As Predicted Last Week, Market to Open Down Tuesday

Our Peoplenomics.com subscribers have to be delirious about the accuracy of our work.  Did I, or did I not tell ya’ll last week that the market should put in a short-term low today?

Earlier, it was looking like the Dow would open down 20, but I reckon it will drop even more later on.  Then (as least statistically) we have a 12:5 chance of a rally into the Fed announcement on the 15th.

Yeah, I know if you don’t invest, you’d like me to stick to gross end of the world predictions and doom porn.  But the best arbiter of whose future forecasting is really worth something is how a real-life trading account does.

Oh, sure, old-line predictors can get uppity about how futuring shouldn’t be connected with money.  But maybe because money made on a prediction is so tough to BS your way through…it’s something to think ab out, though.

Trade Data

Our press release du jour:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $48.5 billion in January, up $4.2 billion from $44.3 billion in December, revised. January exports were $192.1 billion, $1.1 billion more than December exports. January imports were $240.6 billion, $5.3 billion more than December imports.

The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $4.0 billion to $69.7 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $21.2 billion.

Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit increased $5.1 billion, or 11.8 percent, from January 2016. Exports increased $13.3 billion or 7.4 percent. Imports increased $18.4 billion or 8.3 percent.

If you like charts:

This afternoon, the Feral Reserve (sic) will announce the Consumer Debt numbers which could pop the market this-a-way or that-a-way.  This report is paraded as the “Consumer Credit Report” but that’s because the Banksters are the creditors.

This is really the “How many people got sucked into putting on a further Yoke of Debt this past month Report.”

Broke America

With reports running around that half of Americans can’t write and cover a $500 check for emergencies, we found the BankRate.com story over here pretty interesting: “Just 4 in 10 Americans have savings they’d rely on in an emergency…

We note that BankRate.com doesn’t track the special rates available from the National Bank of Dad.

Earth’s Dying Sun

Hey, there’s a positive, upbeat story for you: Solar Cycle Progression as measured by sunspots counts from NASA:

As you can see, with the sunspots down, it means solar output is down and so while the climate is changing it could be the modern analog to the Maunder Minimum.  We will find out in time.

Replacing Obamacare

Change something – even if it’s wrong!  That’s what the GOP seems to be doing on Obamacare reform.  CNBC’s Op-Ed: The GOP health bill doesn’t know what problem it’s trying to solve is worth a read.

Death by Pokemon?

Can’t make this one up:  Man suffers fatal heart attack after catching rare ‘Pokemon Go’ creature.

Hungary for Truth

Ah…someone is saying it out loud:  “Hungary PM: Migration is ‘Trojan wooden horse’ of terrorism.”

Political Data In Depth

Interesting press release here:

NEW YORK, March 6, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — Convergex, an agency-focused global brokerage and trading related services provider, released the results of its “Take Your Trump-erature” survey, designed to gauge President Trump’s possible impact on the financial markets. The survey, which was conducted from February 21, 2017 through February 24, 2017, garnered a record number of responses with some surprising results.

According to the survey findings, 74% of financial industry participants have a positive outlook on the financial markets, even though only 40% of the respondents approve of the job President Trump is doing thus far. However, only 20% of the respondents expect the market volatility (as measured by the CBOE VIX index) to increase more than 25% over the next 4 years, revealing an ongoing complacency about possible dramatic market fluctuations.

“We were surprised at some of the survey findings regarding Wall Street’s sentiments of the financial markets while under President Trump’s watch,” said Eric W. Noll, Covergex CEO and President. “It is clear from the results that most of the respondents feel President Trump will have a positive impact on the near-term prospects of the financial market, even if they don’t necessarily agree with his overall vision for the country.”

Below is an overview of the key survey findings:

  • While only 40% of survey participants give their approval of “Trump the President,” almost 74% give him high marks (grade A or B) for his effect on the investment climate for stocks. Moreover, over 57% expect stocks to do better over the next 4 years under a Trump Presidency than if Clinton had won the Presidency (21%).
  • Changing tax policy is the most important aspect of Trumponomics to equity markets, according to 54% of respondents. Deregulation came in 2nd (25%) and Infrastructure spending came in 3rd (16%).
  • Survey respondents think the equity markets want to see lower corporate taxes (46% ranked this “most important”) and lower repatriation rates (29% said that was “most important”) far more than lower individual/personal taxes (only 19% said that was “most important” to US equities) or the adoption of border taxes (4%).
  • Q4 2017 was the most common expected timeframe (28% of the responses) as to when new tax legislation would pass. Q3 2017 was second, with 23% of respondents.
  • Favorite Trump Trade sectors: 92% of respondents said Trump policies will help Financials the most, followed by Energy (89%) and Industrials (84%). Least favored: Healthcare (29%) and Consumer Staples (46%).
  • Active over passive: 63% of respondents say the Trump administration will be better for active management rather than passive management (16%).
  • Financial industry biggest worries: Congress not passing legislation (31%) and trade/currency war (32%). Respondents were least concerned about company-specific tweets (4%) and Trump’s Immigration policy (5%).

Full survey results are available here:

War in the Wings

North Korea is missile rattling again.

Hey, I figured it out:  Maybe they’re trying to talk the South into submission.

Comments

As Predicted Last Week, Market to Open Down Tuesday — 6 Comments

  1. zzz George,
    Is the cleansing of all our webware the new employment jump? i.e. 1920s horses to tractor engine. FTM

  2. “Change something – even if it’s wrong! That’s what the GOP seems to be doing on Obamacare reform. CNBC’s Op-Ed: The GOP health bill doesn’t know what problem it’s trying to solve is worth a read.”

    Tax Credits… healthcare spending accounts.. blah blah blah…to fix it is simple the bad part of that is it won’t benefit the wealthy or the insurance companies.. is 1 Make it illegal to discriminate over age illness anyone wanting to buy plan A can
    2. No price gouging.. if you want to buy plan A then you pay the same price as everyone else.. No discounts if it costs more to keep it solvent then everyone pays the same price..
    3. Open the Borders on Insurance and pharmaceuticals.. Most larger companies keep their headquarters outside the USA so they don’t have to pay a tax.. ok.. so if Lloyds of London wants to sell a health insurance policy in the usa.. then they should be able to compete.. if a company in Texas wants to sell a policy in New york they should be able to compete ( a friend of mine said to me you should get the policy I have.. only it isn’t available here).. the same way with medications.. I had a medication I was taking.. the cost at a local pharmacy was 1250.00 a month.. I could go over to another pharmacy in our town called the Canadian pharmacy and they would fax your prescription to Canada where it would be filled.. the price difference.. 250.00 a thousand dollars difference.. well our congress fixed that and made it illegal to buy medications from outside the usa and the pharmacy had to close its doors.. why is it that american citizens have to pay a thousand dollars more.. and if I had been in canada where they make them sell generic the generic was 75.00.. an antibiotic the daughter was taking was 300.00 for a ten day supply.. we got it from that same pharmacy for 10.00… (Oh might I add that is with over night shipping at the time..) You might wonder why during the winter months there is a huge drive of older people to southern texas.. that is because what they save on their years medications by buying them over the border pays for the whole trip down there to live..
    ( this is a pet peave of mine.)
    they say it is to reimburse the research money.. well then that should be spread around the globe not just piled on the citizens of america.

    Tax cuts.. I don’t know how anyone in their right mind can expect to see tax cuts.. at all.. the interest on what we have borrowed alone last year was over half a trillion.. this year even at one percent.. I think it is higher than that.. your looking at a substantial increase in interest alone.. consider what we are spending the national budget has to go even higher..
    well I am done ranting.
    the medical insurance is an easy fix the big issue is that no one making millions a year will benefit from it.. it would go back to the way it was in the late sixties and seventies and early eighties.. when everyone had insurance all companies gave all employees insurance and low cost family insurance was available..

  3. Heard from yet another wife of someone deployed that something about to go down over there. Watch oil.

  4. Good Morning

    -Continuing on my post/questions from yesterdays topic of “bugging” Trumps comms, we come to todays story of what we all know is already going on. https://wikileaks.org/ciav7p1/ Pretty interesting read.
    I can only wonder when the computers will attack, in force. I mean it seems pretty clear the internet is not safe for anything, well anything that needs to be secure. Its only a matter of when our enemies or even our country attacks.

    In what situations could the world or the US (which would take the world with it) economies collapse and not be blamed on our governments. They would want to still maintain their powers on the other side of it, if possible.

    I’ve been into btc and the blockchain for a while now. I was reading an article on quantum computers, that we have them and they have the ability to break the blockchain, but wouldn’t. Hold on lemme laugh at that a second.

    On the illegals coming in and being kicked out. It seems we maybe putting the carriage before the horse. If we kick them out, won’t they just come back? We need a wall first, what ever that wall may be. Maybe we just wanna lockem up in the privatized prisons with the pot smokers as a business plan. More prisons = more jobs?

    Thanks in advance for helping me to understand more.

    -Just a HVAC guy

  5. What do you see as the amount of increase in the DOW into March 15th ?