We first covered the coming California Drought/Panic (and potential Diaspora) back in January of 2014 for our Peoplenomics.com™ subscribers.
What I like to do with Peoplenomics™ (much more so than UrbanSurvival) is look into the future –toward where the data has been pointing – and project what that future will be like when it shows up.
So fifteen months ago, we were considering how the federal protections of frogs and such would lower reservoirs and how the rains had not come, nor would any be expected.
We know a couple of things about California – things modernists and Millennials try to paper-over with scare-tactics about Global Warming and – quick, hide under the bed! – climate change.
The fact of the matter is that climate always has been – and always will be – changing.
Al Gore and others currently reinventing climate as a business model tend to gloss over things like the floods in China 75-years ago – long before the effects of pernicious climate change.
To put a little hair on it, while the USA was going through the worst of the Dust Bowl from a lack of rain, as many as 3.7-million people died in China’s Great Flood of 1931. A factor not so deeply pondered in modern times is that populations density on the planet was much, much lower in the 1930’s…which means that a (population-inflation-adjusted) number could be in the vicinity of 6-10 million dead.
On the one hand, we can see that floods and droughts seem to be spread out over time and over large continental-sized areas. And, if we care to review the data, we will see that even in fairly close proximity, huge swings in climate always have been occurring at regular intervals.
2013 saw massive devastation in Afghanistan and Pakistan due to? Floods
Yet, right next door, temporally speaking, we had the drought of 1998-2002 in Pakistan and right now, the D-word is showing up in headlines again: “Ray of light in Pakistan’s drought-hit Thar desert.”
That BBC headline is perplexing. It leaves us staring into the coffee grounds this morning and wondering exactly what it is when a desert – already so-named because of a lack of rain – has what? A lack of rain. Most perplexing, indeed.
So let’s sit back and consider this California Drought problem a little more closely; without the climate hype and without the globalista’s minions who are trying to consolidate power, raise money, impose taxes, and thereby control lifestyles via whatever levers they can pull.
Don’t be fooled: There are lots of levers to be pulled: Racism, Terrorism, Global Warming….but it all comes back to what’s clearly explained in Report from Iron Mountain. This book – whose origins are still debated – explained back during the Vietnam era what the problem of government was: There needs to be a massive external enemy that presents such a threat, such an all-pervasive problem, that people will yield their freedom to government.
The book, by the way, points to only a few options, several of which are man-made disease, a massive global healthcare system, aliens from space (grown in Earth-based labs, of course) and a number of other problems.
Climate, I’m sure, would have been included in the book, but it wasn’t until the California Drought of the mid-1970’s that drought really surfaced as a government/citizen control point.
As I noted in my Peoplenomics report (again, this was 15-months ago):
Keep an eye on the major cities of California because a severe hit from the drought could be in the making there.
Back in 1973 I was offered a job at KFRC and there was a drought on at the time. The radio station was full of “If it’s yellow, let it mellow, if it’s brown, flush it down” pointers for the local people. Putting bricks in toilet tanks was promoted, too.
That 2013 was a record dry year is not enough to get people to thinking about relocation. But another year, a serous lack of water continuing, and that could all change.
But the big picture is already shifting. In a report this summer for the Hoover Institute at Stanford, Carson Bruno wrote that there was already a 2% net out migration in the 2004-2012 data:
“Looking at age, we see the red flag: individuals are coming to California in their early 20’s and not sticking around. We find that only college-age individuals see a net in-migration into California; all other groups witness a net out-migration, with the 40-to-54 age group — those in the prime of their professional careers — having the highest level of net out-migration. Despite college age individuals experiencing a net in-migration, the drop-off in the 25-to-39 age group suggests that these individuals are not staying within the state, likely due to the high cost of living in California and/or the lack of employment. “
How Climate Hype Works
To be sure, California has a water problem. No arguing the point. As I pointed out in the more recent Peoplenomics piece “The Grand Canals of Earth and Mars – where we talk about two proposals to save California from the drought, there are some solutions available, but they will be the largest geoengineering on the planet yet, and their impacts will likely far surpass even the Three Gorges Dam project in China.
There are two ways to look at the California Drought – and I’m not particularly partial to either one:
1. The drought is the result of serious over-building of the area. However, since California has a HUGE investment in infrastructure and massive – almost mind boggling public debt obligations to former public employees (such as retired California teachers) the only solution must of necessity be of an economic nature.
This argument is persuasive in that the debt is real and the war between former public employees and government which will change (as in being thrown out for reneging on retirement funding) is too horrific for politicians to contemplate.
This line of thinking is pretty interesting: It lays out the logical framework that’s in play now: Initially regulate and then follow up with punitive taxes in the form of those $10,000 per day fines for municipalities that don’t me the just-announced 25% water use reduction minimums.
Water doesn’t grow on trees and where is this $10,000 a day going to go? Why to State Government, of course. And what will they do with it? Why, spend it, of course.
But that won’t make it rain – and that’s the Big Lie in scenario.
2. The Drought is a Natural Cycle that Stupid Humans are in denial about. Just as there are (it is argued, though not by me) deniers on climate change, there are also deniers about the historical reality of California droughts.
I’ve pointed out that California was in a terrible drought through most of the 1850’s and that the drought out West persisted into the Civil War period, but that’s only the tip of the iceberg.
More important (and undeniable) is the science about much earlier drought conditions that persisted for terribly long periods and caused considerable hardship when there was almost no one living in the state.
Your mandatory reading this morning is of “Drought During California’s Mission Period, 1769-1834” that appears in the Journal of California and Great Basin Anthropology out of UC Merced.
.Notice, by the way, as a student of long wave economics, that the duration of this drought was approximately one economic long wave period, placed by Kodratiev (Kadratieff) at 48-64 years, although in fairness that was the cyclicity of grain prices in Europe in the Middle Ages, and it seems (very) likely that in addition to compound interest rates, cyclical climatology plays a much great role in cyclical economics that is generally recognized. However, this is likely disguised in part due to the development of successive new technologies and their S-Curves of adoption after Marchetti, et al, which become harmonics.
A good thought model he is to consider a complex wave set on an ocean. One could view the grand cyclicity of the climate as driving human activity as being analogous to the tides that still rise and fall, even at sea. Then under this tide, you may have a persisting long set of waves, such as the trades set up in the Caribbean. Big, slow, and developed over a very long fetch (the distance winds travel while building up the waves) which could be a thousand miles, or longer. These would be the rollers and we’ll call them analogous to technological change.
Then under this, one more layer here, we have a strong northerly wind, that has developed as a strong low pressure area moves across central Texas into the ArkLaTex – resulting in a stiff north winds heading offshore at some angle to the income rollers. This wind might be analogous to the well-known Juglar or perhaps capital investment cycles.
The obvious development strategy for a regional area of known drought (as we know the Anasazi were driven from the region by drought, which ended the rein of the Pueblo People at places like Chaco Canyon, that the best thing to do would be to keep the area relatively under-developed and be developing its use with the limitations of the land in mind.
I would offer that the Drought is a persistent feature of life on all parts of Earth – and the climate promoters are relying almost entirely on the stupidity of people who don’t read history and can seem to figure out that “Hmm…if there is Drought in California, might it be mirrored in the Antarctic or Arctic, as well, and might that change the accumulation of ice which is the centerpiece of climate discussions?”
It’s OBVIOUS, of course. But, like shutting the door after the horse has left the barn, simply relocating half (or more) of California’s population to more reliable areas (like where we happened to select – in large part because of 40-inches of rainfall per year – duh!) is not going to be a happy process.
Charlatans are going to be coming out of the woodwork and yes, people whose retirement plans are based on California remaining solvent may wish to begin saving for more non-rainy days.
As the more recent Peoplenomics™ report on the Grand Canals of Earth and Mars pointed out, the most likely “solutions” to the problem would be resurrection of the Great Recycling and Northern Development Canal concept.
And since California now has tough mandatory water restrictions, and since Easter is this weekend, I figure it’s only appropriate that we conclude the week’s serious (public) thinking by forecasting the resurrection of the GRAND Canal concept which will leave to massive ecological problems and a further screwing of Native Americans and First People.
But that’s another cycle, too….one we’ll save for another morning.
A Word About the Conspiracy Angle
In the 1990s, Canadian conspiracy theorists believed the “GRAND Canal” was part of a conspiracy to end Canadian sovereignty and force it into a union with the USA and Mexico. Conspiracy theorists believed that forces interested in a North American Union would agitate for Quebec separation, which would then touch off a Canadian civil war and plunge the Canadian economy into a depression. Impoverished Canadians would then look to the canal project and North American Union to revitalize the Canadian economy. Much of the scenario was lifted from Lansing Lamont‘s 1994 book Breakup: The Coming End of Canada and the Stakes for America
As is often the case, the Conspiracy Theorists were pretty close to right. Think NAFTA and water as a resource and you’ll see it.
But being early will get you called “crazy” and I would point to the John Birch Society’s work of the 1960’s warning us of socialism’s arrival in America, as being similarly spot-on, but labeled as crazy at the time by many because it was too early in the game for most people to see.
So just as a replay of the Mission Period Drought may be in play (and it’s OK to ask if the HAARP Project – the big atmospheric heater that was turned on had a hand in any of this), what are the two possibilities we can be noodling?
California weather refugees – a marvelous tax and spend tax regimen and along with it, a resurrection of plans for the GRAND Canal.
[Conspiracy test note: If it rains in California and HAARP gets turned on, this would be prima facie evidence of a climate control conspiracy, lol.]
The only thing that remains would be to interview the people moving TO California and those who are moving FROM California. Beyond the standard psychological tests (Stanford-Binet, or whatever), gee, wouldn’t it be interesting to measure relative awareness and intuition in order to compare the personalities and psychographics of people on the move.
Would that be a lesson, or do we already know the answer?
If you live in California, buy marshmallows: The fire season this year could be horrific – worst in human history if my sense it right.
And a kind of sitting-duck ultra terrorism problem.
Write when you break-even