Bonuses versus Tax Selling versus Dynamics

image(Back at the Ranch)  It’s the overworked analogy of the three-legged-milk-stool facing investors for the next couple of weeks..

While the Dow futures earlier were down about 50-75, this is a fine time to be working on market-direction judgment skills because we have three macro-trends and a seasonal factor going.

1.  There is a major concern around investment outfits about how “the numbers” will work out for the year.  In high-rolling firms, the bonus can be many times the salary of top decision-makers.

Here’s the problem:  The S&P 500 Index closed 2014 at 2,058.90.  Yesterday, the S&P closed at 2,041.89.  Down for the year.

So in order for the bonus pool to come in good (depending on how the compensation package is worked) a fund manager or sales type would need to turn in a barely positive performance for the year.

From the investor standpoint, the year as mostly sucked.  The return on a portfolio of S&P stocks (not accounting for dividends, bankruptcies, splits, and yada yah) is about nothing.

I won’t rub salt in the wound by mentioning something we kick around on the www.peoplenomic s.com side quite often:  The problem of where to invest when there is no ‘safe haven’ available.

So yes, there can be some hidden incentive to drive the market down in order for some managers to look relatively better than the overall slog.

2.  Tax selling happens every year.  The idea is that if you have a loser in your portfolio, you want to unload it real soon in order for the sale to settle ahead of the annual close. 

Most wise investors who aren’t psychologically married to loser instruments have been unloading since much earlier this year.  But there are enough “I know it’s going to change if I just hang in another few weeks…” types, that there is always something of a rush for the exit door about now.

Casinos are another place you find crowds of people who don’t understand runs in the statistical sense.

3.  Last but least, we have Dynamics.  (Not to be confused with Boston or Microsoft).

A long time back, I mentioned either here (or to Peoplenomics readers) that an idealized close on Dec. 31 this year would be an S&P of 1,983.76 based on my modeling work.

Just so’s you understand how good (or bad) our guesses are, here’s a summary of deviations from predicted S&P” levels on a daily basis from October 2 of this year:

image

That last line may not make sense, but what it means is that ideally, in my modeling of the world, the S&P would close today around 2,044.63.

The odds of that happening are very low, but the model gives us some ideas where things could/seem likely to go based on the notion that there is something of an historical replay underway that most people completely miss.  Except Peoplenomics.com readers, of course.

There’s more to it than “just history” – there is also the fact that major waves in market sentiment are somewhat self-similar.  In other words, the market closed yesterday 18 points from where it “should” have on a self-similarity basis.  Considering the position of the markets prior to the open, self-similarity between market moves is not a bad way to approach things.

But I digress.

The final point to consider:  If the market closes the year around 1,983.76 l on the S&P, this may be a different kind of approach to market analysis worth further attention.. 

No, I don’t expect it will “hit” exactly.  But to have some confidence (with 50-100 S&P points) on  where the market would end the year isn’t a bad thing.  Especially if that’s been on the drawing board since May when I began tinkering with the concept.

Even if the futures are saying Dow down 100 today, the model says the fat red guy rally ought to show up sometime…but beyond that, a soft downward trend through year-end seems to be the bigger scheme of things as they appear here in the Outback of East Texas.

Ukraine Goes Broke, Neocon’s Lose Their Syria Scam

Yeah – the Western corpgov media don’t seem to be mentioning much of two stories making it big in the Russian press today.

First off, for all their footsie-dancing with the EU, Ukraine is now broke and they will likely become the next Greece of the EU.  A quote from Russia’s Pravda explains:

“Noteworthy, the International Monetary Fund earlier acknowledged that Ukraine’s credit obligations were sovereign, rather than commercial. If Ukraine does not repay its debt to Russia before December 21, international creditors will cease to support the Ukrainian economy.

However, the IMF changed its rules to be able to continue crediting Ukraine, driving the country further into debt. Kiev has not adopted a budget for 2016 that would meet the requirements of the IMF, making a new loan impossible for the time being….”

The OTHER big score for Russia is that John Kerry met with Vlad Putin and has now accepted that Russia will not tolerate regime change in Syria.  You can read the details over here at Fox News…and there are likely peace talks to come

But the critical part is that NO ONE HAS BEEN FIRED FROM THE IDJIT-PACK AT STATE for what are arguably two of the worst-thought-out foreign policy blunders in recent memory.

All on Hillary’s watch and all with string pulling by Neocons still embedded in the State Department.  We are sooooo screwed.,….

Hillary scored another coup this week – when Vlad Putin expressed his admiration for Donald Trump – which is a slick-willy way to endorse Clinton:   Make it seem like Vlad likes Trump, people will weigh that negatively on the Trumpster, and the real agenda is this will bring more voters to Hil…oh, it’s a mess…but who needs socialism when you have Hillary, right?

And the former Republican Party…let’s not leave them out…

WRITE THIS DOWN

Notice how soon after the globalist-in-chief gets his plan for 10,000 MORE on top of 100,000 Syrian refugees funded by the Ryan – Obama wing of the GOP – how peace talks pop up?

Coincidence?  LOL

Repeat after me:  “We are hopelessly screwed…”

The Paul Ryan Sell-Out

As predicted:  Ryan’s Express is aiding and abetting the finishing off the remains of America I.

I’ve been telling you for months how the republican party no longer exists and how Obama and the lobbyistas have taken effective control of the formerly Grand Old Party.  The GOP has joined the Bolsheviks.

Now, after this incredible sell-out of American values, it should be clear why I am running for County Commissioner here in Texas as a member of the Porcupine Party.  It’s time to get the pricks out of government.

We are not alone.  The Hill has coverage of how Turncoat Ryan, without so much as a whimper, threw away actually building the fence along the Mexico border, built perfect cover for Hillary by pushing back the next round of Obamacare screwing until after She gets a run at the White House, and how NuDemocrat Ryan gave full funding to Syrian/ME refugees, most of whom hate us.  We have been blowing up their country, after all, by sending in arms to whoever

We elected some real geniuses, did we not?

What we are seeing, for sure, is the sun setting on America I and the installation of the Sovietcan (America II) government.

We will awaken only too late to find out Perestroika was a “soft finish” to the Cold War.  Am  I the only one who read Gorby’s book?

Not that anyone should be surprised.  This is what happens when politicians run on persuasion blocks and cash reports.  Instead of values and rights.

There’s some mighty strange shit coming out of the Kremlin  Washington lately – some one has the control files of the GOP and is twisting them around by the you-knows…

Immigration Idiocy

With a ton of immigrants lost in England, (see:Officials admit they LOST TRACK of thousands of migrants and 30k asylum seekers overstayed)  the government is having to “get tough” on immigrant funding. 

Go read “Britain to stop migrant benefits if they are harming public services under ’emergency brake’ plan…”

We will undoubtedly go through the same kind of”horse out of the barn after the fire” thinking here,  too. 

The BHS (bleeding heart socialists) will give them the shirt off your back, but not their own.  That’s how this stuff works.

Now, tell me you’re not as stupid as the Kneelers who still need to stand on soap boxes, even after claiming to be nominally “free.” 

Bernie and the Cookie Jar

Speaking of socialisty kinds of things:  You saw where Bernie Sanders is in trouble because one of his campaign folks penetrated Hillary’s data files?

See: Bernie Sanders campaign accesses Hillary Clinton data, gets suspended from DNC

Data Mess II:  Climate Fraud

You have to read this Daily Caller piece:  “NOAA Relies On ‘Compromised’ Thermometers That Inflate US Warming Trend”

Check this chart from the underlying press release – this is how climate got “baked” –  cite the heat islands and presto!  Global Government comes along…

image

Let me see:  If I can jigger thermometer readings, I can make up any temperature you need, right?  And you see the scientific data on how NOAA adjustments made-up global warming?

Well, of course!~  It’s the OTHER Global Government Plan…

Cryptozoology Notes

You maybe haven’t heard about this yeti:  A report in  Discovery (as in ‘channel’) on how it is possible that a parallel species to humans might have survived the Ice Age and lived parallel to humans for how long?

Such a notion is intriguing because it would explain sightings of the Yeti/abominable snowman.  It would explain the sightings of Sasquatch.

I’m big on “what if’s” and this one is a peach.

What if there actually was a parallel civilization – one we have not be able to find, yet – and it decided to think, long ago, about what these other critters (*us humans) were really up to?

For all we know, Tesla or Maxwell might actually have completed a technology like teleportation, UFO propulsion, or whatever.  Only to have it “removed” from humans as “not ready for it yet…”

Imagine a high culture that didn’t go down the mass-reproduction and industrialization path.  Imagine people who enjoyed what nature has to offer and then sat back and wondered (*without religiosity or testosterone in the driver’s seat) “Gee, is this a useful thing to know?  And does it fit with our be the smartest Yeti?

Fine concept to bounce around along with and a book like…

         

Comments

Bonuses versus Tax Selling versus Dynamics — 46 Comments

  1. George, ask around and see if the woo-woo stuff is happening ‘en mass’, again, will ya? I’m seeing dead celebrities suddenly alive …and vice-a-versa; as well as ‘3:33′ numbers on the clock, including 6:30 suddenly becoming 5:30, or 7:30 becoming 8:30, etc.

    Stuff appearing and disappearing hasn’t happened to me, yet, this month …or even this past year, tho’.

    As well, although more people are beginning to wake up and pay attention – even allowing for the usual holiday craziness, we’re seeing more than the usual amount of silliness and nuttiness, imo. (Part of that is the usual amounts of insanity you see during the collapse of any empire throughout history,) Hmmm…do the cycles of history/the universe bring out the woo-woo stuff…or vice-a-versa? ;)

    • Sis-in-law and Bro-in-law have had the 3:33 on the clock in the middle of the night several times lately. Nothing else of note though. She’s pretty curious about what it could mean, as am I.

  2. I think you are wrong about the outcome of Putin’s endorsement of Trump. I for one and suspect not the only one, respect Putin for being a no nonsense “real” man. He, like Trump, doesn’t kowtow to politcal correctness. Also, Putin’s relationship with the Democratic party has not been all that good. But what would be the difference anyhow. Established Democrats and established Republicans, what’s the difference besides the words they say to the public to get a vote?

    Putin and Trump two birds of the same feather, so to speak. Both know how to work government corruption to their own and their country’s advantage. Well, at least that’s true for Putin. Maybe we will see if Trump can.

  3. About general market levels around petroleum, a thought just occurred: if a tanker or installation happened to become a casualty of conflict it would cost the insurance company less to pay off the loss today than when oil was around 100 – proviso being how they’re covered, not certain about structure.

    • Oh, and does NATO really have warm sand to bask in now ? Never realistically thought to see a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization be posted to Doha. I know, their troops are separate, we put them over there, not here, these guys are different.

  4. I wonder how much the Putin endorsement will help Hillary. I a lot of the people I know have respect for Putin. I don’t know all his policies but he seems to know how the banksters call the shots in the west so I have to respect him for that.

  5. The Empty Pantsuit, the best of two evils is still an evil, you can’t bomb Syria because Russia won”t let you, Obama’s promise of sending advisers to Syria failed, Syria intercepted them and sent them back, Stop thinking like an American, No more Syrian regime change, Russia said so to Obama’s oaf Kerry. And, get this straight, it’s Christmas …

  6. I live in Charlotte Vermont. A large house up the road sold for $660,000. It was put up for sale two years ago at $840,000. A couple from Montreal bought it. Montreal is two hours north of here. Very little is selling in our area. One house has been for sale for 8 years no lookers last year. I am renting part of a property that has been up for sale for 2 years. No offers.

  7. George, I am getting really tired of your Hillary rants which occur with regularity in your posts somewhat equivalent to Fox News and Obama. Your columns used to focus more consistently on economic news but have lately turned into a diatribe on our political system dysfunction. Now I do not love Hillary but it is not like the alternatives are significantly better. None of the GOP frontrunners right now are exactly MENSA candidates and they simply pray on fear to fire up the public. And Bernie is a populist with little to no foreign policy experience. Easy to blame all the ills of the world on Obama yet Congress will not authorize military force in Syria or support any policy initiatives. Don’t like the Iran deal? Offer an alternative. Don’t like his immigration policy? Proposed a “workable” solution. Seems like folks want to have it both ways. All of the candidates are substantially flawed and none of them represent the public. Why not put your money where your mouth is and name who you would like to see get elected and lay out the reasons why.

      • George, I like your rants. I don’t see you being “biased” one side or the other, as the bulk are rats at this point and you do equal justice. My friend and I were just discussing is there anyone left inside the beltway that has enough cajones to do the right thing and turn the rats in.

        Leaning Trump as well for the reason you’ve given above.

      • I’m waiting for a Trump supporter to provide a long list, with references, of proof of Trump’s leadership qualities and capabilities. “Long” as in *at least* 100 examples; more would be even better. After all, we’re talking about someone who wants to be President of the USA. At no point in such a list should there be “reason” that starts, for example, “Well, he’s better than ___” or the entire list is junk as far as I’m concerned. I’d like the same list from any supporter of any other candidate, too.

        Of course, I don’t expect I’ll ever see any such lists :\

      • Trump, rock on George. No one owns him, and he knows how to make business operations work.

        Red Dog

      • Sorry, but 1. he’s a blowhard, and 2. his ego ‘owns’ him and that is a very bad combination.

      • Plus, he earned his wealth by working, unlike the criminals in politics. Not to mention that he had the guts to call out Sandy Hook as a fraud. He’s the only one willing to expose the lies and corruption without caring about his popularity. Remember the birth certificate stance he took against Obama? It IS going to get worse in the US, but it won’t be Trump’s fault. Who else will be tough enough to lead through the mess that’s coming with enough business experience to give the US a prayer of recovery? He’s the only candidate who is actually leading right now, unlike the rest of the suck-up weasels playing politics. He might be the first real president since Kennedy, if they don’t rig the election to be sure he doesn’t get a chance to lead.

      • It is also interesting to compare and contrast the offspring of Trump and Clinton because I do think it gives a measure of leadership. Trump’s daughter manages his hotel holdings and she also has a web site for working women and sells a line of clothing and accessories she designs for professional women. In short, she produces, and in a way that supports others who work. America was built and maintained by people who produced. The Clinton’s daughter married an aristocrat in a gazillion dollar wedding and now gets 60K per speaking engagement. Her forty minutes of blah, blah, blah has no more content than a Hallmark card, because she has lived the life of royalty and produces nothing. People wonder what kind of leader Trump would be. If his daughter is any indication, he would be the kind of leader that got people working and producing.

    • Gary, I blame many of the increasing ills of the US on the current POTUS. He seems to be abetted by TPTB in our Congress. There the seniority system has failed the voting public. Term Limits for members of Congress would go a long way to get a more responsive and maybe less intrusive Congress.
      Yes it has become difficult to differentiate between members of the two political parties. That can be due to the same donors and lobbyists making contributions and demands to both parties campaigns.
      We get the best government that money will buy, election after election
      We elect Politicians at all levels of government. What are needed are Leaders. True Leaders in every aspect.

      {mm}

    • Sorry Gary, but just because you happen to think there’s not another comparable candidate doesn’t add validity to your argument, er rant. To be fair, she is damaged goods by any stretch of the imagination, and we really do need to get off of this “royalty” kick that we seem to have been on, and not just talking about those famous two families that just won’t go away, no matter how hard we try, but the “party royalty” who have managed to take a public service responsibility and turn it into a privately beneficial career. Term limits are important, especially in the Senate, and there has been nowhere near enough turn-around in that particular career field.

      • Oh, and since I’m ranting, George willing, I happen to think that this DNC data breach has a particular odor to it, too clean, too easy, maybe event logs should indeed be reviewed. Not like I’m the only one thinking that, surely.

      • No, Nature Boy, you are not the only one thinking that, I was thinking to myself this morning….oh a conflict just in time for the Democratic debate, how quaint, I mean what a way to drum up controversy out of nothing….just to excite the baseless base, just to get everyone worked up, fired up, and sidelined on a non issue meanwhile all what she who won’t be named has done in the criminality camps goes ignored, dropped, or undiagnosed. SHE used her private server to send and receive TOP SECRET information. She held a HIGH office and she did not obey the law! I guess she knows something the rest of us only suspect, the laws only apply to us citizens, not her, and not the illegals or refugees…just the citizens ma’am.

  8. Unless I am mistaken (a distinct possibility) the major Problem in climate change is CO2 emissions. Eons ago we were taught in science class that trees inhale CO2 and exhale O2, if this is true wouldn’t it make more sense to stop the rain forest destruction and plant lots of trees? People would be far more supportive of this than of being taxed into poverty by TPTB…

    • The simplest version of photosynthesis is that when there is enough light, all vegetation consumes CO2 and exhausts O2. When it is dark enough, the cycle reverses and the plant consumes O2 and exhausts CO2. The rotting vegetation at the roots consume O2 24/7 and exhaust CO2 (among other gases, some of which are sulfur based). Thus in the winter or stormy conditions, especially when there are no leaves on the bushes, most all vegetation is a net consumer of oxygen. Volcanoes on the other hand, and volcanic mountain streams, spew CO2 with total abandon. One volcano burp and all of mankind’s output is comparatively nil.

      Ocean plankton are the best source of oxygen for the planet and it is there one should focus their interest.

      Ignorance is what the usurpers require.

    • You make too much sense! Since humans inhale O2 and exhale CO2 next someone might suggest cutting down (pun not intended) humans and solve more than one problem. ;-)

    • LadyJane, I was in that same science class as you. Even agree with you about trees and rain forest.
      To say that CO2, which makes up only .039% of any volume of our ‘air’, is the major cause of climate change is to ignore the effects of the changing output of Sun. The ‘Maunder Minimum’ comes to mind to illustrate.
      The annual output of CO2 from Earths volcanoes dwarfs by many magnitudes Man’s CO2 output.
      Climate ‘change’ will continue despite mankind.
      Now if one speaks of the ‘quality’ of the air we breathe yes mankind has degraded it. Particulate levels continue to rise with increases world industrialization and population increases. The US offers increased use of Natural Gas to reduce particulate. The same cannot be said of China, India and others.
      So since Mankind shares all of Earths atmosphere stop with the CO2 ‘climate change bogeyman’ and work toward cleaner safer air to breath!!

      {mm}

      • And why is China allowed to open up 100’s of coal fired electricity plants but we are shutting down our coal mines and electrical plants that use coal? Why is the USA being undermined back to is it, 1978, but China and India and other developing nations OUTPUT ON? Anyone can see easily that the USA is being taken down, rung by rung. Even George missed the additional guest worker program to continue to take those jobs that Americans can’t even get a shot at any more, not to mention the billions to continue to ‘haaha repatriate them to towns and cities across the USA’, the refugees and illegals into the system at the citizens expense. The takedown of the society for the citizens is going along at amazing warp speed, soon to be outlawed, common fireplaces, get yours while the getting is good, before you need a permit to operate one!

    • Look up regenerative agriculture or view allen savory’s ted talk on how to extract all the excess co2 out of the atmosphere quickly.

      Stop giving subsidies to big ag as it is creating all kinds of ecological disasters.

  9. australian aboriginal culture is based on reciprocity and the basic element of absolute respect for the living world, created out of the dreamtime. they rejected agriculture (and pretty much everything else, and have managed a good life in the same place for probably 150,000 years, possibly more. they are/were a high culture and some of them will probably survive whatever comes next as well. life with nothing is really life with everything. search for food a few hours a day, play, sing, dance and dream the rest. have fun.
    aloha
    b

  10. Well, much of what you speak of in this part of today’s report, is of the ‘venality’ of humans in general. It takes special effort to not do this kind of nonsense, which unfortunately most people lack as it takes ‘thought’, ‘good will’, ‘effort’, and a wish not to harm other human beings, and other creatures on this planet. Human civilization as a whole, has not been heading in a good direction for some time, and we are ‘reaping what we sow’ . . .

    • Farm land, the only good investment. Get 5 families together, buy 5 acres, get water and electric on it and septic. Then learn how to do the basics, chickens, garden, fertilizer, that’s it. Then sit on it. Camp on it, enjoy it. Put an RV landscape area on it. IF and WHEN the SHTF or the TWAWKIE then those 5 families will be ready. One acre can feed 15 people if done right. Your 5 families will set an example. IF the land goes down in value, you still have a place outside of the city to go to and you can still plant something to eat, etc. PLUS all that fresh air and sunshine will do all of you some good. Oh one more thing, buy a boat, just in case, far reaching case, the OTHER predictions come true, you can pole out of there.

  11. Repeat after me: “We are hopelessly screwed…”

    And who is the screwer? We ought to re-read the Old Testament with attention to who promised whom what. Just a thought; Perhaps it’s the death wish in most of us (voters!). One world and peace will be with us forever. It’s promised ;-)

  12. And I forgot to mention Iran has 90 million barrels of oil already sitting in tankers waiting to go, because they ran out of storage tanks during the embargo.

  13. On the oil prices, keep in mind that on January 1, Iran begins shipping 500,000 barrels a day of their oil which costs them about a buck a barrel to produce. On April 1, they add an additional 500,000 barrels to the market. The oil price is not moving up for a long long time. The world demand for oil will crater even farther, after the oil industry lays off ANOTHER half million people. These are real jobs with benefits that are disappearing here, the kind that have a multiplier effect that creates three additional jobs in the economy. So the total job loss for North America could be as high as three million by next June. Suicide rates in the oil producing provinces of Canada are going thru the roof.

    • Those of us old enough to remember, saw the devastation to Houston and Texas during the low oil prices in the mid 80’s so we know what is coming and the long reaching effects. Yes, so many will say, plug the holes and hold em, but in the meantime, that’s a LOT of people losing their homes, uprooting their families and creating a whole lotta financial and other kinds of stress.

  14. You forgot to mention that Buick will sell a new mid-sized SUV called “Envision”, to be built entirely in China.

    What ever happened to that baseball, apple pie and America thingy? lol

    The only thing I “Envision” in America is K-Y Jelly.

    • We were sold out a long time ago, it is called re-education a global society, business environment, it is supposed to be good for everyone including lowering the USA’s standard of living. You noticed that this new global everything, though, hasn’t stopped people from being shipped here like low-priced goods over land and sea. We have been told we are helping other countries, nope, they are all coming here anyway. The system is so corrupted, all we can do is wait to see how these elite sharks eat each other up on the backs of the world citizens.