While tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report will deal with the rise and fall aspects of borders – which gets into the whole notion of “property” and all, thence to economics – this morning we should revisit a number of key points because the issue promises to be around for a long time.
First, a word from a troll. Trolls, in case you haven’t figured it yet, are the creatures that live under the internet, write mostly snide (or “me-too”) remarks and contribute little to the discussion in terms of facts. Most often, their stock-in-trade is the personal attack.
“hello mister georgie porgie,
been reading your blog for a few years now.
maybe, just maybe, you might want to relax a bit, because you and your texan and murKKKKin neighbors do not have a clue about what is going on outside of dfw and usa.
but keep writing and cruising. it’s nice to see and hear how the .00001 perceive their dream reality.
I’m quite relaxed, thanks (125/70), I am not a Texan in the pejorative sense, and the state is actually not a murKKKin place as alleged. What’s more, our network of sources is wider and higher ranking than you’d think. And in term of living in a “dream reality”? Thanks, but no thanks.
When comes to politics, our thinking is mostly a cross between three labels:
1960’sd Time Magazine Republican (strongly pro civil and other Rights yet at the same time very strongly pro small government and balanced budgets.
Henry M. Scoop Jackson democrat, which is about the same thing, with a bit more weighting toward the working class. He was predicting a showdown in Hormuz during many interviews is 1970-73. A man ahead of his time.
And finally, we are very much pro-process and anti-violence. Which doesn’t mean we are unarmed. Quite the contrary. We get more than our share of ORM-D packages to “feed the range.” But, like morphine in the end stage, violence is an absolute last resort and violence of any kind is eschewed.
These cornerstones aside, we do use a calculator to approach many policy issues such as the European (and Mexican/S.A.) illegal border crossing.
Let’s revisit that, shall we?
I have never found reason to disagree with you. However, once in a while I might see an administrative error. This is one of those emails.
Monday you presented the calculator method of determining immigrant percentages compared to populations. The premise and calculations are correct, and I agree with it. But the numbers were wrong for Europe. I use this recent article as an indicator of ‘numbers’: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911
“Asylum applications in Europe have surged this year – with numbers for Germany and Hungary already exceeding their totals for 2014. Altogether, 438,000 refugees had applied for asylum by the end of July – compared with 571,000 for the whole of last year.
According to figures from the UNHCR, Germany continues to be the most popular destination for migrants arriving in Europe. It has received the highest number of asylum applications, with more than 188,000 by the end of July 2015 – 15,416 more than in the whole of 2014.”
It looks like you’ve picked up the Germany numbers for all of Eurozone.
Thanks for all you do,
Some EXCELLENT points!
Let’s see where the numbers take us, shall we?
First, however, realize that reporting on issues like immigration to Europe are emotionally hot. And therefore we must be extraordinarily precise in our thinking.
Let’s take the number of refugee “applications” as an example. This is definitely NOT the physical number of persons.
Let’s say that this (more thoughtful) reader and I were two arriving immigrants. We looking at the European Union and decide it is a better place to live than a bombed out hovel in Syria. So we take a boat to Greece or simply hoof-it through Turkey.
Arriving in Europe, we begin making application for asylum. My first application goes to The Netherlands because of the red light district and the “coffee shops”. My more moderate companion applies for asylum in France because he has good taste in pastries and the art at the Louvre.
We then consider our positions. The Netherlands may reject my application, so I clone my brother-reader’s application to France. After thinking through red lights and “coffee houses” my companion applies to the Netherlands.
As two war-weary travelers, we have done what? Two “immigrants” have generated four applications.
Except we don’t stop there. I like Italian food, so we apply there. Swiss chocolates aren’t so bad, so we apply there. And since some from Austrian can become governor of California, we apply there. And then, in quick succession, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Spain, until eventually we apply and have made application to each of the 28-European Union members.
Which is not to say this IS the case. BUT when journalists report applications we need to be very specific in our wondering whether this is a count of pieces of paper or whether it is a count of total bodies.
The two numbers may be hugely varied.
Then we have to look at the physical locations of persons part of the equation because oftentimes, in a single news story, you will find conflicting data.
Take this story from BigThink as an example. Here are two “problem-scaling” numbers pulled from the same article:
1. “On Monday, the EU called an emergency session to deal with the onslaught of refugees attempting to enter Europe. Their temporary solution to relocate the 40,000 migrants from Italy and Greece is a first step to sharing the responsibility of this escalating humanitarian crisis. “
2. “Many European leaders are scrambling to find any solution besides accepting displaced people, but with 4 million refugees and growing, the problem is beyond containing it to Syria and the region. “
Adding insult to injury, this article penned by a New York-based writer then goes on to opine that America needs to be less isolationist than in the past; a point I strongly disagree with. And that’s purely a matter of opinion, a label which is disappearing quickly with internet New Journos. Embracing invading hordes is not a ‘self-evident’ need, particularly when the data is not clear.
We can compare the numbers used in the Monday column with this data for Italy and Greece and the quoted “40,000 migrants” but even here we have questions as to the source of the data which is not cited. Is this strictly Syrian fallout, or are there others (former Libyans, or whoever) included in this “migrants” count?
Even so, we can rerun the numbers: The population of Italy is what? 59.83 million. And the population of Greece is 11.03 million. Total: 70.86 million.
If we use the “40,000 migrants” number, we quickly see the result is 0.00056449336 and sliding over the decimal point two places to the right gives us 0.056449336% – 5/100th’s of one percent which is not too far off from our Monday column of 2-100th’s of one percent.
However, let’s see how this works out if each of the people involved (the 40,000) each applies to all 28 of the European Union countries plus a few others, like the United States, where the Obamanizer is inviting 10,000: 1.12 million applications. That doesn’t include U.S. applications.
KEY THINKING POINT: Applications are not People. The ratio may be as high as 30 applications per person. That would be all the EU country applications plus the US and Canada which will be sucked into this head trip.
Suddenly, we have a much more “saleable” story. We can cite “more than a million refugee applications” which is a catchy headline, indeed. And that’s not including US applications…we don’t need to make up numbers. Using the same population, we can now write (with a somewhat straight face) that “more than a million applications are likely in Europe.”
There are two additional points that must be emphasized here.
The first is that in most of the pictures that are “wide shots” you will see something is missing: Woman and Children.
This is concerning on two levels. First is that most of the incoming are young military-aged men. Secondly, it means that officialdumb (sic) in both the EU and USA know that since most of the men coming in will come in, get a “ticket to ride” and then follow on by importing the rest of their families, that this is indeed a serious problem.
A cold beer bet on the side says the 10,000 the US is talking about allowing will then bring in at least another 30,000 of “relatives such as wives and children “ and so on.
The second thing is that since these are young military-aged men, there will no doubt be huge numbers of jihadists in the mix.
In the case of the (weak-minded socialists who are) French, they insisted that the 2005 riots were not “racial”
Yet the Wikipedia report on events was pretty even-handed:
The unrest started on 27 October at Clichy-sous-Bois, where police were investigating a reported break-in at a building site, and a group of local youths scattered in order to avoid interrogation. Three of them hid in a power-station where two died from electrocution, resulting in a power blackout. (It was not established whether police had suspected these individuals or a different group, wanted on separate charges.) The incident ignited rising tensions about youth unemployment and police harassment in the poorer housing estates, and there followed three weeks of rioting throughout France. A state of emergency was declared on 8 November, later extended for three weeks, and the government announced a crackdown on immigration and fraudulent marriages.
Those of high mental acuity can see that behavior belies the Truth and the crackdown on immigration and fraud marriages speaks volumes.
Not to pick on the (weak minded socialist) French, but they also seem to have forgotten the 2013 Trappes riots:
On 20 July 20 cars were burned in Trappes.
Just as the bleeding heart types in America don’t want to believe that illegal immigration from Mexico accounts for a huge portion of the US Gang Problem, we need to also be clear that immigration like this is an economic tool wielded by The PowersThatBe.
Without illegal immigration, the drugs, the violence, and mayhem that follows, people in the United States would not be troubled by imported violence from the likes of MS-13 and that whatever it is Street gang.
Absent those,. and professional agitators to stir up American violence, we would have little cost-justification for massive surveillance, huge spending on things like M-RAPs for local police departments, new riot gear, and all the rest of it.
Time out! Without that spending the folly of our economy would be exposed. Our economy would fail instantly without multiple wars and massive crime!
Let’s be honest here: If people just minded their own business and got on with building a happy future where people could focus on developing their highest talents, the corporate greedster world would fail in a heartbeat.
I’ve said for years that crime is symbiotic:
“In biology, symbiotic refers to any diverse organisms that live together, but in this case, the relationship is not necessarily beneficial to both. Parasites, for example, have a symbiotic relationship with their hosts, but only the parasite benefits.”
Unlike biology, however, the Hosts (*the PowersThatBe) actually benefit as well.
The Immigration “crisis” of Europe will give the European Union more powers and with it, more control. It’sd a way to “roll-back” the “open borders” that were such a cornerstone of the European Union sales bullshit. Having grasped power, the EU can now toss out its foundations into the regional dictatorship with its own flavor of phony money to compete with other scam blocks. People will cheer the fraud on…as they are being conditioned to do, even now. We go back to the Europe of the 1950’s but a new layer of Bureaucracy is in place.
Is this the ultimate Three-Card Monty, or what?
Immigration nonsense gives opportunity for bleeding heart media to continue to “sell” crooked information because most people don’t take the time to look through the data and assess the larger game. In the case of immigration it is (in part) to ensure the people in power remain solidly in control since people will “demand order” as Hitler described so well in his less read second book.
Until now, I have focused this morning’s remarks on Europe. The same errant thinking can be found when we look at the Mexico and S.A, illegal problem in the USA. A reader sent this:
“Germany was, as of about 5 days ago, supposed to be taking 800,000 refugees this year; use that number. Also, use 50 million illegals as that will include the ‘anchor babies’ which anchor them just fine to our dime…I mean DOLLARS. They have had 20 years to get to 50 million and my guess, the number is HIGHER!”
As always, this is a “divide and conquer” exercise that will ensure the genuine global problems are orchestrated by the Few at the expense of the Many. And the beat goes on.
Yet away from the discussion is the deeper question of Order and how much Disorder a Complex System can endure before radical change arrives. Today is it NGOs and Foundations that move society…away from control by governments. They form thought which is then channeled as the Commanding the Heights people wish.
A number of readers have challenged my thinking on the Kentucky Clerk on similar grounds, saying a court order is not enough.
Yet I maintain it is. If a decision is deemed bad, then appeal. But we have order and the attacks are on that and the goal is to make extra-legal (outside the system) the new norm.
To hold otherwise is to commend working outside the system and from there we are into moral quicksand.
We may not like the Law as presently interpreted, yet it is within the Power of the People to vote in Outsiders, as is likely in our presidential election in 2016. With Hillary on the ropes over email server and classified information abuse, the odds of an Outsider (Trump and Carson) has risen dramatically.
The Washington-based system of corruption, namely lobbyists passing out votes instead of money, has passed its prime. To borrow a Trumpism, the Silent Majority is back.
Or is it?
Liberals have had their run, ever since JFK was assassinated for reasons the government has still not come clean on. The Corporate Takeover, however, has been an abject failure to deliver with poverty as bad now as it was at the beginning of the Great Society.
But the Big Lies about Progress continue.
The JFK assassination was a turning point. Back then, a new car cost, on average, $3,500. And according to this website, a lot of other things were different in 1964:
Year End Close Dow Jones Industrial Average 874 Average Cost of new house $13,050.00 Average Income per year $6,000.00 Gas per Gallon 30 cents Average Cost of a new car $3,500.00 Loaf of bread 21 cents United States Postage Stamp 5 cents Average Monthly Rent $115.00 Ticket to the movies $1.25.
Yes I used 1964, not 1963 data.
The problem is always economic in nature: How much are people given in return for their hard work, belief, and lawful participation?
Government, by ceding its lawful control over money to the (not really) Federal Reserve, has quietly stolen all our gains by through inflation.
What cost $100 in 1963 now costs $772.45. Even those figures, too, are suspect. I figure the Truth is closer to 10-12 times, not eight.
When you do that, the Big Lie is that in half a century, there’s been very little – if any – prosperity progress.
Richard Heinberg brilliantly and presciently describes where we are in his book Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines. I know…you’re too busy to read a whole book. It’s useful, though not popular in flash-in-the-pan culture.
The utility value of a home, a car, a steak dinner hasn’t changed. We still work more than 40-hours a week (especially if you have any commute at all) and yet our money is buying only one-eighth as much.
We fail to apply calculations on a regular basis at our peril.
Crooked leaders, crooked money, and unbalanced budgets reap a bitterly small harvest for working people.
But to keep us all in line, immigration – invasion from poor countries or theft of manufacturing – are the new tools of choice. Those immigrants will steal our jobs, create crime, and thus jobs. Those are the steps in the slow-motion death dance of America and Europe.
Eventually, resources depleted, pseudo-leaders will go to war and we will all be toast. In the meantime, I urge my friends and children to live apart, run the numbers and stay out of the line of fire to the greatest degree possible.
Over time, the positions will harden. Freedom will be less free, the demand for more Order will be played like a fiddle, and the lot of humans will decline.
The Great Society will have blown up bankrupt, the entitlements gone, masses indentured with student loan debt and all the rest, will be easily manipulated to elect the next “entitled Aristocrat” and there we will be:
This is the high tech version Feudalism, manipulated with people and money yet without precision of thinking which makes it all so easy to pull off.
Without a war in Syria, without funding ISIS and AQ affiliates, we would have to immigration crisis in Europe and without that, no need for greater Order and no acceptance of additional Government Control.
Tomorrow we’ll talk about something more practical in Peoplenomics – where to make your stand and what it could look like.
For now, enjoy the day. But it comes with what my friend Gaye calls the “terrible burden of knowing”.
And worse? What the hell do we do about it but prep and remain apart?
Write when you break-even,