Coping: With Jeff’s Depression Concerns

Had a great subscriber email come in this weekend and I wanted to share it because a lot will fall into place for you, I think.  Here’s what he said…

“George, Just heard an interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth on the Federal Reserve.  I ordered the book.  Her point was, as is yours, the economy is heading back to 1929.  She said her marker is the volume of new car sales.  Your thoughts.  Thanks,  “

Oh boy…is that a “wind me up” or what?  (more…)

Here’s my answer to him:

I am not as worried about that one, since the problem with new tech is the old problem in sales.

When I was in the high tech world, I made the mistake of telling a customer of a new product we would have out shortly….

Owner of the company took me aside and reamed me good: “You don’t EVER mention our next product!” he screams.  “Sell what we have in stock!!!”

Point is that all this talk about self-driving cars (soon come) will drive a nail into new car sales until they get here.  If the automakers were really smart (and they aren’t by all accounts), they would announce a migration path so the car you buy today will never go obsolete.  But like I  said, they ain’t so bright.

Point 2 is that you can’t judge a long wave economic depression unless you take a fairly stable TECH and look at how it’s doing.

One of my consigliere’s favorite metrics of the real economy?

He called me this weekend to advise that all of a sudden, a LOT of single engine pressurized go fast planes for the business execs of smaller companies have come up on the market suddenly and prices have fallen like a safe.  Things like Piper Malibu’s.

He figures this is a more meaningful metric.  Also, since he’s in farm country, he notes ag land prices are higher than even the 2007-2008 bubble top.

The Ag value of our joint out here in the woods is now north of $300K, too…

I don’t know as I have been terribly candid with the public, but I will share this on Monday on Urban (without your last name of course) the REAL reason that Elaine and I are looking to move to the mountains north of Phoenix.  I mean in addition to being nearer friends and relatives.

We are even willing to rent or lease for a year or two and park the bulk of our dough in Treasuries and stocks, since we will do just fine in a falling market.  I’m not afraid of going short… made more money there than long over the years.

So if we sell our home in the next six months, then lease for two years, I figure it will be akin to selling at the top of 1929 and then coming back in – with LOTS of ready cash – in 1931 and buying at the bottom.

People think we’re stupid to even consider leaving what we have – and that may be – but remember we can lever up to a super-house n nearer kids…and if I have the angle of the dangle right (and with enough left over to not need Social Security which I figure will be dialed back in the coming Depressionary Slide), and we’re in agreement it is a worthy strategy to pursue.  So we are asking $329K for the well-prepped 28.82 acres complete, furnished, equipped and outfitted; spares and all.

If it all sells, fine, we’re golden.  Go ahead with Plan A.

If it doesn’t sell at full price, then Plan B and we’re golden, too.

And that’s how one should try to arrange affairs in this kind of world.  Try to set everything up so that no matter what happens you have a chance to win.

Thanks for the question – great one!  It is also the topic (in depth with scenarios, inflation data from the 1930’s Depression and some “what-ifs”) on our www.peoplenomics.com site Wednesday…

Around the Ranch: For the Birds?

Here’s something that caught Elaine’s eye Friday afternoon.  She’s always watching and feeding “her birds” and we get all kinds of wonderful birds coming through the property.

There was a bright red Cardinal on the lawn under the bird feeder he was “in the company” of a female Cardinal, as their color of the hen is a speckled color about like some of the tree bark around here.

They were inseparable.  The female would peck on the ground, the male would wander a few “bird-lengths” away – 12-inches or so – and then come back and “nuzzle” the female a bit.

Then the most amazing thing happened:  The male found something – could have been an insect or a piece of grain overlooked, but he picked it up with his beak, brought it over to the female, tapped her beak, then gently placed it in her beak.

She ate it. And then they nuzzled some more.

Elaine came into the studio where I was using a computer with one of those huge UHD screens and told me about it, quite emotional about it.  Partly because it was so kind and partly because it’s so rare that the “up food chain” species is so thoughtful.  Especially in today’s world.

I was kind of taken by it, too.

Sure, animals will feed one another, but this was more than like when Zeus-the-Cat brings us the remains of some kill to share because we feed him.

No, this was a marriage in the wild among small birds.

We’d heard, of course, that Canadian Geese mate for life, but Elaine had never had seen this kind of behavior here among the wildlife.

All weekend a thought kept rolling around:

If male birds in the wild can help look after their mates, how is it that the so-called advanced upright apes can’t model better behavior for their young? And why doesn’t government policy encourage it?  I mean in government policies (that split up families due to welfare/income thresholds) and the failure of education to keep a firm hold on  modeling “normal” for the wee ones.

It was a depressing, balanced off only by the realization that humans still have lots of room for improvement.  NSS.

We’ve made remarkably little progress in the past 5,000 years when you think about it.  At least compared to a couple of Cardinals at Uretopia out here in the East Texas Outback.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

Comments

Coping: With Jeff’s Depression Concerns — 28 Comments

  1. I am about the same age as you so same with health concerns, family, being rural and away. You seem to be voting with your feet. You are proposing moving away from solar, reliable well water, room for a shop, etc. It would appear you do not think the world is going to get as difficult as some think it might or at your age, you don’t care. This is an eye opener considering some of the life suggestions you make on this site. Being within range of a major city. Wow.

    • More in Peoplenomics tomorrow but… 1) new place would still have some food production capacity, 2) would be 100 air miles from main nuke targets (and nothing close) and 3) THE BIGGIE if you owned a home in 1929 would you sell and rebuy in 1930-31?

      • not if being in a rental put me at risk of displacement by owner in the middle of chaos ……. if I felt I needed to establish a garden which would be temporary and once again could be pulled away from me by the owner at their timing not mine, if I though I needed to store a years worth of supplies and I could be displaced by the owner at his timing, etc

      • But if you could double your net worth out the other end? That’s why it’s a full on Peoplenomics topics tomorrow

  2. I’m sorry I’m so giddy today answering everybody stuff but I got to meet a lot of people today because today was my youngest daughter’s wedding yeah old boy oh yeah everybody was like why on Earth would you want a wedding on a Monday anyway she had her reasons she’s going to Arkansas for her honeymoon I’m not going to tell you we’re at the present time maybe later but anyway there’s some fantastic things out in Arkansas that some people like because when we were younger we used travel did a lot of traveling across the country and Arkansas had some things that she dearly loved and said that’s where she wants to come back and have a honeymoon at and so be careful what you wish for thoughts have wings and she did it

  3. G, how long you see the frn being in existence? Is there validity in the Jim Willie scheiss dollar theory?

  4. Here, I just put on my fire-proof shorts for when I get flamed. George, I belive your bird story shows how I hope that in 5 human generations hunting is banned, in 7 generations the eating of meat is banned, and in 9 generations animals are given full and equal rights as humans have! And I am a meat-eating, hunting, fishing, pet-owning, gun-owning mossback from Montana! But I just feel and see the little changes that are happening, soon to be big changes.

  5. Hi George,
    Thanks for the explanation on why you are moving. But to mountains north of Phoenix? How about the mountains of Utah, Montana, Idaho? So you lease your place out and move then the SHTF and the people living in your home say “we are not moving out”. then what? That can get ugly and by the time they do move the place is destroyed? Honestly, where you are now living sounds like the ideal place to sit it out until things get sorted out.

  6. Sometimes as female birds (I’ve observed mostly finches) are trying to choose between suitable male birds, the males do their best to look good, like showing great color to draw away enemies and also prove he knows where nutritious food is. Males will also will bring and serve food to the female to show he can also provide good grub to their babies should she choose him. Finally both parents feed fledged babies (who have bed head) who have managed to figure out flying and follow them, demanding to be fed as usual. Hummingbird males, on the other wing, who are quite beautiful, swing in great arcs to show off their strength for potential mate(s). If he is successful, all he then contributes to the wedding is… semen. The female: builds the nest, lays the eggs, raises the kids, is usually chased away from food by the male looking for other unmated females (though I’ve seen quite territorial females, too), and she probably also leads her kids back south. There is the possibility that adults and babies will travel south together, which is nice. Last year I heard then saw a cardinal here in Albuquerque, the first for me since I moved from OK some 30 years ago; maybe they’ll begin moving here, too, due to our better weather.

  7. If you want to know why humans in North America are in such bad shape, you should read Dumbing Us Down by John Taylor Gatto. Winner of New York’s teacher of the year award.

    • It works. A study of millienials in 16 countries testing knowledge and life skills showed those from the USA in the bottom 5 in every category.

      Want to save the USA, there’s your team. Or else there is the team of millennials from the Ivy League that go straight into banking, finance, government and tech like google and Facebook for mid six figure salaries. Gerald Celente calls them the white shoe boys, Harvard, Princeton and Yale. A good example is the new head of the department of education. Daughter of a billionaire, married multimillions, sent her kids to private school, has never set foot in a public school. Or the new surgeon general, who is not an MD, for the first time in USA history.

      • could there be might there be is it really possible that they are looking up for the future by integrating species from other nations because our own species has been dumbed down-interesting concept= ic

      • @ EcuadorExpat –

        I think maybe the ‘white-shoe-boys’ and their sponsors aren’t as bad as the 6-month government employees and lifetime politicians you have there. But maybe not. It’s turning into quite the race between Alianza-Pais and Washington DC for “Most Corrupt Government”.

        My vote says that both your and my government retain some of the most incredibly stupid people on the planet…

  8. IMO the higher consciousness animal species (feline, canine, horses, elephants, some birds, monkeys/primates and cetaceans) have the same capacity for emotions than humans. Our only advantage is the prefrontal lobes that make abstract reasoning possible (at least for some folks.)

    What’s sad for me is how we humans don’t really use that advantage much for our benefit or the world’s. As scripture says, get knowledge and with it get wisdom. Right now we don’t seem to be doing very well with that.

    • Several years ago and for many years there was a pair of Mississippi Kites living in the nearby woods. When we were cutting pasture and kicking-up large green grasshoppers they would respond to the noise of the mower (or tractor) and start circling overhead (you could see their shadows). They would dive-bomb and pick them off mid-air and they never missed. They would sometimes come within a couple of feet overhead or in front of the mower. They were really great to watch and experience.
      About four years ago, after witnessing one of their “grasshopper orgies”, we stopped seeing them. For about a week or so there was this mournful crying coming out of the woods and we surmised one of them had died. Then the crying stopped and I didn’t see any until just the other day and were hoping a pair will “set up shop” again.

    • I’ve sussed out precisely what you did and for me, cats are the most fascinating. Other animals have feeling equal to people, but I relate more to some – not all cats. I’ve noticed the movements and actions of birds in the sky, and even squirrels and rabbits. They are all God’s creatures, as are we. It’s sad that we must eliminate bugs and flies, and I don’t enjoy it, but there are limits to tolerance.

  9. And why doesn’t government policy encourage it?

    I believe it started in the eighties.. until then the bread winner could earn enough to support a family while mom stayed home and watched the kids.I don’t know about where you lived but the neighbors were just like your parents and didn’t have a problem getting after you. then there was a huge movement to open the markets so that companies could compete. the bread winner couldn’t earn enough money to support the family mom had to go to work dad had to work double shifts or a part time job.. separation of church and state and left our childrens young minds open to MSM… have you ever watched some of the shows that kids are watching.. Not that the shows we watched were much better but there was less of it.. we had three channels.. and was forced to watch sing along with mitch type shows.. today with MSM on every device heck you can watch it on your phone..

    • and over seven hundred channels..
      Back in the seventies I got sick of watching love of life or as the stomach churns and built a satellite system. ( long before they were for sale) and today I wish that technology wasn’t available. we never told our mom we were bored.. she had you doing everything under the sun to keep busy.. you didn’t say.. boy that would be fun to do she would have you doing it..

  10. “We’d heard, of course, that Canadian Geese mate for life, but Elaine had never had seen this kind of behavior here among the wildlife.”

    We have a momma bird and pappa bird just like that.. I love watching her scold the babies if they aren’t doing something the way she thinks they should.. and pappa bird.. he’s hen pecked LOL yet he brings her food when she’s on the nest

  11. I was a bit concerned about you when I saw the location of the killer tornados in East Texas this weekend. How did you fare?

    • no worries. why things are so cheap in east texas the birds just say ch ch ch and the tornados don’t bother ‘cuz there’s no air time from down here