Once again, the Great American Hype Machine is set to roll with a “Horrible Winter Snow Blast” like it is supposed to mean something. I haven’t bothered to look for it, but I’m sure someone will give it a name. All part of the branding process.
Yes kiddies, it will snow tomorrow – up to a couple of feet in the Northeast, but this is how the Universe teaches the gullible about subjects like climate change.
All that remains is for the email machinery to start cranking out their fear porn to raise money for…well, whatever.
Still, a look at the calendar tells us all we need to know: There are still eight days of Winter left.
The Monday Tee Shot (Economic Golf)
The main thing to do this morning is to recover from the God-awful time change this weekend. There is so little going on this morning that no one could possibly blame you for returning to the rack for at least part of your stolen day. ‘Cept the boss, maybe.
Tomorrow? Different deal. Warm-up day.
We will get the Producer Price Index for final demand, but the real action this week is Suyper4 Wednesday.
First thing will be the bank reserve settlement (if you like accounting) followed by the Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, and then in the afternoon the Fed Rate decision.
Sure looks about 90% likely the Fed will raise rates – which means if we are really replaying the 1929 period, this will be about like the rate hike of
April 23, 1928. A flat to down week is possible, but by the week after next, our long position should be in full bloom.
In a perfectly conspiratorial world, the last rate hike as the bubble grows would come 87 days later than Wednesday – which we could round off to expecting Hike #3 in June..
Thursday’s Housing Starts should be interesting and an upside surprise would be nice. If it comes, that would be smart people, seeing that the bottom of interest rates is here – and wanting to lock in a new home at never-before-seen rates.
If you’re a Millennial, you may not realize this, but when us old Grays were your age, a 7 3/4th’s percent home loan was considered a steal by 1975, or so.
Not saying it’s a bad idea to buy a home – seldom is except when you’re right on the cusp of a Greater Depression an d even then, no one sends out a memo. Becomes a judgment call.
After all the excitement (or data excretions if you think of it that way) of the Super Wednesday, Friday will fall back to nappy-time and we can all get back to working our butts off to make ends meet’ never getting ahead, mostly.
What Conway Didn’t Say
Oh boy. Democrats may be about to get their comeuppance.
Kelly Conway was on the talking-heads circuit this weekend saying the government has many ways to surveil people.
What most Americans want to believe is the government is just government.
Well no, Not true: Multiple government agencies are working to create a super-database which would allow an interested federal (whatever) to pull up everything about you on a single screen.
Oh, sure, NCIC (national crime information center) would have all your traffic stops, speeding tickets, warrants for unpaid tickets and the like. But then beyond that picture having your tax filing tied into that along with your Facebook posts and a network diagram of who are your friends are. Toss in your Social Security, bank account balances, and oh yeah we’re talking about Admiral Poindexter’s Total Information Awareness Project which just sort of faded into the woodwork.
Thing is: It’s mostly there. Social mapping, especially.
What would you expect from an East German Stasi lake surveillance system designed by a fellow who was convicted of five counts of lying to Congress, only to have it overturned on appeal?
Do you really think people in the Intel community are going to tell the truth when asked “Are you illegally watching Americans?” Hell no. They will lie with impunity.
That’s what they have all the fancy lawyers for – to tell them which weasel words to use. I love Clapper’s use of “to my knowledge” for example when asked a specific question.
To be sure, if Congress really does its job, they would use the hearings starting today to bust open the progress along the lines to Total Information Awareness which schematically looks something like this:
If you just glance at it, all looks straight-forward enough.
But read the zhit under “transactional data” – your vet bills for f’s sake?
But few know, for example, that there are “cloaked modes” where a few “special people” have access to everything in the system? I know this is true of NCIC and logically assume the cloaking mode is available across platforms. Which is where this gets to be dangerous stuff. Who is watching the watchers?
Cloaking is used to control access to juvi records and to keep those in law enforcement who are suspect from learning of surveillance, but this cloaking stuff is a HUGE policy issue.
The biggest threat to American Freedom is SQL databases, in many ways.
Lying Two-Face Democrats
You know, this whole episode started with the Obama/Clinton attempts to subvert the new President with innuendo about “meetings with Russians.”
But now? Here comes a report out of the UK (and you’ll love this): “Hillary Clinton’s team met with Russian ambassador, says Kremlin spokesman, as he warns against ‘hysteria’ .”
I can hear ‘em squealing now “But that’s different…” Yeah, uh-huh…
Hysteria? Here in clear-thinking ‘Merica? Land of the border-free? LOL it is such fine Kabuki – and no flight to Tokyo required. Just turn on See-Spawn (sic) today.
Collapse of Europe Pending (Slow Motion)
We’ve been massively entertained by this for some time: How the U.K. is dragging its feet on BREXIT – and how Marine Le Pen could toss the Euro and resuscitate the Franc if she wins May 7 in France.
Now we read how on “Scottish independence: Nicola Sturgeon to seek second referendum.”
What we’re really watching in the slow-motion collapse of Globalism.
Bigger Picture, Wider Thoughts
In his book End of the Line: The Rise and Coming Fall of the Global Corporation, Barry Lynn summed it up perfectly:
“The era of national industrialisms honed honed to win power and glory is over.”
It’s a complicated plot line, but it involves the problem of consumer super-saturation, the limits to valuations (which already verge on absurd) and then we have all those disruptive technologies coming along. Toss in a helping, or two, of resurgent nationalism? Why not?
Yes sir, a fine fish-fry is ahead. Especially in light of our recent Peoplenomics discussion noting the global Purchasing Power High was actually Y2K on an inflation-adjusted basis when a boarder than U.S. market perspective is applied.
Now, this is not as sexy and fast-moving like either the hands of clocks this weekend of Winter Storm Stella, but it IS the kind of change that matters and will shape the world we live in.
The U.S. – and to a large extent China and Russia – have a problem in that we have gotten into a terrible habit of using Cold Wars to keep the economic scales balanced because there is no alternative to growth.
Since we’re addicted to growth, we need to find new and creative ways to “make up jobs” – and just so you know, that’s one of the major obstacles to getting rid of Obamacare: Even the dullest-witted republicans know that we can’t really shrink government nor its child-industries: They are all that stand between us an Oblivion.
Yet here it comes: Rates are beginning to tick up. Box prices will fall as rates rise – from Future Values declining when reduced to Present Values. The great stampede into stocks will continue.
Until, that is, it can continue no more. Then it will be Collapse.
Unfortunately, we see the ugly outline of the republicans being left holding the bag on this one. The Obama shadow government and the Hillary loyalists still embedded will do all they can to foment opposition to Donald Trump.
You can see how it’s working, too. With people like John McCain who is bashing Trump saying he should retract his wiretapping claims. Glad McCain didn’t become President.
Yet this is how we all become victims of process. Too small to stop the train wreck, all we can do is watch the “majority party” disintegrate while the democrats keep selling free lunches on the one hand and offer aid and comfort to Trump opposition on the other.
We see the NE liberal press throwing stones, as well. “Trump Lets Key Offices Gather Dust Amid ‘Slowest Transition in Decades’” moans the NY Times.
If we could – as a country – work on our real core problem – it would be refreshing.
That problem is to design an economy that will weather both rapid growth as well as moderate declines – without relying on intimidation of the people (as in brow-beating to pay more taxes like this climate scam which aims for a global climate tax and thence world government) or restarting the Arms Race which increases the potential for global genocide.
Trump wiretaps seem destined to be “talked around” but not addressed head-on.
That’s because the term “head-on” also applies to vehicular accidents. And that’s what the f/u’ed GOP looks like from out here in fly-over country.
Say “Hi!” to Global Warming for us and drop by tomorrow.
(Feels like a Bailey’s & nutmeg French Toast morning to me.)