing the new internet based on this theory. The art mirrors life theory.

      So, imagine the possibilities. Like Google docs as blockchain. The traditional way of sharing documents with collaboration is to send a Microsoft Word document to another recipient, and ask them to make revisions to it. With Google Docs, Google Sheets, etc. both parties have access to the same document at the same time, and the single version of that document is always visible to both of them. It is like a shared ledger, but it is a shared document. The distributed part comes into play when sharing involves a number of people.

      Blockchain technology is like the internet in that it has a built-in robustness. By storing blocks of information that are identical across its network, the blockchain CAN’T : Be controlled by any single entity or has no single point of failure.

      While the applications in business are limitless, the greatest asset of Blockchain is enhanced security. The network lacks centralized points of vulnerability that computer hackers can exploit. Today’s internet has security problems that are familiar to everyone. We all rely on the “username/password” system to protect our identity and assets online. Blockchain security methods use encryption technology.

      The one set of Trump appointments I am in total agreement with is all of the Goldman appointees. They get Blockchain. Goldman Sachs believes that blockchain technology holds great potential especially to optimize clearing and settlements, and could represent global savings of up to $6bn per year. I think the savings could by 100X that if implemented across platforms. It really eliminates the middleman in finance and security expenses in other industries. But, as with any technology, there will be a fallout with security companies like McAfee and Symantec. I am sure they will switch over to developing blockchain applications at some point.

      • All a.i. can hacked ,and all future a.i. will be hacked,

        Let me count the way, yep only one

        When you know the way
        Then you will say
        It’s all rubble

        And I AGREE

        The future is what you
        Can imagine and more

      • How long ago was it you didn’t even know what BTC meant, now you’re an expert. LMAO!!!