Climate Change? Maybe….

We will get to the futures (yawn) and the Chicago Fed activity index (snore) in a moment.

But first a word about climate change.

No, we won’t get talking about India and China getting serious about longer-term government commitment to the idea, although the NY Times over here is solidly supportive in their reporting.

(Continues)

No, what we’re talking about is cycles of the Sun which, in our view is getting the short shrift.

As the Pacific Oscillation continues, though, we are already noticing that the summer, at least here in East Texas,, is arriving a month later than usual.

Not only do we have 3+ inches in the rain gauge in the past week, but if the weather forecasts hold, we will make it out of May without it even hitting 90F here at the ranch.

Rain at these rates – and the tornados they have spawned and sent off to the northeast of us – are more commonly seen in Late March to early May.

Moreover, in places hard-hit this weekend by unseasonable weather, like Alabama, there is some debate as to just what it was.  See “Straight-line winds vs a tornado: What caused Saturday’s storm damage?”

Further north, damage from the Wisconsin tornado of last week will be somewhere over $10-million, according to reports like this one.  None of which would be particularly troubling, were it not for the fact that Wisconsin is outside of the traditional boundaries of Tornado Alley.

61F at press time around here today and last night, both Elaine and II had jackets on for the afternoon libation on the screen porch.  Unheard of this late in the year.

All of which has WHAT to do with long wave economics, exactly?

Well, hold Ure horses…just getting to that:

When rainfall is good and the growing season shapes up as nearly ideal, lots of things good happen in the farm belt.  We will have to see how the rest of the summer goes, when it shows up.

Basically, we expect based on this kind of rain that beef supplies will be ample to good – since grass is growing so fast ranches around here are looking like golf courses (more in Coping today).  That lessens price-driven inflation a bit on the food side, but rest assured:  The greed part of corporatism will make up for any dispensations from Ma Nature.

It does give us some reason to hope for a big crop from the farm belt this year as those are always good for the balance of trade, and that – in turn – is good for the federal budget deficit.

In the meantime, with Trump out of the country, there’s little else going on today except maybe the…

Chicago Fed National Activity Report

Hot off the ChiFed press release:

“Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.49 in April from +0.07 in March. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from March, and only one category made a negative contribution to the index in April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.23 in April from a neutral reading in March.”

Need the photo op?

The futures with 45-minutes to the opening were up 25 on the Dow.  Try not to spend in all in one place.

Crude Lefty Politics

No, there was NONE OF THIS CRAP when Obama was in the White House.  But now that he’s across town, oh look surprised as how the coordinated left is bringing down the level of discourse in politics:

Notre Dame students walk out on Mike Pence during commencement speech.

John Podesta Unloads on Trump.

And “Nancy Pelosi laughs as California Democrats chant ‘F*ck Donald Trump!’ raising 2 middle fingers…”

It’s all the lefties and their soft co9up wet dream.  But let’s get real, shall we?

Why We Need the Computational Party

We hate to remain aloof from the sSMS-tard level of politics, but both of the corrupt parties including the majority in the House and Senate who are functional Democrats, but labeled as Republicans (in seeming violation of Truth in Advertising statues) have had….oh…..150 years to fix racial discrimination, poverty, start to tax machines that displace human work (and hence income tax revenues), cap interest rates at 12% and no higher, plus come up with a workable single-payer national health insurance plan that out the greedsters  of their 25% vig on the misery of the people.

None of this in sight yet?  Why?  Because some greedy sonofabitches are making a killing on We the Peeps, that’s why.

BOTH political parties need to be replaced and as this becomes clear to more and more people, the Computational Party will likely make an appearance.

The idea here is very simple:  With even basic to intermedia spreadsheet skills, a person can figure out whether most legislation will help the AVERAGE people or whether it’s another cut-out for the Rich F’s who buy the two corrupt parties in power.

The closer we get to the Second Depression rolling out, the more the Computational Party WILL make sense.

It isn’t like there isn’t historical precedence, either.  You need to read a bit on the Technocracy Movement from Wikipedia.  Here – too early to have to click your Mouse, being Monday and all…

“The technocracy movement is a social movement which arose in the early 20th century. Technocracy was popular in the United States and Canada for a brief period in the early 1930s, before it was overshadowed by other proposals for dealing with the crisis of the Great Depression.[1] The technocrats proposed replacing politicians and businesspeople with scientists and engineers who had the technical expertise to manage the economy.[2]

The movement was committed to abstaining from all revolutionary and political activities. The movement gained strength in 1930s but in 1940, due to an alleged initial opposition to the Second World War, was banned in Canada. The ban was lifted in 1943 when it was apparent that ‘Technocracy Inc. was committed to the war effort, proposing a program of total conscription.’[3] The movement continued to expand during the remainder of the war and new sections were formed in Ontario and the Maritime Provinces.[4]

In the post-war years, perhaps due to continued prosperity, membership and interest in Technocracy decreased. Though now relatively insignificant, the Technocracy movement survives into the present day,[5] and as of 2013[update], was continuing to publish a newsletter, maintain a website, and hold member meetings.[6]

Now, in practical terms, Technocracy has two strikes going against it.  Strike 1 was the attempt at becoming a mass movement in the 1930’s.

Strike 2 was when the “government of experts” was attempted in the former Soviet Union.

But what they did have – and this is really key – is they had plans to get rid of the broken and replace it with something new that might work.

Why not simply restart Technocracy?  Not that you couldn’t, mind you.  But in order  to appeal to the SMS types and in order for this to not become an “owned idea” – which might have been one of the early Technocracy issues (Creative Commons weren’t around in the 1920’s and 1920’s) it would need a new “hook.”

That hook – which about 90 percent of all people who read this site might be able to buy into would be that of evolving a shared computational future.

Let’s start by what is a baseline national income?  Baseline electronica (phone, web, text etc) and how do we reform the tax crooks so that the anti-human machines are differentially taxed in order to replace the income tax humans doing the same work would produce and thus contribute to the general welfare….

To do this, what I’d propose is an organization using distributed MASS COMPUTING (like SETI search, yah? Despite ugly politics, there are some smart people at Berkeley) and let everyone have ideas, model them, and then implement a “one citizen, one vote” (block-chained) that would provide for a securely involved electorate.

(Yes, CITIZEN or GREEN CARDs only…jeez haven’t we learned anything from the divide and conquerors?)

Like our other ideas (close down Washington and send all politicians back to their home states and conduct all hearing and negotiations on Skype, so we can pour some real by-God daylight on this stinking swamp) this one is likely to go nowhere, as well.

On the other hand, it does answer trolls and haters who say “Ure just whines and never has answers…”  Yes! He actually does have ideas, but pearls before SMS swine, brothers and sisters…

But on a Monday morning when all we have is a cold rain in the midst of “global warming” seems to me that it’s time to get outside the box and go peaceful reform the shit out of this 150-year farce.

Or maybe I’m just cranky & testy this morning.  (Where’s my ViseGrips and crack pipe?)

Surfing the Useless

Plug your nose and here we goes:

Mark Zuckerberg: I’m not running for public office.  (Why bother?>  There’s more power in filtering FB isn’t there?)

N. Korea insists it can now strike US bases, Japan.

(Marvelous, just bloody Marvelous.  Thanks Xi! Without China’s buy-in, Kid Korea would be long gone by now.)

HINDSIGHT 20/20 Billy Bush laments ‘locker room talk’ with Trump…  Let’s see who plays Trash and Bash tomorrow, shall we?

Bloated’ supermodel fired   (I did headline this Useless, right?)

US Dept. of Useful:

Tony Robbins: Hidden fees are killing your retirement plans.  RFO.

Sweden: Migrants Responsible For 90% of Shootings.  But then again, we have been talking about the re-conquest of Europe for how long?

But at the same time, says a report here, “A grant from the U.S. embassy in Belgium designates $200,000 for a group to promote positive narratives about refugees and immigrants in Europe….”

(Lighter for the pipe again, please?)  For the U.S., even bad government would be an improvement.

Last, but not least, don’t let your spouse read “Why It’s So Hard to Admit You’re Wrong.”

We can just keep it among ourselves…provided you come back tomorrow for another double-dose of fun, frolic, and frivolity…

Now, get out there and go work your ass off for the Man for another week, will yah?

Comments

Climate Change? Maybe…. — 33 Comments

  1. “CITIZEN or GREEN CARDs only…jeez ”

    NO! Voting is a right reserved exclusively for US citizens! Green card holders are lawful permanent resident aliens, and they are generally a very good lot. They have the right to apply for US citizenship after 3-5 years(depending on circumstances) and passing certain background, English language, and American history tests. They can live here for a lifetime but MAY NOT vote unless and until they become US citizens.

    • I am in total agreement.. Voting rights are for Citizens Only……

  2. “Climate Change? Maybe….”

    I heard America is going to get real serious real quick on climate change..
    the plan to stabilize the climate….
    Move Congress around during the few days a year that they actually do something.. or maybe they don’t anyway.. they discovered that there is a huge wave of hot malodor air where ever Congress is as a group .. by moving them around will help stabilize the climate and clean the air..

  3. The East side of the Rockies for the last two years in May has had snow down to 6000 ft. It does seem like the seasons have shifted. I was enjoying 60-70 degree weather most of January through March and riding my mountain bike on bone dry trails 3 or 4 days a week in the Denver area. The ski areas to the west of the city had decent snow most of the Winter with over 100% of normal snow pack.

    We are on track to have a large amount of rainfall now through the end of the month which is similar to last May. I know that this is a weather report I’m giving not a climate profile but two years in a row does get ones attention.

    • Phew.. I wish it would warm up here.. My tomato plants are looking a little droopy from this cold spring..almost thinking about putting a hot bed cover over them

  4. And, in the “I don’t know where I am. They just point me in the right direction and I go there” department:

    “The President Just Told a Room of Israelis (In Israel) That He “Just Got Back From the Middle East”.

    HMMM. Where is Israel again Mr. President? And this guy is supposed to be the arbiter of Peace in this region? This is the same guy that walked back from his Muslim hate speech of his campaign. In his speech, he described Islam as “one of the world’s great faiths” — a far cry from a phrase he once used during the campaign when he said, “I think Islam hates us.”

    The GOP and Trump during his campaign highly criticized Obama when he took a diplomatic stance to the region rather than a hard line one. Of course, Trump is just being Presidential right? Or, did the lavishness of the events and his royal treatment had anything to do with it?

    The only thing Trump is consistent on is his inconsistency.

  5. Hello, George,
    This will be the second cooler-than-normal summer we have had up here in ten years. SWPC (Space Weather Prediction Center) shows x-ray flux down in the mid-A range, when it used to be in the lower B range unless there was a flare. I will expect more thunderstorms also (HSS protons from coronal holes, lets ‘charge up the planet’!). Some people here complain about the rain, but at least it keeps down the particulates (pollen, dust, smog). Well, they aren’t called the Cascades for nothing – cascading water, soil, rocks, etc. :-)

    Regards,
    Robert

  6. Sometimes you are full of crap when you complain about crap that “didn’t happen when Obama was President”…. for example, why didn’t you say that anti-abortion protesters boycotted the Obama commencement speech at the same university in 2009.

    Your double standard is offensive.

    • Useless liberal slop to answer: Pence did the Notre Dame speech (not Trump, you idjit) and the anti-abortion demo was because it’s a) a Catholic school and b) an emotionally Catholic issue…
      Maybe I need to simplify: 2009, Obama, Catholic anti-abortion issue.
      2017, Pence, they hate Trump was being sold
      Spin, spin, spin.
      Try apples to apples. Did Bush hole up across town with his Valerie Jarrett et all and call in plays?
      No? That’s my point. Too simple for you?>
      Lack of mental acuity is offensive, too…

  7. “…so that the anti-human machines are differentially taxed…”
    I think we’ve already got that. They’re called corporations with their own tax laws. They are not human, yet they have more than human rights and advantages.

    • OMG now we get into Peoplenomics type content in Coping section tomorrow…

      • I want to further explain my enthusiasm for your technocrat as politician idea. It is a genius idea but I may be biased, because I am a self professed tech geek.

        And, after my extended stay in an area I can now call the “Bay Area”, (my cousin said I have to refer to it this way) I have decided this past weekend to move my family there. I am putting an offer in a home on Wednesday. Why?

        Well, for the very reasons you stated above. A ton of anti-human machines, and I love it. And guess what, the local politicians are devising legislation to tax the robots. The tax will go into re-training programs for those workers the robots replace. And, I think it is great. It really eliminates the crappy jobs Humans shouldn’t be doing anyway.

        While there, I saw nearly a hundred self driving cars, dozens of robots navigating the sidewalks delivering food, robots at Cafe X making lattes, more electric car sighting in 10 minutes than I see in 1 year out east and a wide spread co-habitation with technology I have yet to witness en-mass. There are even some robotic welder assist machines that are helping construct the dozens of new high rises being built here.

        Back home, I am considered an early adopter and tech freak of nature. In the Bay Area, I am behind the curve. Every home I viewed for sale was a solar powered, energy storing, smart phone controlled smart home. It seems to be the standard.

        But, instead of these robots and technology eliminating jobs, which they indeed do, it also raises the bar for locals to learn and adapt to replace those menial tasks and learn a new skill like coding or sales of those new technologies. With help from a robot tax, they will be able to land new jobs to replace the back breaking old jobs.

        Thanks to my cousin, uncle, aunt and others here, I have really gotten to know the area so much better and have realized that Life just moves faster here, which is really what people my age look for. Everywhere I go seems to be in wave of the future mode. And, the opportunities are limitless.

        My 27 year nephew and niece are making an absolute killing in tech sales. It’s what what they seem to train kids to be out here. My cousin is an CS engineer. If a person doesn’t have the aptitude or interest in being an engineer or scientist, there is always a career in the sales of those organizations. Either way, it is a job that pays well, well into the six figures.

        Since I am in tech sales, and frequently travel anyway, I can work remotely here at the same job. Plus, the progressive and energetic attitude out here really fits my overall views and values so much more than the southeast. The for sale sign on our primary residence goes in the yard on Wednesday.

        George, with your penchant for technology, sustainable living, living off the grid, and your mini-rant on the weather today, I am not sure why the perfect climate of California is not on your list of must live areas. I have traveled just about everywhere and have been coming out here enough to know that this place is pretty special. Of course, my relatives have been unrelenting in their “sales pitch” and have been coaxing me and my young family to come here for years.

      • :LOLO – just working on the real reasons – see Coping tomorrow and how the anti-human tax regimen works.

        The reason I won’t have Cali on my short list if way too high taxes asnd far too much gov’t interference. I don’t need a permission slip and no red flags out here. If I can dream it, I can build it.

        I won’t live in an area where a lynch mob can vote on the color I paint my house. Where they can tell me no ham radio antennas. They can tell me my stereo is too loud and I can’t park on the street…

        Screw that. Technology is just a fur-lined yoke, you yokel…but we love you and wish you luck. Just don’t do a big mortgage because when this bubble pops…you’ll thank us for thrifty, not techy. Get a yard and a garden, too.

        We got us a few tech oufits here in Texas, too. Damn shame you aren’t coming here. As global warming is over, it’s nice and cool nowdays

  8. Now a Technocracy I can definitely wrap my intellect around. I like that idea. And it seems you do too, huh George?

    Well if that is so, then Your bromance with Trump must be on the rocks. That because Trump is the polar opposite of a technocrat. How polar opposite? Well, it’s like comparing Einstein to an amoeba that sits on a clod of dirt that rests in a ramshackled, over crowded pen of diseased pigs. That’s how opposite. But, let’s all have respect for the President right? Give him a chance everyone says. Well, no! You can’t wish one thing and then support the opposite.

    Well, that great negotiator of yours just made a deal to sell hundreds of billions in arms to the Saudi’s. Today he is in Israel to try to explain that. Maybe they should stroke his ego with medals and orb rubbing and they can get what they want too.

    • @ Jon –

      He (Trump) makes deals – everybody gets what they want as long as Trump gets his cut of the action.

      What most people were hoping for with Trump was a backing off from the war drums and a slowing of the revolving door between big biz and big gov. It was just that – a hope. Now reality returns and things continue along the same trajectory as the previous 8 or 9 administrations.

      The problem with any “insert whatever -ocracy” is that there is a hierarchical structure that benefits a few at the expense of the many. In a technocracy, there will be technocrats just as there are bureaucrats, and an entire slice of people riding high, on the backs of the people doing the work.

      I have trouble seeing how all the departments, bureaus, agencies and inspectors for the myriad businesses we have benefit us very much. If people were simply free to choose, then they would choose what is best for them. Now we are not allowed full access due to the various filters of regulations, agencies, policies, etc.

      Would putting a ‘tech’ in place of a ‘bureau’ really make things better? Or just easier for gov and biz to control?

      A fine example being that outside America, we can buy a 60-80 mpg vehicle but we are not allowed that option here. Even In Mexico they can buy higher mpg vehicles than in the US.

      Need I go into medicine (where my hip cost $100k to replace and the same parts and procedure is $25k in Costa Rica) or pharmacology or food choices?

      You cannot legislate intelligence any more than you can legislate safety – in the end it is about people being able to choose and learn from their mistakes or not. Part of the issue here in the US is that the shallow end of the intelligence pool hasn’t been drained in generations due to legislation. Now the legislation is so egregious that we have drastically reduced choices.

      Other than having the word fragment ‘tech’ in it, how exactly would a “technocracy” really be significantly better? I am betting it would be significantly more complex to execute, and thus more vulnerable to problems.

      In a technocracy, I just imagine people wearing VR headsets and trying to walk in traffic – just as they do with their smart phones today….

      • You make some good points oilman. I just see that along with a technocracy, you may also have some AI influence helping make more reasonable or at least computational legislation. Just as a smart home controls the efficiency and regulates my energy budget down to net zero, I can predict a smart government approach to legislation. This takes the emotion our of politics. Ever try to argue with Siri? This scenario is scary and exciting at the same time.

        And George, what community are you talking about in California. There are neighborhoods here just like neighborhoods anywhere else in the country. My uncle and cousins live in a very well off neighborhood and they have no restrictions on what color they paint their house, or antennas or music choices etc. To the contrary, they are big entertainers and pretty much have the freedom to do whatever they want. Part of being liberal is being liberal about stuff like this too. And yes, part of the reason I am putting an offer on this particular house is that it has a full, sustainable garden and a very modern looking chicken coop. (Chickens not included) and this is also in a very upscale neighborhood. And no restrictions on where you can park either. So, as far as your restrictions, I know of a bunch of places like that, but they are all in gated communities in Georgia, not California. And, yes, you do have tech companies in Texas, (a fraction of the Silicon Valley, but a substantial amount compared to other states) but as in Georgia, the weather sucks

  9. Climate Changes come and go! Gregg Braden has a great youtube presentation showing how climate has varied over the last 400,000 years using ice core data. It shows that CO2 emissions follow the upward trend in earths heating rather than causing the increase of heating!

    • What it will also show is that we are near the end of the longest inter-glacial warming trend ever. We are also seeing the north and south poles wander faster and approach each other, along with the biggest decline in our magnetosphere since we understood it existed. We are at the end of a 400 year solar cycle too.

      So “climate change” is the new normal, but it just may be that our kids and grand-kids may encounter it more “bigly”. (LOL a Trumpism…LOL)

      Personally, we just lost about 1/3 of our new sprouted veggies to gumball-seized hail at dawn on Sunday. As George said, we have yet to hit 90 degrees here, and that is very different from even last year, and different from the previous decade.

      It doesn’t take genius to realize that the sun is the big arbiter of our climate, as it is for the other planets. The second climate thing is our oceans, which make us different from the other planets. Then we have biomass, which is also different, serving as an additional climate buffer, in concert with the oceans.

      A little critical thinking indicates that humanity is low on the list of climatic variables…

      • A couple of decades ago (before the temps in ‘outlying areas’ a.k.a. ‘rural areas’ were subtracted/disregarded illogically) computer models always showed the planet spiraling down inevitably into another ice age. Subtract the data ‘causing’ the ‘problem’, and a former VP writes a book about ‘warming’. Go figure. BTW, just for the record, and to try to keep people from sounding inane, the expression is ‘BIG LEAGUE’, NOT ‘bigly’. Don’t be afraid of the silent letters.

  10. Here in Saddlebrooke about two hours drive South of where you may move, we had a rain in May which never happens and we will get our first 100 degrees in the first week of June also late.

      • Chris, you live just north of downtown Tucson. It is supposed to be 104 Degree’s F today. I’m near Broadway and Swan. Maybe since you are higher you’ll be at 99 degree’s. LOL ;-)

  11. Well George you know as well as I that the two Koreas would have been re-united long ago except for us. And then along came Nam, and we were hell bent on keeping them divided and went to war to prove it, and this country has been going down the rat hole ever since,so I guess there is something to the old saying you reap what you sow…

    • Amen…and some of the same ‘neo con war mongers’ are still in positions of authority……Semper Fi

  12. “BOTH political parties need to be replaced and as this becomes clear to more and more people, the Computational Party will likely make an appearance.” Not before a ‘coup of some major proportion’ has been accomplished ;-). Our just elected POTUS proved that he was not apt for the task at hand, and I doubt we’ll see any of this in our lifetime.

    • The cool thing: If you bought a gold coin at $300 or less, and still have it (I have m y lone coin) there’s no tax evasion.

      In order to evade, first you need a tax event to trigger – a sale – and ab sent that, it’s just outright confiscation for NOT booking a gain. Revolution in Greec e to follow if they are pulling that kinda shit

  13. Same 30 days late here in the Idaho redoubt. But I still maintain that averages always “average” it all works out in the long run. The climate has always fluctuated and we always look at the present year as an abberation.

    • @ Quartermain

      The real problem with the entire climate subject is that the cycles concerned exceed generations. We expect things to unfold before our eyes, but they unfold as they are wont to. Our error is that we ignore history in favor of a “quick answer” and the concurrent “quick fix”.

      The truth is the average temperature has been declining for centuries, and this is what many dishonest scientists have been falsifying to support the “global warming” meme. This makes sense when you look back hundreds of thousand of years and see the obvious cycles of temp, ice, and oxygen, etc.

      It averages out, but the averages are all trending towards cooling. IMHO, the obvious abnormalities would be more extreme cooling events, which would be in line with the cooling trend.

      • Well, the “quick fix” hope may be true of the Climate Change/Global Warming foot soldiers but the real impulse from the top of that food chain was the increased control of people and their money by the people like Gore. We both know it was and still is a power grab. Simply because it forced people to allocate spending toward new products doesn’t mean those products or services promoted anything other than a draining of assets that could have been better spent by those who owned them in the first place. I can appreciate increased efficiency but replacing capital items on a mandate rather than at the end of their useful life cycle only hurts economic progress.

      • Well stated Oilman2.

        The obfuscation of the actual current and trend data dominated primarily by the moving and weakening geomagnetic poles and fields and the declining solar cycle (both cycles within cycles) clearly indicates the next Grand Minimum is afoot. The group think thought meme of AGW is one of the greatest hoaxes perpetrated on mankind next to religious belief systems.

      • Toss in the hoax of “paper has value” and you’d have a grand slam…just sayin