We expect the Dow to drop around 150 points at the open this morning.
You can ascribe the problem to any of the following:
- The GOP failure to vote as promised on Obamacare repeal.
- The fact that Labels of Convenience are becoming obvious now (see Coping section for more)
- The fact that the Rest of World – having failed to make new highs – is in a pullback.
- And against this backdrop, the Dow and other indicators may not reach new highs and in the macro picture, could this be the start of a long wave Fifth Wave Failure?
Let’s look at the battlefield more closely.
Japan tanked 1.44% overnight. Worries about crazy Kid Korea?
Hang Seng was down 0.7% – but they still have a billion consumers being groomed.
And in Europe this morning, we see 2/3rds of a percent down in the Brit’s Footsie, 3/4ths percent drop in the DAX in Germany and only a third of a percent down in France.
Looking at the futures, the big news is oil was down 9/10th’s of a percent to the $47.60 area since – as we detailed for Peoplenomics readers this weekend – we’re headed for dual tiered oil pricing.
Gold was up – and that’s really good news. Reason being that when there’s a real crisis in background, gold owners are selling out to meet margin calls elsewhere.
The worst part of this pullback is that it began exactly on March 22 – a date I have been pointing to for well over a year now.
I’m still hopeful this is just a temporary situation and new highs will follow. But as one reader notes: Ure’s technicals and charts are pretty good but his trading is suspect.
Which is why I don’t make a big deal about my personal trades. I’ll be down a few thousand by the time you read this.
The good news is our big picture about weakness in March is certainly becoming a bit too real.
There are a couple of things that could flip the market out of the present stall this week.
One would be a strong Case Shiller/S&P/CoreLogic and whoever else is in the hallway Housing report due tomorrow morning. Yes, two-parter tomorrow.
International Trade in Services is due, as well.
Aft5er that comes GDP Thursday along with corporate profits – and Personal Income and outlays on Friday.
Those include our favorite federal statistical joke: The Personal Savings Rate.
So that’s the early line on things.
Rise of the Democans
I’m a tad disappointed (again) in the Washington Post. While their story “Here’s what the Republicans who just stopped Trump want next” is OK on the surface, it doesn’t dig down into the point of our Coping section article: Labels of Convenience.
Still Lopsided – Hearings and Herrings
We see other evidence of Democans as the NY Times headlines how a “Senate Committee to Question Jared Kushner over Meetings with Russians.”
How the Senate Committee can be so focused on the (labeled) republicans tells us that since no one is looking into anything Clintonistas did – including meeting with Russians, we see the real ploy here is to keep the (misleading) Republican brand intact as they pretend to be a majority party.
Which they are, except everyone has a knife in every else’s back or to their throat.
That’s how the big fish get away.
You can’t do anything useful with a degree in political science anymore. The real degree for understanding of the world is Marketing.
In Other Marketing News
“Trump taps Kushner for lead a SWAT team to fix government with business ideas…” (Again from the WaPo.)
Nancy Pelosi to GOP?
You might not have considered it, but the lefties among her democrats back home are now finding Pelosi too conservative. Which means, if we read it right, that Nancy may want to “adjust her personal brand and label” a bit.
Brother Alexei Fined
There were the Russians this weekend – National demonstrations led by (among others) brother Alexei Navalny.
Navalny announced back ion December he was running against Vlad Putin.
We note the perversion of marketing is extensible in that it’s hard to find a “communist” in Russia these days. And yet….
Social Versus Clubbing
Just the other day, Elaine was bemoaning the lack of the “good old days” when people used to go out for drinks, dinner, and dancing. “Where’d it all go?”
The Olde America.
Today, not just Fort Lauderdale, but now in the Cincinnati shooting this weekend (1 dead, 15 wounded).
In the meantime, however, Social continues to gain popularity – even as reports come out that link Social to isolation.
Result? Higher standard deviations in behavior, near as we can figure it. As face time and one-on-one peer inputs retire to be replaced by virtual swill.
And hour before the open, Dow futures were down 150.
Right in our charts, long Kleenex short-term.