At Last: Rally for Good?

imageTwo-hundred points up, straight ahead.

The big driver this morning could be damn near anything you want it to be:

Oil is back up to almost $31-bucks.

German and Kneeler markets are clawing toward 2 1/2% gains and the French CAC-40 was up almost 3 1/2%.

Even more promising was Asia:  Japan screamed ahead almost 6% (!!!) and the Hang Seng was up almost 3%..  Even the Shanghai market put on some beans.

The major problems have been pushed out to next week, or the week after.  If we rally back to our long term trend line levels, that have been developing since the bottom of the Housing Collapse in 2009, there will be a critical path choice made.

If the market can power-through the overhead trend line (and stay there) then we will take our long-awaited 5th massive wave to the upside as arriving.

But, if the market only rallies to the trend line, and then turns down again…well, we call that a “kiss of death” and the only place to be in that case is hiding under the bed because it will mean seven-years of recovery is toast.

Off in the background, two major pieces are moving around.

For one, there’s the presidential politics.  It’s hard to get excited about an election where the choice could be something as far-fetched as Yet Another Bush against Yet Another Clinton, yet there’s enough “thumbs on the scales” trying to hold to the Old Way in Washington (the seat of the Checkbook Republic) that it could happen.

Still, we won’t get pessimistic about “the fix being in” until we see if the FBI Director still has a job after the Hil investigation is done, and whether the Traitorcans will broker the GOP convention to an insider.

The rally I’m expecting really hinges in many ways on this notion of legitimate change.

One of my daughters called last night to proudly say she was pleased that Bernie Sanders is coming on strong.  But dear-old-dad reminded her that he’s been around Washington a long while – long enough to be part of the problem, as I see it.  Still, she’s hoping and planning on a Sanders sticker.  I went to be praying that it wouldn’t be a Sanders-Clinton ticket…

Still, based on pole data, that could be Trumped with Cruz, but there is too much potential for real change for that to ever occur.  The repeating nightmare was that Washington would embrace a socialist in lieu of even more remote outsiders.

Things are nevertheless entertaining.  The WaPo story about the Trumpster and National Review going at it is good.  And there’s a good bit of waffle/position drift apparent as we catch the daily Limburger.  Seems it’s the conservation “I’m holier than thou” contest.

The other Big Screen event to watch, and it could overshadow the farcical politics   would be a War Distraction.  A note from our defense expert warhammer explains:

Israel Warms to Sunni Powers…

Happy Friday, George!

As Winter Storm Jonas finishes its assault in the southern U.S. and churns up toward the northeastern seaboard, some surprising news is swirling out of the Middle East indicating Israel is cozying up to several Sunni Islam states in response to Iranian sanctions being lifted:

<http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/01/21/israel-warms-to-sunni-powers-questions-us-palestinian-focus.html?intcmp=hpbt1>

Such news may be surprising to some, but not to those who’ve tracked the Jewish state’s recent open dialog with rational Muslim rulers. As the Arab saying goes, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend!” Iran is everyone but Syria and Russia’s enemy. For the past 4-5 years ‘ears to the ground’ Intel has revealed the existence of open channels between members of the Saudi royalty and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet. Solid rumors even mention preliminary military cooperation plans in the event of overt Iranian aggression in the region.

Out of the darkness appears a ray of light. A Sunni/Jewish alliance, loose as it may be, could lead to something far more promising, much like how modern democracy and formerly fascist Germany fully and peacefully integrated into European military and financial affairs. This same Germany, which during WWII practiced Jewish genocide as state policy, now also routinely provides military and economic aid to Israel. Is such an alliance possible, even imminent between the Saudis and Israel?

Optimism aside, there is danger ahead on the hazardous road to peace. An alliance between the House of Saud and the House of David acts much like a weather barometer indicating a calm before the approaching winter storm. The extremist Iranian religious and military elites believe, as Hitler and his SS lapdogs did, that prophecy and destiny are on their side as they pursue regional dominance. It is not a matter of if, but when Iran strikes out to smite their Jewish nemesis. The strange, budding alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel is as much one of deterrence as it is a strong signal for an inevitable conflict, very possibly armed conflict, with the Shi’ite Persian state.

There’s a storm a comin’, and it’s not just Winter Storm Jonas. But as with blizzards, one should be well prepared for what will almost certainly follow these surprising Middle East indicators.

Cheers,

And that may be, in part, why the markets are up.  Oil is up, copper is up, and it could be there will be some kind of change of sea-state in the global expectation set that will give rise to some optimism which I keep looking at as ending in 2017.

The stock market correction/decline might be over, but it’s still too early to tell.  False Springs are not uncommon in nature, politics, and human affairs.

This weekend, Peoplenomics will feature an “Analysis of the Threat Board.” 

Is “Jonas” a Whale?

We don’t know for sure – and won’t until we get through the weekend and compare the snowfall levels with the 10-worst storms in East Coast history.

We have to sit back in amazement at the reports of people ransacking stores in order to get last minute supplies.

Have people been living under rocks and completely missed the prepping movement, or what?

Or, are people generally a lot dumber than we give them credit for?

Normally, I’d go into a long harangue about all the hype and BS the MSM is going through.  But this has the feel of something really big when I look at the maps with my “junior forecaster” badge on the line.

This one might make it into “the books.”

On the other hand, from essentially zero entries back when Google started up years back, to present day, we notice the word frequency for “snowmageddon is now over half a million uses.   It is perhaps more tasteful than “shitstorm” which has 2.88 million hits, making it the much more common storm descriptor.

Another Day, Another Fed (jr.) Report

This one from Chicago: ChiFed National Activity Index (*CFNAI):

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to –0.22 in December from –0.36 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from November, but three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in December.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.24 in December from –0.19 in November. December’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the
coming year.”

Reading reports like this one bring on a sudden urge to create new words.  “Disconclusive” seems to be missing from the language and we really ought to fix that.

I did mention Dow +200 on the futures and oil over $31, right?  Off to work on a longish Peoplenomics report…have a fine weekend.  We expect another flurry of words Monday.  Enjoy the Global Warming.

Comments

At Last: Rally for Good? — 25 Comments

  1. Yes George, people are dumber than you CAN imagine!

    I have a good friend in New Jersey. I insisted that she buy a gas can for a spare few gallons of gas during hurricane Sandy, and she reluctantly bought one. She was easily able to buy gas where she worked, but it was being rationed where she lived. The can was helpful for the duration, and then she wanted to get rid of it, all the while griping about how much it cost. BTW, she has zero canned goods and eats out nearly every meal, yet she’s a good cook and loves cooking! She just doesn’t like clutter.

    She also has no money. Regardless, she’s a wonderful friend and decent person. Just dumb beyond belief!

  2. Hi Geeorge!
    Thot i’d ask about what happened to the Shemata? Trillions have been lost already in 2016. Everyone’s reaction: hoo hum!
    Now there is a bill being FAST TRACKED threw the senate to GIVE THE [redact] IN THE WHITEHOUSE UNLIMITED WAR POWERS. WTF!

    • Ho hum b ecause we stopped on the long term trend line, only a weaker close next Friday would negate this., You’d know this if yuou follow2d Peoplenomics ( :-))
      As to the War Powers…how else you gonna bump the economy for one last bubble? Now that the terror plot in UK was busted this weekend…tisk tisk.

  3. Iran is everyone but Syrian and Russias enemy? Rational muslims rulers are Saudi Arabia?! Wtf?

  4. “Or, are people generally a lot dumber than we give them credit for?”

    Yes. After seeing just how dumbed down school has become. The expectations from my own children’s grade school are abysmally poor. I do supplemntation work so they can excel in STEM as they should be doing.

    So, yes, G. They are.

    • I blame it on the iPad & iPhone & (anti-)social media + games consoles. They suck up 99.99% of the youngster’s time, study is relegated as boring and uninteresting. Finding a kid reading a book on Physics is as rare as finding rocking horse sh*t.

  5. George,
    Please don’t legitimize the Weather channel’s use of named winter storms by using them in your column! Its all part of the “Climate Change’ agenda!

    • This storm is very similar to the storms we experienced in the 60’s back on Long Island, and in Huntington, NY, it was just normal winter weather, and we all coped and got out in it and had fun.

  6. George, even my now rare visits to your formerly insightful website are enough to convince me that your resident ‘Minder’ Warhammer is still large and in charge at your site, still spewing his ‘war is always the answer’ and pro-Israeli blather. Carry on!

    • George does have a blind spot wrt Warhammer’s proclamations. It’s one thing to seek the input of credentialed experts. It’s quite another to accept those proclamations without question…especially after the expert’s proclamations prove to be incorrect, time after time after time…

      We all have blind spots. Warhammer appears to be one of George’s blind spots. (‘Oilman’ appears to be another.)

      • George takes the longer view on things… on WH look up owning the weather 2025 which WH was on, or latest proven resevers from http://www.eia.gov – which is where OM2 is coming from. Displacements in the short term don’t negate the longer sweep of history

  7. Democracy means military government. Don’t believe me? Check out every court room in the country. They all have the flag with the eagle on top and the gold fringe around. This is a military ceremonial flag.
    Have a nice day.

  8. If anyone were paying attention, we would already be distracted by war. Your friend, warhammer, is a shill for Israel. But, given the power of the Israeli lobby in DC, I suppose the fix is in anyway. I’m just surprised you give him so much press in your columns.

    And imagining that a Trump presidency, other than for entertainment value, would actually change anything for the better, is really beneath your intelligence quotient. Maybe you’ve spent too much time in the east Texas outback? (Anyway, seems that Hil has already been (s)elected. Wanna bet?)

    Then again, you could just be covering your ass, and making a living, no better or worse than the rest of us. (With the small caveat that your words do influence others. And, as oilman2 commented, people really are a lot dumber than you imagine, having completely lost the concept of independent inquiry.)

  9. Your friend Warhammer is wrong. Remind me again, who was it that attacked NYC?

    Shiites from Iran?

    Or Sunnis from KSA?

  10. let me help you: people are a lot dumber than we give them credit for.

    Just go to an urban walmart and sit and watch a while.

  11. A couple of thoughts about the empty shelves:

    First, it’s an opportunity for the retailer to give the display fixture a thorough cleaning, before restocking, and Second – makes me wonder exactly how ‘full’ the shelves were to begin with . . . some of those pictures on that site look like the ‘Horde’ came charging through. Did they call the police?

  12. Definitions matter. Choosing to leave out “democratic” from Bernie’s self-description explains why you can’t understand your daughter’s enthusiasm. Yes, you are using the attack the establishment will use, so you’re safe on that front. Bernie does not advocate public ownership of the means of production, so the single-word description “socialist” just doesn’t cut it.

    Trump and Cruz are NOT outsiders if you look at their policy proposals. In fact, they are backing policies you have railed against for years. (Expand H1-B’s, give even more incentive to replace humans with robots, give the free pass to the HFT leeches on the markets, lower tax rates to zero on capital and shift more burden to workers, shall I go on?)….

  13. It’s NOT that “the fix being in” but that people are just too stupid for democracy. I can see it in my own family!

    • Lol couldn’t agree more, for I have a son-in-law (not that he’s a bad guy)but he’s dumber than a box of rocks, he too states that Bernie is a bad socialist, why you have to put the money in the hands of the 1%, for they will put it work for the people, and when I point out that they haven’t done a damn thing for the people, he says its all the socialist fault and he has the so call higher education.!!!!

  14. I can assure you, as a part-time resident here in suburban Houston, that generally people are actually a LOT dumber than you imagine. I have neighbors that do not own a plunger or mower or hand tools. Others eat out every meal and run by the grocery to purchase pre-made meals for guests – no pantry stock at all.

    These generations of prosperity built on cheap oil have changed peoples expectations into something disconnected from reality. Hurricanes Ike, Rita and Katrina provided a glimpse of what is coming.