Coping: Dragon Kings and Pending California Quakes?

I got up this morning at 3:11 AM and started working.  Brain on fire and unable to sleep.  It crossed my mind that this may be linked to a pending major earthquake.  But how, exactly, is not clear.

Allow to to explain (if this is your first visit) that I am very susceptible to extreme tiredness before major earthquakes.  Not all, but enough so that I note the events when they happen.  More frequent with 7.2 and above.

As I was wired and amped this morning I got to wondering about whether there is a “flip side” to the phenomena:  Might there be a period of extreme energy preceding the onset of the “Earthquake Tired” period? 

I guess we shall see.

But the low level quake swarms continue in California and against that background a discussion of the magnitude of statistical outliers (like mega quakes) in the normal power law distribution of noise is sure to come up.  And therein lies this extract which is totally fascinating:  (*by de Oliveira GF1, Di Lorenzo O1, de Silans TP1, Chevrollier M1, Oriá M1, Cavalcante HL2.)

For a long time, extreme events happening in complex systems, such as financial markets, earthquakes, and neurological networks, were thought to follow power-law size distributions. More recently, evidence suggests that in many systems the largest and rarest events differ from the other ones. They are dragon kings, outliers that make the distribution deviate from a power law in the tail. Understanding the processes of formation of extreme events and what circumstances lead to dragon kings or to a power-law distribution is an open question and it is a very important one to assess whether extreme events will occur too often in a specific system. In the particular system studied in this paper, we show that the rate of occurrence of dragon kings is controlled by the value of a parameter. The system under study here is composed of two nearly identical chaotic oscillators which fail to remain in a permanently synchronized state when coupled. We analyze the statistics of the desynchronization events in this specific example of two coupled chaotic electronic circuits and find that modifying a parameter associated to the local instability responsible for the loss of synchronization reduces the occurrence of dragon kings, while preserving the power-law distribution of small- to intermediate-size events with the same scaling exponent. Our results support the hypothesis that the dragon kings are caused by local instabilities in the phase space.

The grand pu-bah of this line of inquiry is Didier Sorenette who has applied some of the low-level signals drive magnitude of outliers  Sornette’s 2004 book doesn’t get into small parameter phasing as a control mechanism (or dragon king outliers) but his general application of geophysical math to markets is still a delightful read: Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems.  Especially given when we are in the economic cycle.

So yes, it seems that specific events drive 92004) and now we are seeing applications to specific parameters.  This is turn should lead to analogous parameters in economics (as opposed to electronics). 

One of these days, I will update my 1990’s work on the parallels between electronic theory and market dynamics…

Prepping: HF Ham Radio and Hurricanes


What does this picture tell you?

I mean other than George drives a Kenwood TS-590 on the 20-meter ham band?

It suggests you listen to 14.325 MHz for the Hurricane Watch Net. Upper sideband.

If it’s early (the net will move to 20 meters from 40 meters (7.268 MHz, lower sideband) when the higher band opens up.

More details from the Hurricane Watch Net website at website.

Sun Goes Missing

Talking ham radio always gets us to a discussion of the 11-year (approximately) solar cycle progression. The sun spot numbers are related to how radio propagates and with more sun spots, the MUF (maximum useable frequency) moves up. When the cycle is “high” things like 50 MHz DX (distance) communication is possible. Right now? Not so much. Low bands are fairly quiet, too.


What the just-updated (this week) progression from NOAA shows is that the sun is under-performing. That means several things: It may have something to do with the return of hurricanes that took some time off. Another is that it means Sun output is down, hence it will take more data tweaks that ever to convince the sheep that global warming is coming to get us all. Wasn’t New York supposed to be underwater, by now? And then there is the matter of global cooling which no one (Except Robert Felix of the Ice Age Now website, has written about.

And we are early for now this year as attested by the heavy snow warnings for Saskatchewan.

Musical Doctors

Elaine and I have been doing doctor visits this week.

Mine (Monday) was for eye surgery follow-up. Still legal to fly but the operative eye is back to 20/60’ish, but will bump up to 20/40 when a new contact comes in. The other eye is 20/30 minus 2.

A couple of things about eyes that you maybe didn’t know.

One is that my eyes have irregular corneas. The way to get around that is to wear a hard (gas permeable) lens. This (along with tears) makes a kind of artificial lens which takes out the irregularity of curviture which is my problem.

On the horizon, a new treatment involving the application of riboflavin to the cornea seems to get very good results. I know a young jet jockey with just such “dialing in” done on one of his eyes. See the discussion of corneal collagen cross-linking over here.

Elaine was off to the lady plumbing doctor Tuesday. That led to a referral for second opinion Wednesday. But thankfully, that was a false alarm.

It does get to an interesting discussion of how humans make clothing, since virtually all pants are sewn with four layers of cloth coming together at the top of the inseam. May be OK for male plumbing locations, but now (sheesh, too much info?) not for all ladies.

And there is a challenge for you to take up: Design a new/improved way of sewing pants. Big money in it, trust me.

Especially to those who are female and wear “spray-on” jeans.

One other thing to come out of this week’s doctoring (of interest to female readers) is that those handy wipes may not be good for the private parts so much as advertised. Curious point is that the FDA doesn’t have to approve toiletry goods but we do wonder about things like this. What is in those wipes and what it the long-term efficacy of external application to sensive (pink part) skin? Hmmm… marketing wins, health loses?

Oh, wait: Maybe keeping the public healthy and living for a very long time is not part of the agenda, you think? Check the Social Security black budget hole and get back to me with a reasonable answer.


Dopamine/Paranoia Link?

I didn’t know this, but there may be a link between dopamine levels and paranoia/schizophrenia. Paper dating back to 1992 may be found in PubMed here.

As long as we’re talking behavior and dopamine function, a recent paper worth your time might be “Alcohol misuse in emerging adulthood: Association of dopamine and serotonin receptor genes with impulsivity-related cognition.

One more for the pile: l-Theanine protects against excess dopamine-induced neurotoxicity in the presence of astrocytes.

I mention this because a) I seem to be fairly sensitive to L-theanine (active ingredient in green tea, experimentally used while dieting – a long discussion but generally it works, but raises resting heart rate) and b) some members of Ure’s family have lower dopamine levels, and c) dopamine is closely related to Alzheimer’s which we have a touch of in the family.

So what does this have to do with you??

1.If you have never looked into dopamine levels, you might find them an interesting vitamin “tuning” tool. I take L-Tyrosine (a precursor). And…

2.You may be interested in exploring some of the literature linking dopamine function to belief systems. Mostly subclinical, but there is some suggestion that dopamine chemistry might relate to how people believe the things that is and the things that isn’t.

THIS IS NOT MEDICAL ADVICE. Go pay someone for that.

Toothy Grin, Forensic Economics

As soon as this morning’s financial review is up, I’m off to the dentist. Filling fell out of a front tooth. I’ll take the Jimmy Durante gas cannula, thanks.

A review of our health expenditures so far this year suggests we are heading for a nearly equal distribution between the GP, Eye Surgeon, and Snaggletoother.

It’s not the kind of equality I was looking for in the world…but it is what it is, I ‘spose.

Tomorrow: Notes on a new Lucid Dreaming book.

And for Peoplenomics readers this weekend, something off the economics path. “Quest for the Light Crown: History and Redevelopment?”

Say cheese…and write when you get rich,


Coping: Dragon Kings and Pending California Quakes? — 22 Comments

  1. Speaking of fracking and earthquakes. I have a crazy idea. In the mid west they say fracking causes earthquakes. My guess is a bunch of little earthquakes beats a really big one any day. Why not try to frack a small section of the San Andreas fault away from big populations? If it seems to work and releases pressure next to the city areas then the rest of the fault. Yes I know no one will ever do it because any damage could be blamed on the government but it seems that it would work and cause much less damage than a huge all at ounce release.

  2. My hunch is that Northern Cali. goes off a 7.0 or near that and then southland hits.
    My intuition has been wrong before, of course. Just had to share.

  3. George- next time you visit the snaggletoother for a filling, you might consider discussing this new technology to see if the dentist is ‘up-to-date’
    bioglass fillings that help the tooth ‘heal’.

    also on the swarms prior to quakes- I’ve been keeping an eye on those too; watching earth/sky/space weather to see if any anomalies like cyclones, hurricanes, storms are swirling over a potential quake area. Seems there are correlations that can be predictors. Lots of data being collected on that topic.
    I thought I would be getting the ‘tireds’ as a result as my dreams are also precognitively correlating to the financial world garp, and the weather-quakes.However, I’ve noticed something new.
    I am getting ‘heat waves’ blasts of them with no reference/relative cause. Can’t be hormones, those days are long gone and my roommate is having them too- his correspond to mine even if in another room, can’t blame the heater (set at 68*). Therefore, the signs are too close to not be synchronous.Need to probably document this to check for patterns.

    So thanks for the reminders, I’ll now take some green tea thank you.

  4. Three points:
    1. jeans design – checkout Diamond Gusset jeans website. They make them for men and women.
    2. commercial wipes – just remember, anything that gets on the skin can go through the skin. And considering how many chemicals these products have, it has never seemed like a good idea to me.
    3. the link to the PubMed article is not working. I will try it again tomorrow.

    As usual some very thought provoking points to ponder – along with a lot of other things running around in my head. :):)

  5. mucuna pruriens has L dopa for dopamine; if you want to modify your brain temporarily. SAMe for serotonin.

  6. Along with news that global CO2 levels just crossed the 400ppm level are studies on indoor levels measured at 400 – 2000ppm higher. This is associated with significant deficits in human mental performance. Could explain a lot.

    • That’s an interesting point.
      But then again, there are enough of us who saw the deforestation in south America, Indonesia, etc that we understand that most of the CO2 has come from cutting down the trees that make our airsheds.
      In an intelligent world, we would not talk global warming, but would talk about environmental preservation and that is far beyond mundane economic scams like carbon credits.
      instead, we should be ensuring human rights to have and drink fresh water, for example.
      Instead, we see a very few and very rich buying up all the fresh water rich areas with the idea of future pop control through the very water we need to live.

  7. when I was in my youth (any years under 45), I was too busy living and doing life to think about how I would age. And now, over 60, those days are coming back for payback.

    When I was young, didn’t know that being very near-sighted increased my chances of so many eye problems down the road. After years of all scuba diving, flying, kickboxing, sports that involved falling hard (horseback riding, skiing, etc) and doing alot, repeat alot of heavy manual labor, my eyes are the first to have symptoms of aging.

    Am writing now as I recover from yet another eye surgery. Several years ago the vitreous gel tore in both eyes (payback time), then needed cataract surgery for both, and just yesterday had surgery for vitrectomy/membrane peel/removal secondary cataract. Recovery from this is NOT fun – face down 24/7 for about 10 days. Other eye will probably be needing it sooner than later. Am told if I would have been just ‘a little more less strenuous’ when I was younger, I might have either prevented or at least had this later in life.

    With longevity in family, am looking at going for at least another 20-30 years…but will most certainly have to rethink activities that could now lead to permanent loss of vision (I believe that eliminates alot of the work that goes with living on the land/farm along with alot of the more ‘exciting’ sports)

    Hindsight wish I had known all this when I was less aged.But when we are 20, 30 and even 40 – the horizon still looks so far away.

  8. Hey from Saskatchewan. Got some real nasty snow that came up from the US (Yes, it heads to us from you guys LOL)
    Its wet and mucky and about 6 inches and it just keeps coming. But next week its supposed to be back in the 70’s again. Fun storm!

  9. Yeah, the Globalists really care about a healthy population.
    “Today, it is infinitely easier to to kill a million people than to control a million people.”- Zbigniew Brzezinski, former policy advisor to Obama, CFR and Trilateral Commission founder.

  10. You are on to something with the dopamine connection. In my case, it is a serotonin deficiency problem. Met my birth mother and she is mentally ill in some way, so I may have inherited a less than optimal brain chemistry. In my case, St John’s Wort and 5-HTP are wonder workers.

    Alas, none of us is perfect and the trick is learning as young as possible how to tweak and work with what you got to maximize your shot at a good life.

    • Sherlyn — glad you found St John’s Wort and 5-HTP — wonder workers indeed. Also keep in mind you have her mitochondria. Some mental illness can relate to underperforming mito. Also B12 and ‘methylation’ issues. Research the term ‘ MTHFR’ for more info. My mother, although never diagnosed professionally, was probably ‘borderline personality’ — not quite schizophrenic, and not quite manic-depressive — a little of both, without the voices and hallucinations of schizophrenia. Hacking my biochemistry has been a lifelong project. Emotional detoxing from years of toxic parenting just as challenging. The lifelong benefit — early trauma like that begets psychic ability as a survival skill.

      • There is a benefit to being on that personality disorder border: Specifically such people are incredibly creative and can literally drip energy so it ain’t all bad.

  11. Good morning George what what would a time-traveling person do to change the water level in New York City

    • about the rising water I guess time travel could have and influence if people knew about the future but that’s just say all the plates on the surface are adjustable and if by some means we put pressure weather electrical or physical on a specific place we can alter the regions to go higher or lower even when there is an incline in the structure

  12. We could have been subjected to “Global Cooling” hysteria except for the fact that it is a bit harder to monetize. To cast a wider net though, (in case something to monetize comes up), it now masquerades under the guise of “climate change”.

  13. “Oh, wait: Maybe keeping the public healthy and living for a very long time is not part of the agenda, you think? Check the Social Security black budget hole and get back to me with a reasonable answer.”

    (Yes!) a reasonable answer is ‘just plain common sense,’ however, medicine is Big Business and therefore it is what it is and will be. Next one!

  14. That swarm of earthquakes down in California is worrisome for sure, though I’m wondering whether you are feeling the result of the pending effects of Hurricane Matthew?

    Doesn’t heavy rain like that from the storm cause some earthquakes – sort of a ‘reverse fracking’?

    Throw in the very quiet Sun, and I wonder if the east coast might be due for some trembling . . .

    • That’s a pretty reasonable question. I seem to recall a study a few years back that there was an offset of 18-months from extreme e rains in socal and following quakes.

      • I suspect the earthquake swarm in the Salton Sea is linked to the Colima volcano eruption in Mexico. Geologist will poo-poo of course, but then again they’re just catching up to the idea of linked quakes spanning the Pacific Rim of Fire. I’d be watching for a 6+ quake on the Laguna Salada fault (or points south), or, as I like to call it, the Southern Andreas. It might manifest as far south as Mexico City.

        My own opinion is that the 7.2 quake of 2010 in Mexicali released enough stress from the Southern California Andreas so as to make a major quake improbable at the moment. If I’m right, be keeping an eye on mid-California to points north. If I’m wrong, eh, I still have my preps. Would be foolish not to.

        George, please keep us apprised of any unexpected napping activities.