After a hellacious run-up in the market, this we ought to be an interesting one on a number of fronts.
First off, the consumer price index is due out Wednesday morning and it should show inflation is being held relatively in check.
This is a report that used to come out like clockwork on the 15th of the month, but now (for whatever reason) they gov’t can’t seem to get its poop in a group as quickly as back in the old days.
In the meantime, it will be pass the NoDoz as Fed member Jerome Powell speaks in St. Louis at a community banking conference and I hit the espresso to listen in on (yet another) Ebola conference call.
Tomorrow might be a good morning to sleep in, too, because about the only news then will be some minor existing home sales data that unless you pedal real estate for a living, ain’t exactly a biggy.
The real financial story today is about how Europe is now going down the same Make Up Money path that the US Fed has been down with the “quantitative easing.”
You’ll see how the European Central Bank(sters) are planning to buy up covered French bonds over at this-here link.
You might think that the bankrupt collective of loser countries (the Ure-a-peein Union) making up money in order to swim in liquidity would be wildly bullish for gold and silver – the best of traditional inflation hedges.
Sure enough, gold is up several bucks and silver is up a few cents, too. But it’s not like the skies have parted and the Hallelujah choir is singing about your bank balance rising. Ain’t gonna happen, pleeb.
The game is to keep you In the Zone between pissed-off-enough-to-revolt while still working hard enough to make the rich-richer. It’s an ugly place to run a country, but it is what it is.
Today, the futures are backing off and down about 80 as IBM earnings weighed in. Got to blame someone… maybe if you watched Halt and Catch Fire this would make more sense.
Triple A’s fuel price survey says the price of gasoline was $3.352 a year ago and it’s down to $3.10 this morning. That’s about a 7 1/2% decline.
If you look over here, you’ll see that crude a year ago was in the $93 range and was under $83 this morning. That’s down more than 10%. So where is the other 2 1/2% going?
Sure, some goes to middlemen and gas station operators. But if you want to see government at work, try looking at how much a gallon is going into state and federal coffers. California is collecting $0.713 on gasoline and $0.74 on diesel. Of that, only $0.184 is the federal bite…the rest goes to Sacramento.
Avgas, by the way, is holding around $6 a gallon many places, so we’re not doing as much traveling at the moment. We need to knock over a few more banks before our next big adventure.
Or, cash in some call options….which may happen once the rally now in progress peaks out. The speculative part is waiting to see what the CPI figures come in as; that will likely drive developments in the second half of this week.
News Cycle/Disease Cycle
With no additional cases popping up this weekend, looks like the momentary madness over Ebola will begin to wind down.
There was an almost audible sigh of relief when Texas state officials got the lab results this weekend that a laboratory technician who had worked on Ebola samples in Dallas tested negative and the Carnival Magic is as safe as ship as ever.
So much so we may have to start looking for some last-minute cruise deals…there would be some real bargains here in the next couple of weeks.
More after this…
Speaking of Weather
A new career comes into focus in California: Water Cops.
Not like California is alone: The drought continues in Brazil, too.
We have to wonder if (or when) someone is going to wake up to the cutting down the rain forests may have as much to do with the drought cycle as manmade warming sources?
Oh, wait! That doesn’t press the global climate tax agenda forward…’scuse me for mentioning it!
Interesting Texas drought history piece here…but don’t mention it to anyone. Don’t want to climate police coming after you. It’s becoming a thought-crime nigh-on-to-treason to remember we were beset with droughts before all this climate change crap come rolling through.
It’s just back them, no one had figured out how to pull a global tax trick out of it.
Sometimes I don’t Understand
Fine: SecState John Kerry is off to (heavily Muslim) Indonesia to sell them on supporting the war on ISIS/ISIL.
But here’s the thing: Given that Barrack Obama has closer ties to Indonesia, why not send the fellow who’s got more “connection” with the place? Or maybe just a Skype video call…know what I mean?
Obviously, I don’t understand something. The odds of Indonesia sending troops of any consequence likely isn’t going to pay for the jet fuel and entourage hotel bill.
Turkey Going Warring
With Ebola predictably fading at the 21-day cycle, we can look for ISIS to move back into the headlines.
If you look over the Nostracodeus report this morning, something out to jump out at you.
I mean other than reminding Grady that today is October 20th not the 18th.
It’s the odd appearance of Moon in the context of Law coming around in the data.
We’re just starting to see the edges of this story, but it will likely be a very long carry-value as the Chinese detailed moon mapping mission a while back and the Russian probes have us wondering what kind of fight the ants here in the main colony are going to have as we work out ownership of a whole freaking baby planet?
To be sure, there may not be much resource up there…and it might not be something China’s going to go Texas Hold’em “All In!” for – especially if Ebola turns out to hit Asia hard.
Still, we’re picking up whiffs of “Who owns the Moon” amidst all the other moon references in the data pile.
I see a couple of ways to deal with this, the oldest and most likely is that we will fight over it and that will cause the mass destruction of lots of infrastructure on Earth and that in turn spurs economic growth.
All true, all repeatable, and all highly likely.
But wouldn’t it be fun to declare all of space (anything higher than 62 KM (Kármán line) to be a “new country?” A place totally depoliticized from Earth?
In fact, picture what a marvelous new frontier is everyone who ventured forth from Earth had to take an Oath to Something Bigger.
It might be written as Us leaving Them. Us would be anyone up space…no petty bullshit allowed, just on with exploring and learning. Want to go beat and bully and rape and pillage? Take the next ship down to the surface and say hi to Mad Max for us.
Or, we can just get back to the old ways of defense contracts and blow up this rock over that one.
Hell of a way to think on Monday, I’ll grant you.
So more tomorrow then. Maybe my vitamin D3 laced sunshine spirits will be back by then.