Buckle – Up Monday

You know when Monday is going to be a “building tensions” day when your first round of chess to limber-up the brain goes like this:

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By the 19th move, the computer was laughing “Mate in 3.”  So I haplessly concluded another entry in my journal:  Don’t play chess near the full moon; scores are lower.

Markets, too, get a little nutso around this period.  With yesterday being the full moon, we anticipate things will rally madly for a while, but then calm down, or even decline, as the moon phase shifts toward the last quarter and tomorrow’s dispensation of Producer Prices and then Wednesday’s Consumer Prices.

Toss in a possible second Trump Executive order on immigration – which as we discuss in the Coping section will lead to predictably more demonstrations and what-not – we expect weakness to evolve in coming weeks.

As long as we’re on  the mental/mindset part of the market, it should be noted that this coming summer we will have a full eclipse take a path directly through the U.S.

Those who are familiar with the work of Steve Puetz will recall his work suggesting that market crashes tend to occur when we see a solar eclipse in close proximity to a lunar eclipse.

Since we have one of those (lunar) coming up August 7 – and the solar is on August 21 – then we would have to put this in our sights as a high  probability time to be short the market, though we’ll let our trading indicators guide on that.

Still, what could a pile of put options cost?

There is a fascinating Elliott Wave problem to be faced here:  Market advances and declines happen in three or five (an d occasionally) seven wave “steps.”

The most terrible damage is almost always done in the third wave, but in exceptional conditions, the 5th waves are worst – particularly true in commodities.  We note in passing that stocks have been slowly becoming more “commodity-like.”

I laid all this out (and some “through future darkly”) for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers this weekend.  For today, the Dow futures are pointing up 50, but ,with CPI coming that could be a major “buy the rumor – sell the news” event…which would then possibly set up the final manic run into the record books.

A good deal will depend on how foreign markets perform, though….and we’ll update that outlook Wednesday.

Record Tax Collections

U.S. Treasury data over here says tax collections are up – way up.  That’s the news.  Now some simple analysis:

January a year ago the reduction in the deficit was $55.163 billion.  This January, though the deficit reduction was only $51,257 billion.

To be sure, $344 billion income as opposed to $315.6 billion the previous year is a nice number, but expenses were up more so the deficit came down.

Down in Table 3 you can see $197.23 billion of January income was from individuals while corporations paid only $9.145 billion.

For the whole Federal fiscal year, humans will pay 1.544 TRILLION while corps will pay $298-billion.

Still, we are on track for a much large federal defict – and I’m telling you all these data so when you see stories in the MSM about how “Feds collect record taxes” you won’t jump to the conclusion that a tax cut would be a good thing.

A number of subscribers didn’t like our cold view that says a Trump tax cut would be a bad thing…but the conditions of today (bottom of the long wave interest rate cycle) is about as close to a doppelganger opposite of the Reagan era conditions as you’ll find.

Moreover, economists of the era, I think foolishly – claimed it was trickle down working.

Complete horse crap:  Of course you’re going to have growth when the damn personal computers were going mainstream for heaven’s sake.  HP, Compaq and all those giants were just in the ramp-up.

Nope…nothing like the seeds of the information revolution in sight so saving tax cuts for when the economy hits a major decline would be much sounder policy.

Yeah, yeah…I know…who gives a rip about “sound policy?”  Touché.

Pawns to Slaughterhouse Three.

Fear and Trumpedation

20,000 anti-Trump demonstrators marched this weekend in Mexico City.

Do the math:  Population of Mexico City is 8.851 million.  So the size of the demonstration was what?

A little over 2-10ths of one percent.  (0.22596%).

Next demonstration?  Sure…

200 African Muslims marched in the Bronx about Trump’s E.O. (x?) on travel.

Do the Math:  Population of The Bronx is 1.419 million (2013 data).  So the participation level works out to a whopping what?

0.014%   Which we would call about one-one-hundredth of one percent since under a last digit op 5 you round down.

Although we expect the anti-Trump media will change the rules of math in which case it would be 2-one-hundredths of one percent…

You see how “big movements” turn into wildly marketed tiny little farts when you get the calculator after things?

Even in Berkeley – those paid “demonstrators.”  What?  1,500 maybe?

Population of Berkeley is 115,768 (2013 data) so 1,500 (some paid) isn’t that big. But wait – wasn’t it just 150 – likely the paid ones?   Again, we do the math:

1.28%. of 0.128%.

Berkeley has a large problem:  They have a lame/unprepared police department which took a “hands off” attitude – netted only a tiny handful of rioters – and was totally unprepared for Black Block Tactics.

My liberal friends hate it when I diss Berkeley as “no so smart.”  But then I look at the balance of the community and run the numbers. Sheesh.

Oroville Dam Jitters

Well, here we go:”  This was the scene Sun day as the emergency spillway orr to the side of the Oroville Dam was spilling water from recent heavy rains.

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There we can see the water flow which could eat back toward Lake Oroville’s 1.1 trillion gallons of water.

Consequently,  ,more than 185,000 people have been evacuated downstream in order to avoid the potential for a Jonestown-type flood outcome if the dam should fail. 

What Happens When…

Eugenics meets racism?  Well you might get stories like “Black Lives Matter co-founder appears to label white people ‘defects’.”

This has been a very hard year for Ure’s truly and lots of middle Americans.  First we get labeled a deplorable.  Now we’re getting a “recessive genetics” label.

I can hardly wait for the next insults to arrive.  If you bump into George La Raza Soros, would you mind asking him?

In Case You Missed It:

Humans are not really in charge anymore…not as algorithms are taking over control of the world.

Interesting question of public policy does arise…since government claims power to regulate “dangerous pesticides” and such, why isn’t it setting up a plan to do what we think is obvious:

License the application and deployment of certain kinds of algos…

Comments

Buckle – Up Monday — 26 Comments

  1. While this is a comedy piece, it is astonishing to me how utterly ridiculous the real words and actions of the Trumptards and their leader make you want to gasp and laugh at the same time. Everything in this piece is WTF…hahahahah. See link.

    https://youtu.be/xecEV4dSAXE

  2. Have 10 pounds of Popcorn and just setting back and enjoying the freak show that is now in play.

  3. Eugenics meets racism: Let’s hope BLM never reads Margaret Sanger’s book- where she admitted she wanted birth control to be made available only to black people.
    (as you know, she is a hero of the women’s rights movement).
    On the other hand, the multi-lateral “victim contest” might be amusing to watch.

  4. A current photo of the area below the ’emergency’ spillway shows the erosion exactly as you indicated would happen.

    The weather has paused …more to come Wednesday… more to come with spring melt.

    Are locals there only willing to evacuate only when disaster is hours away not days away???

    Talk about lack of ‘preps’.
    Low gas tanks, no BOBs, no plans.
    Yes I am concerned about these people.

    {mm}

  5. Jeff T, what do you expect from someone who writes of “rocket surgeons”? (BTW, one of my favorite terms for smart people.)

  6. The media is not really covering this and I wonder why. With all the talk pre-election about Hillary using her private email server, Trump is using a very hackable Android phone to tweet, and view secure intelligence briefings. In fact, Trump has a scheme, where his friends can call his Android and he calls them back on his Presidential, BatS*#@t phone.

    Apologists say he is unconventional, but this is just plain irresponsible.

    And, When is he going to start really governing and stop picking fights with Mark Cuban, the media, and praising his totally incompetent Stephen Miller. The more he claims that the media that calls him out, is fake news, the more people are skeptical of his true intentions. He is incubating a re-creation of the “forgotten people” that voted for him in reverse. The 73% of registered voters that did not voter for him feel like they are being ignored and there is a Liberal Tea party developing that will crush him if he continues to act like he is a bratty 12 year old. What we really need is solutions oriented, diplomatic leader ala Reagan. I don’t think he has that in him. He still thinks he is managing manipulable construction workers.

    https://apple.news/AW6KxIcWPQgmWhegFyyPN8A

  7. LOL It looks like it is perfectly fine for BLM to label whites as genetically defective because of our lack of melanin. But labeling blacks as genetically defective because of their average lower IQ is racist. I’m absolutely sure that the lack of melanin is a defect given my propensity to get a sunburn if I even think about going outside in the summer without a hat and long sleeves. But since when is it OK to classify someone as less than human because of a characteristic they didn’t choose and can’t change?

    • What is even more annoying is the number of white lefties who will say BLM has every right to say and believe such things and to hell with any white person who feels differently.

    • Common sense does not exist in liberalistas mind sets, only racism against whites can fester and be approved. White males are at the top of the list.

  8. The Biggest problem with the US Giveamint…IS…spending….and the FED who allow the politicians to Spend with BORROWED $$$$$…..NO check and balances here…ALL one way….$4 trillion out going… $ 1 trillion..incoming from ..the Income taxes…STOLEN from the citizens…(check pre 1932)….as in NO INCOME TAX….you may then get the idea YOU have been lied to and pushed in the wrong direction as too make you comply with your own demise and enslavement….imho

    • Yes, distinctly remember George Bush the 2nd going to Alan Greenspan to request the money to take the USA into war. He got our owner’s permission to indebt us. Think of the criminality of the Fed.

  9. Just to throw a rock into the pond,
    What if all those Zombie and vampire movies is not about taking a life, but taking a lifestyle.

  10. Not “Jonestown” Flood, George – Jonestown was the Kool Aid mass suicide episode. The disaster was the Johnstown Flood on May 31, 1889.