Coping: Prepping For Drought Refugees

imageResurrection and Drought for breakfast this morning:

We first covered the coming California Drought/Panic (and potential Diaspora)  back in January of 2014 for our Peoplenomics.com™  subscribers.

What I like to do with Peoplenomics™  (much more so than UrbanSurvival) is look into the future –toward where the data has been pointing – and project what that future will be like when it shows up.

So fifteen months ago, we were considering how the federal protections of frogs and such would lower reservoirs and how the rains had not come, nor would any be expected.

We know a couple of things about California – things modernists and Millennials try to paper-over with scare-tactics about Global Warming and – quick, hide under the bed! – climate change.

The fact of the matter is that climate always has been – and always will be – changing.

Al Gore and others currently reinventing climate as a business model tend to gloss over things like the floods in China 75-years ago – long before the effects of pernicious climate change.

To put a little hair on it, while the USA was going through the worst of the Dust Bowl from a lack of rain, as many as 3.7-million people died in China’s Great Flood of 1931. A factor not so deeply pondered in modern times is that populations density on the planet was much, much lower in the 1930’s…which means that a (population-inflation-adjusted) number could be in the vicinity of 6-10 million dead.

On the one hand, we can see that floods and droughts seem to be spread out over time and over large continental-sized areas.  And, if we care to review the data, we will see that even in fairly close proximity, huge swings in climate always have been occurring at regular intervals.

2013 saw massive devastation in Afghanistan and Pakistan due to?  Floods

Yet, right next door, temporally speaking, we had the drought of 1998-2002 in Pakistan and right now, the D-word is showing up in headlines again:  “Ray of light in Pakistan’s drought-hit Thar desert.”

That BBC headline is perplexing.  It leaves us staring into the coffee grounds this morning and wondering exactly what it is when a desert – already so-named because of a lack of rain – has what?  A lack of rain.  Most perplexing, indeed.

So let’s sit back and consider this California Drought problem a little more closely; without the climate hype and without the globalista’s minions who are trying to consolidate power, raise money, impose taxes, and thereby control lifestyles via whatever levers they can pull.

Don’t be fooled:  There are lots of levers to be pulled:  Racism, Terrorism, Global Warming….but it all comes back to what’s clearly explained in Report from Iron Mountain.  This book – whose origins are still debated – explained back during the Vietnam era what the problem of government was:  There needs to be a massive external enemy that presents such a threat, such an all-pervasive problem, that people will yield their freedom to government.

The book, by the way, points to only a few options, several of which are man-made disease, a massive global healthcare system, aliens from space (grown in Earth-based labs, of course) and a number of other problems.

Climate, I’m sure, would have been included in the book, but it wasn’t until the California Drought of the mid-1970’s that drought really surfaced as a government/citizen control point.

As I noted in my Peoplenomics report (again, this was 15-months ago):

Keep an eye on the major cities of California because a severe hit from the drought could be in the making there.

Just this week, the San Francisco Chronicle (the Chron) was advising its readers to be ready for things to get really, really tough.

Back in 1973 I was offered a job at KFRC and there was a drought on at the time.  The radio station was full of “If it’s yellow, let it mellow, if it’s brown, flush it down” pointers for the local people.  Putting bricks in toilet tanks was promoted, too.

That 2013 was a record dry year is not enough to get people to thinking about relocation.  But another year, a serous lack of water continuing, and that could all change.

But the big picture is already shifting.  In a report this summer for the Hoover Institute at Stanford, Carson Bruno wrote that there was already a 2% net out migration in the 2004-2012 data:

“Looking at age, we see the red flag: individuals are coming to California in their early 20’s and not sticking around. We find that only college-age individuals see a net in-migration into California; all other groups witness a net out-migration, with the 40-to-54 age group — those in the prime of their professional careers — having the highest level of net out-migration.  Despite college age individuals experiencing a net in-migration, the drop-off in the 25-to-39 age group suggests that these individuals are not staying within the state, likely due to the high cost of living in California and/or the lack of employment. “

How Climate Hype Works

To be sure, California has a water problem.  No arguing the point.  As I pointed out in the more recent Peoplenomics piece “The Grand Canals of Earth and Mars – where we talk about two proposals to save California from the drought, there are some solutions available, but they will be the largest geoengineering on the planet yet, and their impacts will likely far surpass even the Three Gorges Dam project in China.

There are two ways to look at the California Drought – and I’m not particularly partial to either one:

1.  The drought is the result of serious over-building of the area.  However, since California has a HUGE investment in infrastructure and massive – almost mind boggling public debt obligations to former public employees (such as retired California teachers) the only solution must of necessity be of an economic nature.

This argument is persuasive in that the debt is real and the war between former public employees and government which will change (as in being thrown out for reneging on retirement funding) is too horrific for politicians to contemplate.

This line of thinking is pretty interesting:  It lays out the logical framework that’s in play now:  Initially regulate and then follow up with punitive taxes in the form of those $10,000 per day fines for municipalities that don’t me the just-announced 25% water use reduction minimums.

Water doesn’t grow on trees and where is this $10,000 a day going to go?  Why to State Government, of course.  And what will they do with it?  Why, spend it, of course.

But that won’t make it rain – and that’s the Big Lie in  scenario.

2.  The Drought is a Natural Cycle that Stupid Humans are in denial about.  Just as there are (it is argued, though not by me) deniers on climate change, there are also deniers about the historical reality of California droughts.

I’ve pointed out that California was in a terrible drought through most of the 1850’s and that the drought out West persisted into the Civil War period, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg.

More important (and undeniable) is the science about much earlier drought conditions that persisted for terribly long periods and caused considerable hardship when there was almost no one living in the state.

Your mandatory reading this morning is of “Drought During California’s Mission Period, 1769-1834” that appears in the Journal of California and Great Basin Anthropology out of UC Merced.

.Notice, by the way, as a student of long wave economics, that the duration of this drought was approximately one economic long wave period, placed by Kodratiev (Kadratieff) at 48-64 years, although in fairness that was the cyclicity of grain prices in Europe in the Middle Ages, and it seems (very) likely that in addition to compound interest rates, cyclical climatology plays a much great role in cyclical economics that is generally recognized.  However, this is likely disguised in part due to the development of successive new technologies and their S-Curves of adoption after Marchetti, et al, which become harmonics.

A good thought model he is to consider a complex wave set on an ocean.  One could view the grand cyclicity of the climate as driving human  activity as being analogous to the tides that still rise and fall, even at sea.  Then under this tide, you may have a persisting long set of waves, such as the trades set up in the Caribbean.  Big, slow, and developed over a very long fetch (the distance winds travel while building up the waves) which could be a thousand miles, or longer.  These would be the rollers and we’ll call them analogous to technological change.

Then under this, one more layer here, we have a strong northerly wind, that has developed as a strong low pressure area moves across central Texas into the ArkLaTex – resulting in a stiff north winds heading offshore at some angle to the income rollers.  This wind might be analogous to the well-known Juglar or perhaps capital investment cycles.

The obvious development strategy for a regional area of known drought (as we know the Anasazi were driven from the region by drought, which ended the rein of the Pueblo People at places like Chaco Canyon, that the best thing to do would be to keep the area relatively under-developed and be developing its use with the limitations of the land in mind.

I would offer that the Drought is a persistent feature of life on all parts of Earth – and the climate promoters are relying almost entirely on the stupidity of people who don’t read history and can seem to figure out that “Hmm…if there is Drought in California, might it be mirrored in the Antarctic or Arctic, as well, and might that change the accumulation of ice which is the centerpiece of climate discussions?

It’s OBVIOUS, of course.  But, like shutting the door after the horse has left the barn, simply relocating half (or more) of California’s population to more reliable areas (like where we happened to select – in large part because of 40-inches of rainfall per year – duh!) is not going to be a happy process.

Charlatans are going to be coming out of the woodwork and yes, people whose retirement plans are based on California remaining solvent may wish to begin saving for more non-rainy days.

As the more recent Peoplenomics™ report on the Grand Canals of Earth and Mars pointed out, the most likely “solutions” to the problem would be resurrection of the Great Recycling and Northern Development Canal concept.

And since California now has tough mandatory water restrictions, and since Easter is this weekend, I figure it’s only appropriate that we conclude the week’s serious (public) thinking by forecasting the resurrection of the GRAND Canal concept which will leave to  massive ecological problems and a further screwing of Native Americans and First People.

But that’s another cycle, too….one we’ll save for another morning.

A Word About the Conspiracy Angle

From Wikipedia:

In the 1990s, Canadian conspiracy theorists believed the “GRAND Canal” was part of a conspiracy to end Canadian sovereignty and force it into a union with the USA and Mexico.[10] Conspiracy theorists believed that forces interested in a North American Union would agitate for Quebec separation, which would then touch off a Canadian civil war and plunge the Canadian economy into a depression. Impoverished Canadians would then look to the canal project and North American Union to revitalize the Canadian economy.[11] Much of the scenario was lifted from Lansing Lamont‘s 1994 book Breakup: The Coming End of Canada and the Stakes for America

As is often the case, the Conspiracy Theorists were pretty close to right.  Think NAFTA and water as a resource and you’ll see it.

But being early will get you called “crazy” and I would point to the John Birch Society’s work of the 1960’s warning us of socialism’s arrival in America, as being similarly spot-on, but labeled as crazy at the time by many because it was too early in the game for most people to see.

So just as a replay of the Mission Period Drought may be in play (and it’s OK to ask if the HAARP Project – the big atmospheric heater that was turned on had a hand in any of this), what are the two possibilities we can be noodling?

California weather refugees – a marvelous tax and spend tax regimen and along with it, a resurrection of plans for the GRAND Canal.

[Conspiracy test note:  If it rains in California and HAARP gets turned on, this would be prima facie evidence of a climate control conspiracy, lol.]

The only thing that remains would be to interview the people moving TO California and those who are moving FROM California.   Beyond the standard psychological tests (Stanford-Binet, or whatever), gee, wouldn’t it be interesting to measure relative awareness and intuition in order to compare the personalities and psychographics of people on the move.

Would that be a lesson, or do we already know the answer?

If you live in California, buy marshmallows:  The fire season this year could be horrific – worst in human history if my sense it right. 

And a kind of sitting-duck ultra terrorism problem.

Write when you break-even

George   george@ure.net

Comments

Coping: Prepping For Drought Refugees — 20 Comments

  1. I was in Las Vegas in the 80’s when water ran over the spill way at the Hoover dam. I went back about 6 months ago and it was pitiful. The water was down immensely. Maybe 100 feet or so. Lake Mead is a BIG lake think how much water is missing.

    I notice rexreseach was mentioned. Great site.

  2. Shortages around the world are mainly caused by overpopulation. Taking away water from agriculture would open a whole new can of worms.It would hurt California’s economy and possibly food shortages nationwide. I got a good lesson on water wars in Klamath Falls, Oregon 2000-2002. Too many people,not enough resources to go around. I hear that often. Too many,not enough. That says a lot.

  3. Yes, there is a lot of political noise within California about the drought. But no real meaningful action.

    Where are the plans for desalination plants? Oh, that money is allocated for Brown’s “Crazy Train”! Or was it the Delta destroying tunnels to move water to Southern Ca? Who are they going to take that water allocation from given the shortages?

    Where are the serious plans for more water storage since no significant storage has been built while CA’s population doubled. Can’t build a dam…but let’s allow another 20 million folks to join the party!

    80% of CA water is used in agriculture. How much of this is to be re-allocated for human consumption? Who decides who can’t plant crops next year?

    Where are the measurable, accountable, actionable plans to address the emerging crisis? When are we going to stop home building while we figure out how to deliver water to new homes? Shouldn’t we give a little thought to not encouraging more folks to move here while we sort out how to ration water next year?

    There is no leadership in CA – just a lot of rump covering, excuses and finger pointing. Exactly what you’d expect from CA politicians!

  4. I wonder how many Californians bother to collect the run off from their air cons that are thumping away for hours per day.

  5. I’ll go with the ‘conspiracy theory’ that would create the “North American Union” – we’ve disdained the Constitution of the Republic of the United States anyhow – – – otherwise – the State of Brown’s California would be figuring out and changing some of that Pacific water into fresh – and the U.S. federal government would be rerouting some of the flood water from the east to the west – where those vast food producing fields could use it – rather than fleeing homes that are six feet into the water. We can send oil by pipe from the top of Alaska to the bottom – but we can’t send life giving water across the same distance ????

  6. Amazing that you spewed so many words and were so off target.
    80% of water usage in California in by agriculture.

    Go research it and get back to us when you have something remotely true to say.

  7. Interesting there is no conversation about illegal immigration impacting the water shortage,considering amount of water a person uses daily. This would not stop a drought, but directly affects water supply issues. Californians migrate out,illegals migrate to California. Migrating across the desert to California only to find no water. Sad.

  8. No point in journeying north to Vancouver, BC or the areas north such as the Sechelt area, we have no snow pack this year. We are facing a water shortage due to a very warm winter and early spring.

  9. Some random thoughts on the weather in California:
    10 or 15 years ago I read that west coast sunlight was reduced 2% by al the smog and coal haze that has been drifting over from Chinese coal plants, and there was evidence during a really rainy winter that the predictable arrival of storms/snow in the Sierras to spoil weekend skiing was due to the commercial pulse of manufacturing in China — Their one day of reduced emissions created a rythme in storm formation as it moved across the Pacific. There are even MORE emissions now, ad possibly China is aware of it’s impact.
    Since they are buying up more and more western US property, if the create a dought, they buy a lot more very cheaply.
    Take a look at maps of how much of China will be underwater when all the ice in the world melts. Just about everything arable. If they indeed play the long game, they may be planning to move somewhere dryer?
    Just this week, though, a lot was made in the papers identifying 10 percent of the smog (which is a HUGE problem to breathers, particularly the little ones who have very high rates of asthma) in the San Joaquin Valley as coming from China. This was known long ago, but never publicized, no doubt because of the strategic plans U.S. corporations for friendly trade with China. Why is it brought up now, I wonder?
    And as for bottled water, bring it on. The stuff in the pipes is not dependable in many places in California now, and bottles are the best way to get it to people when the wells are dry! Although maybe they would be better off shipping it down from Canada — if they haven’t fracked or oil sanded it with pollution. They’re water may be more valuable eventually than oil — need keystone pipeline for water — when the drought is over, they can use if for oil.

  10. Cali is not serious about water conservation. If they were, ALL use of water for lawns, including golf courses, would be banned. The only necessary uses for water are up to 1000 gallons per person per month personal use(and that includes gardening), and certain food production and industrial/infrastructure necessities.

    Lawns in the desert are an abomination.

    My thoughts are to allocate 1000 gallons of water per person per month to use as they wish. Everyone can/should be able to legally capture whatever rain falls off their roof.

  11. If Californians could wake up and
    stop fracking in entire state, the
    water saved would be significant.

  12. California has an enormous investment in it’s infrastructure but a long term drought means the trees around the depleted reservoirs first die then burn. Throw in a big earthquake and there won’t be much left.

  13. As serious as this drought is, it still is not being taken too seriously by local governments and residents. Lawns are still green and parks are as lush as ever. It just hasn’t “soaked in” yet, because at least here in the Bay Area, there is the notion that in this region of constant innovation, a solution is more than likely looming around the corner. Maybe that is Elon Musk’s big announcement on April 30th that he recently tweeted about…who knows?

    As I have written about before, the drought we are in right now isn’t even one for the history books, but the population of this state and especially the Bay Area is. That’s the difference. Nearly 40 million people in the state and a record 8 million plus for the metro Bay Area is more than our region can handle with or without a good water supply.

    That is why I have been saying for years that the federal government should scrap the Keystone pipeline and concentrate on subsidizing a much more important project and construct a water pipeline that starts in Canada, but is also connected to tap into excess water in Washington and Oregon. This pipeline will not and should be a permanent water supply, for the main reason that droughts are not permanent either. The southwestern states and California would only use this water on an as needed basis.

    Another project is water capture. I was talking to an engineer the other day and he said that California as a whole, especially the far northern region, gets enough rainfall, however, we haven’t been very good at capturing that water before it flows to the Pacific. Part of this is the constant fight with environmentalists, water rights activists and the fishing industry in protecting trout, coho salmon etc. Creating a holding lake to capture re-routed water would be at least a few billion dollars as well.

    There are probably many outside of California that may wonder why California should get special federal fiscal attention. The answer is that we are the engine that ends this country right now. At a GDP of over $2.2 Trillion, California would tie for the 7th largest economy in the world right behind the UK at $2.5 trillion.

    And while bio tech, tech, entertainment and tourism get all the headlines, the biggest industry this state has to offer is agriculture. California leads the nation in the production of fruits and vegetables, including carrots, lettuce, onions, broccoli, tomatoes, strawberries, and almonds. The state’s most valuable crops are grapes, cotton, flowers, and oranges; dairy products, however, contribute the single largest share of farm income, and California is again the national leader in this sector. The state also produces the major share of U.S. domestic wine. Fishing is another important industry.

    And what does the ag and fishing industry need to survive? You guessed it. It’s not just our appetite we are feeding, but the entire nations…which is why our government priorities must shift to a more useful resource to pipe in…Water.

  14. Grand parents, parents and myself all grew up in SoCal and have always been aware of the draught/development/water rights grab. See Chinatown, 1974 movie.

  15. Howdy: love “ure” site, a friend of mine has some contacts in ca. and a little known fact about ca. is that the bottled water companies have contracts with ca. for unlimited water supplies-drought or no drought.from what i have been told the bottled water industry in ca. takes in enough water that would end the drought, and solve most of the problem. My friend just came back from a meeting out there with some other engineers.Evedintly they go through quite a few million gal. of water a day. sorry for the punctuation–i don’t do puntuation-lol

  16. Kinda interesting that the concept of property ownership, brought to the continent by immigrant/conquerors, may be the driving force that anchors and roots people to stay put, even in the face of floods, fires, famines and droughts. Why else stay when your environment becomes hostile to your existence?

    Trying to hang on to all your ‘stuff’ (antique cars, fancy furniture, McMansions, etc.) is another unique concept of recent reinvention. How many lives are lost by people refusing to part with their ‘stuff’?

    Man oh man but look at the stress just these two things exert on a heart and soul. Look at the stress that simply losing your green lawn causes to so many in Phoenix.

    Change comes – adapt or die-off. It has ever been so.