Bigger than a Pause, Smaller than a Crash

We expect the Dow to drop around 150 points at the open this morning.

You can ascribe the problem to any of the following:

  • The GOP failure to vote as promised on Obamacare repeal.
  • The fact that Labels of Convenience are becoming obvious now (see Coping section for more)
  • The fact that the Rest of World – having failed to make new highs – is in a pullback.
  • And against this backdrop, the Dow and other indicators may not reach new highs and in the macro picture, could this be the start of a long wave Fifth Wave Failure?

Let’s look at the battlefield more closely.

Japan tanked 1.44% overnight.  Worries about crazy Kid Korea?

Hang Seng was down 0.7% – but they still have a billion consumers being groomed. 

And in Europe this morning, we see 2/3rds of a percent down in the Brit’s Footsie, 3/4ths percent drop in the DAX in Germany and only a third of a percent down in France.

Looking at the futures, the big news is oil was down 9/10th’s of a percent to the $47.60 area since – as we detailed for Peoplenomics readers this weekend – we’re headed for dual tiered oil pricing.

Gold was up – and that’s really good news.  Reason being that when there’s a real crisis in background, gold owners are selling out to meet margin calls elsewhere.

The worst part of this pullback is that it began exactly on March 22  – a date I have been pointing to for well over a year now.

I’m still hopeful this is just a temporary situation and new highs will follow.  But as one reader notes:  Ure’s technicals and charts are pretty good but his trading is suspect.

Which is why I don’t make a big deal about my personal trades.  I’ll be down a few thousand by the time you read this.

The good news is our big picture about weakness in March is certainly becoming a bit too real. 

There are a couple of things that could flip the market out of the present stall this week.

One would be a strong Case Shiller/S&P/CoreLogic and whoever else is in the hallway Housing report due tomorrow morning.  Yes, two-parter tomorrow.

International Trade in Services is due, as well.

Aft5er that comes GDP Thursday along with corporate profits – and Personal Income and outlays on Friday. 

Those include our favorite federal statistical joke:  The Personal Savings Rate.

So that’s the early line on things.

Rise of the Democans

I’m a tad disappointed (again) in the Washington Post.  While their story “Here’s what the Republicans who just stopped Trump want next” is OK on the surface, it doesn’t dig down into the point of our Coping section article:  Labels of Convenience.

Still Lopsided – Hearings and Herrings

We see other evidence of Democans as the NY Times headlines how a “Senate Committee to Question Jared Kushner over Meetings with Russians.”

How the Senate Committee can be so focused on the (labeled) republicans tells us that since no one is looking into anything Clintonistas did – including meeting with Russians, we see the real ploy here is to keep the (misleading) Republican brand intact as they pretend to be a majority party.

Which they are, except everyone has a knife in every else’s back or to their throat.

That’s how the big fish get away.

You can’t do anything useful with a degree in political science anymore.  The real degree for understanding of the world is Marketing.

In Other Marketing News

“Trump taps Kushner for lead a SWAT team to fix government with business ideas…”  (Again from the WaPo.)

Nancy Pelosi to GOP?

You might not have considered it, but the lefties among her democrats back home are now finding Pelosi too conservative.  Which means, if we read it right, that Nancy may want to “adjust her personal brand and label” a bit.

Brother Alexei Fined

There were the Russians this weekend – National demonstrations led by (among others) brother Alexei Navalny.

His fine for organizing what are essentially anti-Putin demonstrations?  $350.

Navalny announced back ion December he was running against Vlad Putin.

We note the perversion of marketing is extensible in that it’s hard to find a “communist” in Russia these days.  And yet….

Social Versus Clubbing

Just the other day, Elaine was bemoaning the lack of the “good old days” when people used to go out for drinks, dinner, and dancing.  “Where’d it all go?”

The Olde America.

Today, not just Fort Lauderdale, but now in the Cincinnati shooting this weekend (1 dead, 15 wounded). 

In the meantime, however, Social continues to gain popularity – even as reports come out that link Social to isolation.

On point:  “Study: Just 2 hours of Social Media Double Risk of Social Isolation Feelings in Young Adults.”

Result?  Higher standard deviations in behavior, near as we can figure it.  As face time and one-on-one peer inputs retire to be replaced by virtual swill.

Market Downer

And hour before the open, Dow futures were down 150.

Right in our charts,  long Kleenex short-term.


Bigger than a Pause, Smaller than a Crash — 37 Comments

  1. G,
    Your comment board is being bumbarded by idiots, as of late. I couldn’t help by making a dumbass comment either.

    • Ain’t that just great! Why from original research for readers at the beginning of March to someone else “discovering it” (yeah, sure, lol) three weeks later.
      My, everyone’s a rip lately, huh? FMTT

  2. It’s not every day you come across a George ure, so if you do happen to come across one I don’t know what I mean what do you want to do is. subScribe or something pay a dollar a week I mean what’s your problem gosh this guy can tell you all kinds of stuff and he has access to it and he knows how to put it out there and to the public

  3. Here’s a new one for you pick one day out of the week where you don’t post anything but you know maybe a paragraph and it says hey this is your dad you probably switch you want and then you see if you want to make money off this you have to use the right wording to advertise It Anyway heinte more about that

  4. Jon …my curiosity is up again .,are you a POLYDEMIC . Which means you have residence in more than one place but it refers mainly to plants and animals as in your case could you be a () plant at one particular time and yet be an animal in your human behavior in more than one place

  5. I am glad the healthcare act failed. It was a bait and switch approach that really accomplished little. And, I never trusted the “three parts” method as the second and third would never happen.

    Ryan is a slicker operator than I realized. He is obviously a minion of the rulers and does what pleases them. That bill left the insurance players unscathed. I’m glad he got a kick in the crotch on this.

    Check out Sen. Paul’s S222. Four pages anyone can understand and fixes things for the better for everybody except the insurance industry

  6. George. Weird. They all spent 7 years promising to get rid of Obamacare; then when they had all branches of government, failed – embarrassingly, incompetently, like a bunch of Keystone cops. Acted like they not even know what Obamacare did, or how it worked.

    Next up: Tax cuts. (This quote funny: “Republicans set to pivot from cutting taxes for the rich (AHCA) to cutting taxes for the rich (tax reform).”)

    Ryan’s new plan: Initially the upper 1% get 75% of the tax cuts, ending at over 99% to them. And put it all on the National Debt.

    So, am looking everywhere for the case as to how this is helping our rural, blue collar and Rustbelt folks.

    Please send it along, along with that data that any tax cuts lead to a dollar for dollar increase in tax revenue.

    My personal fear: This same old conservative economic policy will save me $2000 in taxes but cost me $2 million in net worth. Mike.

  7. The hubbub around the recent U.S. healthcare abortion led to an almost cultic celebration of the first significant ‘Trump defeat.’ Trump opposition at home and abroad were offered renewed hope by the apparent chink in the president’s armor, believing it will ultimately lead to an ever increasing avalanche of policy defeats. The cultic celebration may not have been all that coincidental. Recall how, during the last full moon, wiccans and warlocks across the globe cast a collective spell on the Donald? Well . . . they’re baaack, doing it all again for the ‘egg moon’ on April 11th.