Carnac of Markets

The Wikipedia entry sees all, explains all, about this morning’s column:

Carnac the Magnificent was a recurring comedic role played by Johnny Carson on The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson. One of Carson’s most well-known characters, Carnac was a “mystic from the East” who could psychically “divine” unknown answers to unseen questions.”

Thing is, based on our latest spin on our Trading Models, we will “walk the plank” this morning and posit some near-term futuring. Because while many people make absurd claims about the future, it’s becoming clear from our experience that the real future to expect is the one predicted by the PWM – People With Money.

(Continues below)

 

Let me see if I can summarize it simply.

Over on the www.peoplenomics.com side of the house, not only do we occasionally use observed data to write some down-right scary scenarios – like yesterday’s piece on how the PTB are planning to implement a return to 1930’s population (and technology) levels which they need to because of overpopulation and “under-jobulation” thanks to robos and software – but we also build sketchy computer models that attempt to “get ahead of the world.”

And, if you ask subscribers, we do this pretty well sometimes.

I know…that should be enough.  But it’s not.

It has been percolating since age 21 when I first hit the street as a “beat reporter” in major market radio, that there’s is an odd relationship between how markets move and then how the news flow fills-in to accommodate.

With our latest close-in modeling tweaks, we can now make an “ejumacated” guess both at the financial future as well as the news flow.

So which should we do first?

The market, of course.

The short version goes something like this:  We have been tinkering with how the human mind works and how, each day when the market closes, the stock market “makes a prediction” about how tomorrow will look.

It operates on two important psychological premises:  The first being that recall (memory) has a semi-exponential declining access rate.  This means while you might remember what you had for lunch yesterday, as you go back and attempt to write the list of past lunches, most people can’t go back even a week.  It gets worse, as you get older, by the way.  That will give our Millennials something to look forward to, lol.

The second psychological premise is that continuation bias exists.  In other words, if the market is at (or very close) to equilibrium at Wednesday close, it will be looking forward to today’s Thursday opening.

Take these two concepts, marry them, shake well, add ice, bake for an hour at 350 F, make a gravy to go with it and it looks like this as of the close on Wednesday (don’t worry your little head about the numbers in column #2 –  it’s a projected moving average):

There is a ton that I won’t go into here – it will remain proprietary and for Peoplenomics.com readers.  But you can see that today, the market SHOULD go up.  Tomorrow, if the market goes NOWHERE today, we might expect a decline.  But the outcome tomorrow should be such that we see the market rally a bit by the close today, and then hold, or rally, tomorrow.

Near Friday’s close, the market will project Monday, and so on.

So much for Part 1, except to note that the Dow futures were down 0.21% when we looked, but the NASDAQ Composite was up 0.19%.  This will all get worked out in the first hour, or so of trading (“the Amateur Hours”) when professional fund managers bend ’em over and have their way with the retail small-time traders.  About 10 AM Central is when I look at things.

OK, simple version:  Market closed yesterday saying today would likely be an up day.  Today, we are expecting more/further “good news” in the media.

Except for Donald Trump Jr. who is going to be BBQ’ed on the Hill today followed predictably by NE liberal media swill writing mostly made-up “Russia” crap.  We expect that good news around Irma will just light up the lefty-idiot-children of the radical left with more Trump-basing BS.

Go read about Colbert’s false Trump claim. This kinda crap is everywhere – lies repeated and retweeted by idiots.

NuMerica’s being led mindlessly around by antifa agitprop. But you can see it until you pass financial puberty – which we reckon is about age 40 these days.  It’s when you stop dinging the parents for freebies and pay Ure own way 100%.

Hurricane Irma Fits

While our interest in meteorology is limited to that necessary to fly airplanes back and forth across the country – which we’ve done a bit of – using the market outlook, we should see a major improvement in the Irma outlook as the day goes on.

You could already sense the shift in this part of today’s early forecast discussion.

“Irma has become a little less organized during the past few hours.
Data from an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500
UTC indicated that the central pressure had risen to 921 mb and
that the winds had decreased both at the 700 mb flight-level and in
surface estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer.
Since that time, the eye has become cloud filled and the central
convection has become somewhat ragged. The initial intensity is
lowered to 155 kt, and this could be a little generous. The next
aircraft is scheduled to reach Irma around 1200 UTC.”

What does it mean?  Well, simply that when the markets were projecting a move today to the upside (using our projected moving averages method) they may also have been saying “You know, this thing may not be worse than Harvey, after all.”

Today, as the weather data firms up, and we slog through six hours of trading, Ures truly will “run the numbers” again and see what is being predicted for tomorrow and we will then adjust our account positions accordingly.

Simple, huh?

Well, except for the stepped frequency microwave radiometer part.  The SFMR works how?

“The SFMR has a downward pointing antenna which passively reads the microwave radiation coming from the ocean surface. By making assumptions about the vertical structure of the atmosphere together with sea surface temperature measurements by a downward-looking airborne infrared radiometer, reasonable estimates of the ocean surface brightness temperature can be made at six frequencies between 4.6 and 7.2 GHz. Wind speeds are then calculated assuming linear increase in wind speed with these brightness temperatures. Since some of the frequencies are more attenuated by rainfall than others, an estimate of the rainfall rate below the airplane can also be made.” Says this NOAA page here.

While stopping short of the predicted technology in my new book (*Dimensions Next Door) where the logical next step would be radio interferometry based on simultaneous, rather than discrete frequency agility (the chapter of multiplexing will help, lol), this is bang-on technology and it’s almost laughable how stories like this have been literally falling into my lap since I began work on the book.

Whew!

Since getting up Wednesday at 2:45 AM to work on Peoplenomics, I have a) further tuned our forward-looking market tools, found there is technological toward radio interferometry that may like behind stories like the Philadelphia Experiment (the ones of the USS Timmerman, not the Eldridge), and we may be on our way to solving (at least from the theoretical standpoint) reported incidents of time-travel and electronic fog.

Cool, huh?

The major disappointment is the engineering outfit that makes the frequency-agile airborne radiometry isn’t publicly traded.  Damn shame, that, because they’re nibbling on the edges of what could be the Next Big Thing.  More on that in the book.

Where were we?

In Other News (

More of that “good news” I was mentioning: Oil firms as U.S. Gulf refineries restart, dollar softens.

With Congress acting like a bunch of damned idiots (and we apologize to damned idiots for the slur on them) here’s a hopeful: Govs. Kasich and Hickenlooper: A Bipartisan Approach to Stabilizing Our Nation’s Health Insurance System.

More construction spending from Bezos et al as “Amazon plans $5 billion second headquarters in North America.”

Don’t laugh at East Texas.  Land is cheap and there’s no traffic during “rush” hour.  You could make the world’s first Tech City…and remember, Texas has its own grid independent of the rest…

Also in the battle for “What’s in Ure wallet?” Chinese logistics firm Best, backed by Alibaba, launches $930 million U.S. IPO.

High resolution expensing? GoPro expects to post adjusted profit in third-quarter.

New Productivity Data

Hot off the Labor Department handout:

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 1.5 percent during the second quarter of 2017, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.0 percent and hours worked increased 2.5 percent. (All  quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, productivity increased 1.3 percent, reflecting a 2.8-percent increase in output and a 1.5-percent increase in hours worked. (See tables A1 and 2.)

Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2017, reflecting a 1.8-percent increase in hourly
compensation and a 1.5-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs
decreased 0.2 percent over the last four quarters.

Janet Spotting Season Opens

In the NYT today: Morning Agenda: Question Mark for Fed’s Top Spot

Retraining the Navy

Likely to be a very big deal with Trump, et al, since we all know it was Obama who gutted the US .mils.  And that’s why when the story popped that “US Navy says most 7th Fleet warships lacked proper certification” we put that on the Obamanation.

Seems to us that he was too busy “did-enforcing” things like immigration law and grandstanding for the left, rather than carrying out the Constitutionally mandated things.  Like keep the Navy squared-away and ready to kick ass.

But like Hillary on Russian uranium, he gets a pass…’cept from us.

Lemme see…is there anyone we haven’t pissed off yet this week? Hmmm…

We’ll take a whack at that when we come back for “Moron the ‘morrow.”

Comments

Carnac of Markets — 11 Comments

  1. this pretty much says it..the difference is..Every time I turn on a network news station this is what I hear congress is saying .
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5x2xBa8p0A

    and because we are the idiots that keep voting in the same old monkeys . We truly do deserve the crap they dish on the plate for us to eat up and they do it with a nice big smile…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5x2xBa8p0A

    while they are in the backrooms doing…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGIr4Mq_4C8

    • Ok – maybe headline didn’t say it all. Not saying that I agree with the view that it will hurt innovation and opportunity. And fortunately, all the robots I know are tethered, so they won’t come after me for saying that taxing them is a good idea.

  2. Amazing how “stabilizing health care” always means throwing more money – a new fund – at it……. but only for 2 years until health care costs are stabilized.

    I promise you…… after 45 years in the biz, it ain’t gonna happen. We need tax reform/relief, not throwing those dollars (more dollars) at the docs and hospitals and carriers!

    • follow the money.. who is sending money to whom to get what they want.. its all a business model

  3. @ John in nw colorado…

    With the Dicamba mess, with Roundup removing large chunks of organisms from farm soils and a few good floods or droughts – it isn’t hard to disrupt ag anywhere.

    The problem with the entire tower thing is that the soil needs to be alive, so it needs to be fed. Hydroponics take large inputs and lots of monitoring, and have some really nasty waste effluent – like chicken houses do in big ag grow-ops. All this has to be trucked or pumped in and out – the soil isn’t renewed except by artificial additives ($) and heaven forbid it gets tired from non-stop growing…

    This is a problem posing as a solution for people who are wishing for a specific answer.

    • the problem OM2.. is we let it happen.. it happened real slow.. slow enough we didn’t see it coming..and those that did were crackpots..

  4. I look at the markets an hour earlier than you do (10 am EST). I think I got this from Jim Cramer. I have never had a good idea I didn’t borrow from someone.

  5. Hey old dude, i will catch ya on the flip side. I am waaaay to busy with life.

    Plus I think it’s time for me to go fetch me another woman from the herd. (Chuckle)

    It’s been a nice visit again. Told ya stocks wouldn’t collapse in august. Lol. On ward and upward.

    Leave ya with a song.

    Link: https://youtu.be/ePjFAZKWKVo

    Off to grab 18 gears. Stop being so damn serious. *joking. You almost seem chipper today. Lol I will pass on your book for now.

    Like I said, it is good for me to be wrong sometimes. ;) see I’m not perfect too. Ahhh much much better. I like just being a regular guy.