The stock market dropped 252 points yesterday and – if things don’t go well at the close today – our model which has been long the market may change its mind. (This will be updated in the Saturday Peoplenomics.com report.)
In the meantime, we are watching from as far-off as we can as the world gets wrapped around the axel of current events.
We more or less know that by late 2016 to mid 2017, the world should be in a financial meltdown that will dwarf anything in history.
There is a Second Muslim Invasion of Europe underway, and the spillover here into the former-U.S.A. is ramping up because of insane decisions by a very questionable man-at-the-top.
While the NY Times is headlining that FBI Treats San Bernardino Attack as Possible Terrorism Case, we have to wonder why the media insists on using the word “possible” when it related to a Muslim couple opening fire and killing more than a dozen people on the one hand, while questionable pseudo-scientific claims like warming never include the word “possible.”
Media bias, plain and simple, is what it looks like from our hide-out in the well-armed East Texas Outback.
But even now, there are still large gaps in the public’s awareness of just how screwed-up we really are.
We are being fed bull-crap from the top by this administration: The lefty mantra about gun control (even as taunted by supporters) would not have prevented Paris, nor would it have prevented San Bernardino. Criminals and terrorists don’t obey laws. Is this so terribly hard to understand? (*Disappointingly, the current answer is “yes”.)
The REAL problem is that the occupant of the White House is delusional and can neither speak the word “Muslim terrorists” nor
can will he enforce this Nation’s existing laws on the books.
Forget that he’s a presidential candidate, for a moment, and watch this exchange between Senator Ted Cruz who rakes Sarah Saldaña of Immigration and Customs Enforcement over the coals in a Capitol Hill hearing.
One key number is that there are 918,369 illegal aliens in the U.S. who have been ordered removed by the FedGov, but which they have not done.
Mind you, this is not because of inability or a lack a skill on the part of Border Patrol or ICE agents – who we hold in the highest regard – but by the Obama administration’s deliberate breaking of federal laws ordering removal. The Obama administration is keeping almost a million people who SHOULDN’T BE HERE according to due process.
Hiding behind a lack of “travel documents?” Get serious…(The saying don’t bullshit a bullshitter comes to mind but may be too direct for breakfast time reading…the FedGov is who makes up “travel docs” – d’oh…)
We ask only the obvious: To what end?
And if not to subvert America directly, then what? Yet while this goes on, there is still no motion on impeachment.
Not that Washington it the only place where the data is flowing in from: Texas this week has sued the FedGov over the dumping of Syrian refugees in the state.
Idiocy has also overtaken Germany (gotta love this one): They have voted to support bombing of ISIS…and for all their engineering expertise they inexplicably can’t figure out that the real problem is in trying to change out Assad…IOW: Sie sind nicht so hell, diese Deutschen . Erneut , beginnend an der Spitze.
(*If you forgot Herr Casey’s German class it means “They are not so bright, these Germans. Again, starting at the top…”)
And this has WHAT to do with our core focus here (which is finance)?
Just this: At some point, after all the hype, bullshit, and double-speak, investors can (*and are) losing confidence that the Administration knows what it is doing – and when that happens, look out below.
It is becoming clear that a two-pronged attack on America is being orchestrated from the top.
On the one hand, people who should be removed from our country (murderers, rapists, etc) are still here because the head of ICE falls back on a “travel documents” excuse. We leave our southern border under-protected by administrative fiat.
On the other prong, the administration is committed to the illegal replacement of president Assad of Syria. Who is – without a doubt a bad fellow – but he runs that circus. Hillary’s State Dept. screwed the pooch on this one long go. Thank the neocons, once again.
The neocon string-pullers are working regime-change and no one seems capable of seeing that “regime change” has created the overwhelming invasion of Europe which will take down the EU in 2016-2017 just as invade, divide and conquer is coming to America. There is help at the top.
Fine with us, though: We will simply short the EU sector in 2016.
As I told a buddy of mine (a real deal bond trader) “The EU drafting of Montenegro this week into the EU and NATO is like the crooked sales manager who has to put a sale on the board by year-end, even if it’s a sham.” We wonder what the bonuses in the marketing department of the EU will be like this year? They only hoodwinked 620,000 people of Montenegro this year.
The EU – in case you haven’t figured it – is in a “grow or die mode” which is why the megalomaniacs there are expansion-crazy.
If you’re not clear about how the take-down of Europe will take place, may I suggest you watch ”With Open Gates: on YouTube?
Comes a time during “Another week at the end of the world” when we like to remind folks of the obvious: the liberalistas have been played, gun control as a response to Paris or Sad Bernardino is a sham, and oh, yeah…the voting public has been seriously played.
When people start figuring stuff like this out, the markets begin to drop – like the 500+ points in the past couple of days.
Still, the “show” must go on, and that brings us to this morning’s job report.
Jobs: Nothing to See Here
Hot off the press release:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 211,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction, professional and technical services, and health care. Mining and information lost jobs. Household Survey Data In November, the unemployment rate held at 5.0 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 7.9 million, was essentially unchanged. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons are down by 0.8 percentage point and 1.1 million, respectively. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.7 percent), adult women (4.6 percent), teenagers (15.7 percent), whites (4.3 percent), blacks (9.4 percent), Asians (3.9 percent), and Hispanics (6.4 percent) showed little or no change in November. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 2.1 million in November and has shown little movement since June. In November, these individuals accounted for 25.7 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force participation rate, at 62.5 percent, changed little in November. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 59.3 percent and has shown little movement since October 2014. (See table A-1.)
OK, now my analysis part:
1. The number of people employed went up 244,000. November we would expect there to be a bump due to seasonal hiring.
2. Goods producing employment was up 34,000.
3. The average work week was six minutes shorter.
4. The average weekly earnings were down $1.14…but average hourly wages went up 4-cents an hour.
The markets are OK with the numbers, still tracking to open up 40 to 50.
Fed Rate Machinations
Our “hidden tell” of the day is the latest money supply number from the Federal Reserve. They have put a noose around the neck of rates as shown by taking M1 (cash and direct equivalents) NEGATIVE.
Less money being slopped into the economy will tend of raise the cost of short term money with the idea that this will get the 10-year note to break out to the upside.
Thing is, when it happens, gold should move up too, along with inflation expectations in general and then we should see prices go up several percent preemptively.
Ah the joys of being on a fixed income, eh?
This does increase odds of a rate increase and pull back in the market.
Believe It When It Happens Dept.
Mighty big talk from the titular leader of the Obama wing of the corporate party. Me? Skeptical?
Good News/ Bad News Department
Good news: Potentially will add $600 a year to Social and Vet recipients. Bad news: It’s a democratic election-year buy-off.
Take the money but keep your head – if it happens.