As I Was Saying…Markets to Drift Lower, Social Mediots

With the Federal Reserve rolling in M1 (which is being puffed up at a nearly 12% annual rate presently) it seems odd that I would tell you in the May 6 column that “Markets to Drift Lower.”

Yet, on May 6th, the S&P 500 closed at 2,057 and change. Yesterday’s close was at 2,047 and change. Pretty much exactly what we’ve been telling our Peoplenomics.com subscribers to be on the look-out for.

There is a lot of good news, however, once we drift down more (perhaps 2,020 on the S&P but I’m thinking 2,000’ish): The market should begin a marvelous summer rally that may go to late August or even spill into mid September. We shall see as the waves and headlines roll out.

Globally, markets are nervous about the first week in June – because that’s when the ECB will meet on rates. About 10-days later, the Fed will meet.

As much as there’s a solid case to begin raising rates, the central banks are not really economic leaders. They are more like the co-dependents and enablers of economic insanity.

I say that somewhat tongue-in cheek. If it was really insanity, it would be more random and we wouldn’t be able to make reasonable market calls.

Yet for some reason, people don’t invest much in the market at a personal level.

A former colleague used to jeer at my emphasis in future forecasting for economic purposes as a total cop-out. His view was that I was throwing in with the Devil himself.

Yet there is a reason to test future forecasting on markets. The main one is that you can’t BS your way through a trade. The trade either makes money, or it doesn’t. Thus, throwing in with the Devil or not, the results of future forecasting are clear enough on the bottom line.

What’s the old saying? Cash talks, BS walks, isn’t it?

Thanks to a number of clever forecasting tools, we have been steadfastly confident in the current (and continuing) market rally for more than six months.

The tool set isn’t hard to learn: The only proprietary component is the Nostracodeus software program, yet that’s not the basis of our outlook.

Where it comes from is a synthesis of Long Wave Economics, which says yes, despite the Kool-Aid of the Quants, there’s more to life than math equations. Then we toss in a hefty dose of our own channel work, and I’ve learned a huge amount from following the work of my friend Robin Landry.

Where I get perplexed is in trying to understand how people spend their time and why.

I’m a pretty simple guy: When I work, I do so with one over-arching goal in mind: To make money at the most efficient rate.

When I play? Oh, my, do I have the toys…but I’m thinning that collection down.

Still, it’s reasonable to think of me as a binary-state human: Making money and when not doing that, on the other side of the flip-flop I’m trying to get as much pleasure out of my money as possible.

Seems pretty damn simple, doesn’t it?

Yet we live in a country where people have come down with “social disease” and it’s one of the most confounding phenomena – ever.

What we do is take computers and convince people to reveal intimate secrets about themselves to the government, the police, HR departments, ex-lovers, and anyone else who wanders along.

And we do it for no money!

I sit back at times in shock and amazement. In comparison, the famous antics of Charles Ponzi (of Ponzi scheme fame) pales in comparison.

Ponzi, you have to understand, like Madoff, only ripped off people’s MONEY.

Social media rips off people’s TIME.

The least you could do would be watch TED Talks. instead/

Maybe right now, you’re young enough that Money seems more important. But have way into year 67, I can assure you the flip into my camp will come and TIME will matter more than anything.

There are several other things the crooked “social media” scam have wrought.

Here, go read this story which beats up on CBS for having male stars in some of its upcoming shows…and then click back here.

CBS slammed for lack of diversity

(Back already?)

You see where this is coming from? “#CBSSoWhite.”

Back in my reporting days, this would never have rated so much as a mention. When a reporter or headline writer uses a term like “Slammed” it somehow gives a sense of authenticity. Yet, the reality is ANYONE with a computer can wade into the pending SOCIAL ANARCHY and toss linguistic Molotovs all over the Internet.

And I would suggest that’s exactly what’s going on right now before our very eyes.

You see, AMREV2 – the “second American Revolution” – that some “futurists” have been predicting, is nothing more than a natural outgrowth of social media – which has become the social mob.

Of course, when you have a mob, someone will choose to incite and that’s where any number of stories may be traced back to.

I don’t care if you’re talking restroom idiocy, not enough gays, bi’s, or tri’s, or which way will Jenner flop…forensics of news point to Social Media as the prime purveyor.

And its here that the anarchists are having a field day. People don’t realize they are being HAD.

Why? Because the anarchists are able to make effective use of media manipulation tricks…and then it hits CNN as a hashtag, more traffic comes, and suddenly CBS is looking like the r-word.

Yet there is more too this: “CBS says shows are ‘more diverse’ despite criticism.”

About here, you can see what’s really going on, if you understand how data works.

It could be that the hashtag may trace back to a single disenfranchised actor, a disgruntled former employee, or whatever. Yet, it has become a “story.”

But is it?

We faced a similar problem – though a different scale – when in the 1960’s and 70’s we would routinely receive bomb threats.

The motivation of the anarchists of those times was anti-war, but also an even greater measure of self-satisfaction and perverse ego agrandizement by being able to empty out any business you care to name.

So a bunch of us level-headed people in the news business decided we would not report things like “City Light has just be evacuated because of a telephoned bomb threat…”

Instead, news policy was adjusted to meet the social need for stability. The new policy was that sure, we would report the bomb threat – after a bomb had been found, or after it had gone off. No empty-headed blowhards, thank you. And it worked – and still works till this day.

Yet the same adult approach to news is not applied to social media.

As a consequence, what may be one or two people can leverage the media into outrageous levels of hype.

Even more amazing, is that corporations don’t get it. The head-long insanity of this social media disease was something we covered in Peoplenomics a year or two back.

Essentially, I asked: “How stupid is a business that it would farm out its customers to a third party (the social mafia) where their own customers would be held hostage?

No, they can’t be that stupid, right? But go find any company with a lot of follows and you’ll find the socialists (to bend the meaning a bit) ready to hold up the businesses for access to their own freaking customers.

Hard to imagine, ain’t it?

But the way it works is the long-chain business model.

It was all free – AT FIRST.

Once all the hostages of the corporatings were facing and twitting, then along come the ads, the access charges…but not until the social outlets had grown so large as to be TBTF – Too Big To Fight.

I didn’t mean to get up on the soap box this early. And yes, social media is a great “audience builder” for companies and bloggers alike. But we don’t pay for social and we maintain our own comments section at UrbanSurvival because frankly, we can see through the mental fog that has rolled in across America.

Social Media may sound good, but when you look at the other things you could be doing with your time (like having a real life and interacting with people who are present in the same room as you are) social fades into one of the largest WTF’s out there.

But go ahead, twit or face something about Ure’s truly. We’ll skip the fracas and focus on the one thing we can turn into the things we desire: Large amounts of after-tax cash.

Anything else is mental masturbation and America has started to go blind from that.

No, make that is already vision impaired.

Write this down somewhere you can refer to in the future: Political Correctness Disease arises from media reporting social bomb threats.

We now return you to the real world – the one where love and money and personal relations count.

Side Bet on Terror

The reported crash of an EgyptAir flight with 66 aboard may have been a terrorism effort.

As a former airline VP, I can tell you that cabin pressure altitude armed devices were one of the things I worried about. Take off, climb to altitude, cabin pressure decreases to 5,000-6,000 feet, and when the descent starts, boom.

Just a side bet, we will know more later.

Trump’ed

Not unexpected around here. Hillary Clinton is down 5 from leader Donald Trump.

Roll Me a Distraction Dept.

How about this one: Beijing Denies Dangerous Interception of US Spy Plane Over South China Sea.

When the other cards begin to fail, the Washington establishment will play the “War Card.” Just a matter of when…

Data Points: Philly Fed

Just out:

“Firms responding to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey continued to report tenuous growth this month. The indicator for general activity was essentially unchanged in May and remained slightly negative. Other broad indicators also reflected general weakness in business conditions. The indicator for employment improved but remained negative. Manufacturers’ forecasts of future activity tempered slightly from last month, overall, but continue to suggest confidence in future growth.”

So, the Fed stomp on the gas hasn’t kicked in yet…

Markets sense this maybe with the futures down 40 something. But we have options hankypank today and tomorrow. Next week will be more meaningful..though I do expect to drift lower yet.

Once you weed out the political hype, and the social madness, it’s a fine morning to go back to bed for a snooze.

Gosh, what a salesman I am…I just sold myself on a brilliant idea…

Comments

As I Was Saying…Markets to Drift Lower, Social Mediots — 15 Comments

  1. It was only a wee bit of a ‘dis’ on those of us who express our views in these comment sections. But it was a ‘dis’ nonetheless. I have to observe though George, your blog makes you a bigger social media whore than most of the rest of us. Or, was that totally lost on you?

  2. Hi George,

    I absolutely agree that you need to keep your comments/discussion in your own universe rather than losing it to a “social” paradigm. Diqus(ting), or however it’s spelled is nothing more than a data aggregator, and I won’t even read comments from that entity. I have no facebook account so I don’t read or write to that thing either.

    On money: Yes, it’s useful as a fungible store of wealth, but if you’re doing your own work, it’s best to concentrate on direct translation from work to the value you choose to create. Sometimes it’s more efficient with money as a medium, but often it’s better to DIY. Think of the hands out along the way.

    I’ve never been able to translate money into relationship, contrary to common belief. I only wish I could.

  3. Ecuador Expat:

    Yup, would agree. Baked in the Cake so to speak. What was it, SenJMcCain disclosing in 2007 or something that about 11% of naval weapons chips were made by the folks behind the big Wall?!

    Wasn’t it that nasty boy/soldier’s-soldier ColDHHackworth that said that there is no way to win 4GW?

  4. Back on track. Older brother was commenting that he is astounded in that the vast majority of his friends “go out” and essentially sit there and text. Male or female. Very little “human” interaction. The Kid says that most of his friends have lousy/boring/dysfunctional relationships with girl/boy friends or wives/husbands mainly due to the fact that his generation is a mess. Spending way too much time on electronic media. Sure, the kid has a tablet and a smart phone, however… And when they “talk” he says he is so tired of their idiotic dribble about totally meaningless s*%^ he has taken to either staying at home or just flat out telling them they are morons.

    I have told both he and his sister that cut a “few years” off of Daddy’s time frame and he could nab almost anything out there between the ages of 25 – 40! No questions asked. Why? Because the old man can sit down and…communicate with a female and treat her like a…lady! Well, OK. I will not post the comments my wife makes in this regard ? I have managed to survive almost 30 years of being married to a Cajun. Anyway, the boss/wife says…”Do your friends bring flowers to the girl? Do you take her to cool places and anything romantic?” She also complains that the younger generation does everything in a group! No individualism. We are astounded at the number of times that a married set of friends of the son will text him and ask him to go to dinner etc with them. No hanky panky goes on. Just that everything these darn kids do now days is in a group!

    I do have a buddy who runs a restaurant in our small town and he says he has caught his high school kids texting porn to each other! What the hell has happened to these kids?

    I recall George Ure’s comment about the 4 dudes at the same lunch who only texted! Me? When I find out that one of my wacky sister-in-laws or their dysfunctional kids has posted a hilarious something or another on Facebook…I have to ask the wife or the son how to get to Facebook!

    The Kid has started to order…books. Actual books. I know GUre likes his kindle. But the kid now has items all the way from Sun Tzu , Hemingway, Zane Grey, Mark Twain, JRR Tolkien, as well as others. Says he is going to focus on the “classics”. He has taken up drawing and puzzles too! Thank God! The kid will go trapping, yes…like fur trapping in winter on the river, he actually black powder shoots with an old percussion gun as well as bow hunts, boating, fishing etc.

    The kid gets it. Guess mom and dad have at least hatched a couple of decent ones.

    • Nice on the book interest. I was always fascinated by those pages between the covers, I could learn anything and go everywhere.

      Please introduce him to vinyl as well, if he isn’t already there.

  5. George, when you force me to watch a 30 second ad before I can read my daily dose of urbansanity.com then I will find a new business model to follow.

  6. When Washington decides to play the war card, understand that the USA is going to lose. The Air Force is quaking in its boots at the efficiency of the Russian Space Command, and the Navy has no defense against being “Cooked.” The army has no way of getting to the battlefield unless it is on USA soil.

    As someone from outside the USA said, “having lost the war, the USA will start fighting. Having won the war, the Chinese will begin fighting only to deplete the enemy so that the enemy volunteers to surrender.

    • do you think that nuclear winter rain won’t reach Ecuador? Chew more coca leaves and pretend you can cure radioactive rain when SHTF. Also, define your obscure terminology: 4GW means what?

      Other readers observe blog etiquette, please follow that example. Go for brevity, not nattering us to death with your superiority complex and or coca problem.

      • Actually, in the event of nuclear winter, those in the southern hemisphere would almost certainly fare much better – as would those in lower latitudes in general. Because of the coriolis effect and such, the air from the northern & southern hemispheres doesn’t mix much at all. Since most all nuclear nations are in the northern hemisphere and nukes would potentially detonate towards the “top side” of the planet, those in the southern hemisphere could go on relatively unscathed while the rest of us suffer. The radioactive rain you’re referring to probably wouldn’t fall on the southern hemisphere.

  7. Well George social media is little different than what we have always had, as Thomas Merton once wrote and it is still as valid today as in 1963 when he wrote it “In actual fact it would seem that during the Cold War,if not during World War 11,this country has become frankly a warfare state built on affluence,a power structure in which the interest of big business,the obsessions of the military,and the phobias of political extremists both dominate and dictate our national policy.It also seems that the people of the country are by and large reduced to passivity,confusion,thoughtlessness and ignorance,so that they blindly follow any line that is unraveled for them by the mass media.”and I suppose so called social media is one of them.!!

    • I’ll 4th that, I had a computer call me and he asked for me, ‘was “I” there?.’ I just answered No. No. No. It got confused and hung up. It sounds just like a person, but it is a recording, more sophisticated that the, ‘this is Heather’ recordings of years past. So, they now tie your phone number with your name and the computer dials, and talks, with a delay to hear you answer the phone and say, yes, that is you, ain’t that sweet?

  8. Whenever I tell people social media is a waste of time, and that I’m not on Facebook, a strange bewildered “that does not compute”expression appears on their faces. It’s a sickness, it really is.

    • I use to get that same “does not compute” expression in my earlier days, when I told someone visiting my house that I didn’t have a TV.

      • I’ll ‘third’ that.

        No TV for years and never FB, Twitter, or whatever else mediocy is out there. Any ‘forums’ I choose are related to economics, or dreams. That’s enough of my time that is worth it.
        Let’s face it-
        A.I. is here (had a robot call this morning named Jason wanting to sell me car insurance-forehead slap as it took me a minute to realize the .10sec delay in reply was the computer not a guy named Jason) I chalk it up to age and innocence.
        So the point is- A.I. creeps in reminding me of the “does not compute” expression visually or audibly, creating Zombies out of all who choose to ‘Zone’ with media anything/iphones/swatches/ cyborg implants/chips etc.
        I am amazed how they can (Twilight) zone anywhere and zombie out amidst all the distractions with aplomb; obviating all oncoming challenges. Us older farts or tree huggers tend to vice-grip our limbs and slap our foreheads in wonder.