Can The New England Patriots Cause Market Disaster?

imageOh, sure, the market will make one final little bounce at the open this morning.

The half-time show wasn’t ruined with a terrorism attack, the game was played like any other, but the one residual problem is called the Super Bowl Indicator.

Here’s how it works:

If the AFC wins, the Super Bowl Indicator claims the market will decline.  Since the Patriots were the winners of the AFC North (and won) while the Seahawks were NFC West, the market should decline markedly in short order.

Thankfully, I’m not the lone nutter on this:  the observation is backed up by an Investopedia entry.

The Investopedia entry is worth study because they claim the indicator has only about an 80% accuracy which is far less than my own 100% accuracy, lol.

So stand by for the stuff to hit the fan — Just not right away – as in this morning.

Still, given that the market is getting dangerously close to the 200 day moving average and the collapse in a heap last Friday…

I’ll check with Robin Landry to see how the monthly MACD closed, but I’m guessing it cross down.  But already my friend Roger Reynolds has checked in with this:

Do you know many certified financial planners??? IF so, ask them “IF” they follow the old FABIAN mutual fund switching system.—–That is, as long as the dow stays above it’s 200 day average——red line at stockcharts.com, then stay fully invested in stock mutual funds. “IF” the dow goes below the 200 day average(red line) then sell stock funds and go to cash.

In my opinion, they sold in October, but the fed goosed the market back up and they bought back pushing the averages to new highs. Now, the dow has fallen and is only about 100 points above that RED LINE. Will the dow fall and especially close below that red line??? WATCH CAREFULLY!!!! “IF” the dow closes below the red line, then the mutual fund switchers should once again sell everything.—-Consider, this is the way markets are supposed to top out—–volatility.

Of course, you can skip the Stanford MBA and the doctorate at the London School of Economics and just watch the Super Bowl.

Patriots of the AFC says it all.

(and yes, I corrected the Steelers which was written before coffee soaked in, lol)

Baltic Dry Index

I keep mentioning it because it has been sinking faster than your popularity ranking after a garlic sandwich: 

This morning it’s down to 590, which is near enough to where you should be able to hear water falling off the edge of the world any minute.

Friday is was down at 608 – definitely in Replay of 2009 levels.  But as an ex-Seattleite, please blame Pittsburgh.

The Great Tug of War

So, how does it work?  Anyone who has studied history knows that we will have deflation first (look the hell around you!) and we’ll go through the Roaring Twenties Replay.  But it’s useful to keep an envelope handy (like the bank of those unpaid bills) to keep score on:

From the emails:

UK manufacturing bounces back as factory costs tumble

Deflation the danger as China’s factories struggle

Worry About Deflation, Not Inflation

Eurozone alarm grows over Greek bailout brinkmanship

And if that’s not enough fun for you, this week sees a line-up on economics data

Feedlot Economics: Income and Expenditures

If you’re like me, you know the expenditures part all too well.  So let’s skip right to this:

PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS, DECEMBER 2014

Personal income increased $41.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $35.8 billion,
or 0.3 percent, in December, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
decreased $40.0 billion, or 0.3 percent.  In November, personal income increased $47.2 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI
increased $34.2 billion, or 0.3 percent, and PCE increased $58.8 billion, or 0.5 percent, based on revised estimates

Clive Cussler, one of my favorite fiction writers, would be hard-pressed to come up like gems like this one:

Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $643.2 billion in December, compared with $568.2 billion in November. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 4.9 percent in December, compared with 4.3 percent in November.

Especially with stories like this from the authoritative NY Times:

MORE than half of American households have less than one month of income available in readily accessible savings to use in case of an emergency, a new report from the Pew Charitable Trusts finds.

It’s just more of what I call “Feedlot Statistics” because when comes right down to it, with 319-million people, each of us ought to have saved $2,016 in the quarter which (cough) smells kinda feedlot, know what I mean, bubba? ROFLOL…

Auto sales tomorrow, ADP Employment numbers Wednesday, Challenger job cuts Thursday, and the Unemployment report Friday.  Sleeper of the week (if all this economic stuff hasn’t sent you to ZZ-land yet) is the Feral (sic) Reserve’s Consumer Debt report. 

If they were really honest it would be a very short report:  “The country is up to its ass in debt” but they insist on much greater detail.  It’s like telling a drowning man how deep the water is.

Beyond a few hundred feet, does it matter?

Just How Fast Are Bastards?

Say, that’s a mighty unique question, huh?

But thanks to the miracle of unbounded government greed, we should be able to answer the question in short order.

That’s because we will soon see a collision between stories about how congressoids are thinking about raising the federal gas tax – many states are lusting, too – it’s like Playboy could run a centerfold of a gas pump at $1.59 and every perv in govt. would buy it.

So how do we calculate speed of (lying) bastards?

Read the story “Drop In Gas Prices Nationwide Coming To End; Md. Still Trending Down.”

Then bookmark the Triple A Fuel Gauge report and watch the blazing speed with which government will try to pick our pockets in the next BOHICA (bend over, here it comes again)  due along this winter/spring.

The race is on.  To fined out the losers, watch the prices and wait.

Or for early results  just go check the mirror.  Then grab your ankles…BOHICA!

California Drought Returns

Actually, it never went away, except in headlines.

This morning we’re reading how there’s been no rain so far this year in the SF Bay area.

I’m sure this will bother no one, but me.  I’ve been predicting that California will become unsustainable due to drought and would collapse in short order.

So far, few are paying attention to my historical data about droughts in the region hundreds of years ago (remember the Anasazi?).  Worse: this will be a marvelous marketing tool to convince the hapless sheeple that we need global government and a global tax to fix Ma Nature who has been broken for (lemme see here…um…) 1.3 billion years, less if we just count from the last Ice Age.

There’s a sucker born every minute and 435 elected every two years.

(Cite the source if you steal that, –please.)

Meantime, it will snow in the Northeast again.   Nickel bet says Hizzoner in NY will get this one wrong, too…

And the Next War Is?

This morning’s envelope says “Ukraine” with a rebel leader promising to raise 100,000 men for his cause.

The problem of Ukraine is simple:  The country has petroleum reserves (Donetsk Basin), good manufacturing (which Russian .mils need) and the EU wants because they need to keep putting victims in the EU Ponzi line in order to keep the myth of returns alive.

So, if you like to bet on war, this is where smart money seems to be flowing.  Except, wait:  How can both sides be smart?  Hmmm…

Comments

Can The New England Patriots Cause Market Disaster? — 8 Comments

  1. George,

    Speaking of the NFL and markets, my ‘little voice’
    last week said to me to watch the NFL from a socioeconomic angle. I heard a radio DJ’s trivia
    moment say that the first superbowl tickets could be had for $10. The current cost is $6500. True or not, I don’t know. But I am curious; where is the point where society will see lesser value in pro sports? With the NFL in the news, is it starting to crack and crumble?
    How packed was the stadium? I didn’t watch. I was too busy playing with my trains.

  2. Our SF Bay Area News last night — Workers at Tesoro refineries are threatening strike action because they have been working without contracts for the last six months or a year.
    They are shutting down the local refinery right now, and if the strike goes on very long it WILL reduce supply in our local markets…. there are 65 other Tesoro facilities across the country likely to get involved.
    Funny how everything transpires to keep the price of gasoline up.

  3. Really strange we can build a pipeline from the top of Alaska for oil – but we can’t build a water line from the soggy east to the dry west – and it’s not as if it is nearly as difficult.

    • And if the water line breaks, it won’t be nearly as polluting or poisonous or difficult to clean up, either.

  4. George, you might want to double check who played last night in the Super Bowl. The New England Patriots won for the AFC!