Another Jobs Report, Top Calling

I suppose, in keeping with our main purpose in Life, namely injecting some economic sanity into the global consciousness, we should start with the Challenger Job Cut report:

36,957 Job Cuts in February

The shortest month of the year saw a decline in layoff announcements, as US-employers announced plans to cut 36,957 jobs in February, 19 percent fewer than the 45,934 cuts announced in January, according to the latest report from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Last month’s total was 40 percent lower than the 61,…

The rest of the day’s economic news mainly the import-export prices just released:

“Prices for U.S. imports advanced 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, led by higher nonfuel import prices which more than offset lower fuel prices. The February rise in import prices followed a 0.6-percent increase the previous month. U.S. export prices rose 0.3 percent in February, after advancing 0.2 percent in January.

Imports All Imports: Import prices rose for the third consecutive month in February, increasing 0.2 percent, after a 0.6-percent advance in January and a 0.4-percent rise in December. The increase in February was driven by rising nonfuel prices, unlike the previous 2 months when higher fuel prices led the advances. The price index for imports also rose over the past year, increasing 4.6 percent. That rise was the largest 12-month advance in import prices since a 5.1-percent increase in February 2012.

Exports All Exports: Prices for U.S. exports advanced 0.3 percent in February and have not recorded a monthly decline since the index fell 0.8 percent in August. In February, rising prices for both agricultural exports and nonagricultural exports contributed to the overall advance. Export prices increased 3.1 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year rise since the index advanced 3.6 percent between December 2010 and December 2011.

With these out of the way, we’re back to the same task as every other morning around here: Trying to call the market this way, or that.

In Elliott Wave terms, it looks to me like we are in a pause – a kind of Elliott iv of the larger III – something we will delve into more for subscribers to our Peoplenomics.com reports.  You may have never seen a happier group.  Since the market call made by our Oscillator, the Dow is up 12% since November 11th.

What this means to people looking for a little leverage is that if you participate via a triple-levered ETF you might wrap up about a 35% gain.

What I’ve gone over on the Peoplenomics side is automated – best I can – the process of deciding whether to be long or short the market.  Humans are fine – when they’re right.  But a numbers-based trading approach seems to work as well.

Main problem with humans in the investment mix is this::  They run on a split decision basis between facts and fictions.

A John Cassidy column in today’s New Yorker asks a favorite question:  “How Long Will the Trump Bull Market Last?”

He doesn’t give the obvious answer we have provided so many times:  183 days.  The same as from Herbert Hoover’s taking the Oath on March 2, 1929 to the All-Time-High (until then) on September 3, 1929.  At least that long.

Then he touches on the Fed Interest rate discussion and admits that raising rates can cause the stock market to chill, but not all the time.

To understand this point, let me review how ultra long-term economics works:

today chart

This is what the 10-year US Treasury has done since 1950, or so.  The area of the declining black line represents about half (or a bit less) of an economic long wave.

Since the peak back then was 1981 and since the Fed  is finally raising rates, we can estimate that the economic Long Wave is no longer in the 48-64 year range postulated by Nicholas Kondratiev, but rather something much longer.

It’s axiomatic in technical analysis that stocks, bonds – commodities – you name it – tend to drop about twice as fast as they ran up. 

When we apply this kind of thinking to a 36-year decline in bon ds, we begin to wonder if an economic long wave of as much as 108 years isn’t possible?

Colleagues, however, make an interesting point:  Maybe I missed the idea that we might be looking for two K-wave cycles. 

It’s an attractive notion, to be sure:  That would put the first K-wave peak in 1977, or so.  We have to give is a firm “maybe.”

Still, historical data suggests that Depressions happen when government begins to raise rates, as they did in the spring and into mid summer of 1928.

Money being fickle (did I mention faithless, too?) it will flow to wherever the highest yields are. 

What I’m fairly confident in is that if the Fed raises next Wednesday, the market will suffer a small short-term pullback (or maybe not) and then we will really be off and heading to the moon in stocks

We’ll get into some targets this weekend for our Peoplenomics readers, but the ultimate upside for this market could well be over 30,000 which is just a mind-bending number to contemplate.

Top picking is not a well-regulated art – and like that thing you sit on, everyone has one.

Cassidy’s article deftly says what the market tells most people:  Maybe the Bull will keep running, or maybe it won’t.

It we are in a small iv of III, we should have one more good-sized run to the downside.  With III done, four down will either be the End Times Trumpets, or it will herald the beginning of the last-run for generations.

We’ll just have to sit and watch the number and not be panicked by doom porn into doing anything stupid with our money.

Does Anything Else Matter?

While it is marginally interesting that an “Obamacare revision clears first hurdle in House committee early Thursday,” the reality is neither you or I are voting on it, so why waste time reading about it?

A True Believer might claim “We could call our congressperson and raise our voices and….and….”

Hasn’t worked before, has it?  The definition of insanity is doing stuff that doesn’t work – repeatedly.

Ditto the “Source of the Latest WikiLeaks Document Dump Appears to Be CIA Contractors: US Officials” say.  But since it wasn’t you and it wasn’t me…who cares?

I don’t have any cameras in our bedroom and we use the Amazon Alexa voice features so I seriously don’t care who hears what I say in my own home. 

Besides: Elaine and I never talk seditious talk anywhere but on the south 16, and only then with a radio blaring and faces shielded from lip-reading and with snipers on  over-watch and cottonmouths patrolling the creek bed….

(You don’t really believe that, do you?  Only the cottonmouths part is true…)

Madness on Bordering

Must be something in Hawaii’s drinking water as “Hawaii Sues to Block Trump Travel Ban; First Challenge to Order.”

If Hawaii is nuts, Vermont may be on the road to recovery as a Syrian refugee backing “Mayor Blames Refugee Plan on Defeat.”

I will return to eating Vermont syrup if this keeps up.  Bounce Bernie and I’ll eat Vermont syrup 5-days a week…not until, though.

Hype Shuck and Jive Department.

As “Rutgers students walk out of class for ‘Day Without a Woman’ protest” two thoughts came to mind.

The first is the university employees who participated should all be fired for abandoning their jobs.

Second point iis the students should be required to do make-up work.

Yeah, sure, let ‘em protest all they want – but on their own time and in ways that don’t cheat the paying customers who went to school for an edujmacation. 

The right to Free Speech doesn’t entitle anyone to trample the rights of others, which in the Rutgers case, is getting the education that was paid for. 

Someone out to sue the school for breach of contract for crap like this.  Maybe some Berkeley student will grow some stones, too…ah, no, what’s the point.


Markets are set to open flat to down a tad.  I don’t know why they are following my carefully crafter statistics, but I’m a patient guy.

Comments

Another Jobs Report, Top Calling — 16 Comments

  1. Good afternoon
    I find it odd that the wikileaks dump on how the CIA has created the fleet of hackers and various hacking programs, back doors to processors that nullify encryption, the viri (is that right, since its more then one?) The malware, ect. I mean it helps with the selling of anti virus, malware programs along with ofc the spying and the possibility of a new internet. Don’t worry, they promise they don’t do it to Americans. It’s not like it should be a surprise, which to a lot it probably isn’t.
    Whats odd to me today is how Mr. Assange want’s to come to the rescue of the giant corporations, to help them, help us. I mean in my mind they’re all in it together. We know that back in the day they placed servers/programs into the giant telecom companies to intercept phone calls. Do we really think it is any different today? I don’t. I think it was called carnivore, where they were able to gather emails or intercept them. Just seems like a giant cesspool.

    My second item is about addiction and how its just so wonderful for our consumption economy. What ever your addiction is, its causing you to spend money. Gotta keep it moving ya know. I find myself easily addicted to various things. Cig’s even though I know the major brands are rolled up paper that’s been sprayed with liquified tobacco juice loaded down with chemicals to control flavor and keep the addiction going. mmm yum sounds great. This computer, hours upon hours. Cokes, the drink silly. That addiction wasn’t that hard to control for me, my wife seems to have a sugar fetish though. So I brought out my trusty mail scale and showed her just exactly how much sugar is in a coke, then a case. Its a lot.
    I bring up addiction because I wanted to touch on a thought I’ve have had over the years.
    Various things in our environment that combine themselves to increase our addictions. Various things alone, not an issue, but what if combined something else happens. It’s not like governments haven’t experimented on their populations over history to get an outcome.

    Well enough woowoo for me today. Now I’m going to play with my football card collection. It’s looking quite nice. I’ve sold the majority of my btc with the thought of buying on an upcoming crash that I’m expecting. (soon)

    Thanks for helping me to understand more.

    -The HVAC guy

      • I was unable to buy at the 850 area I had planned on, mainly due to btc not hitting the price area, however even if it had gone to my buy location the exchanges failed to execute orders. People were REKT from exchange failure. They could not keep up with the action. I did not loose but I did not win. I will call it a tie. I’m still looking for more drop on btc but have pushed the buy up to the 900 area. Hey on a bright side, I woke up on the right side of the grass this morning and since I subscribed after following you since 09 I finally get to read Saturday’s write up.

  2. Hawaii has been a ‘Democrat Machine’ forever. ‘Nuf said.

  3. Rationalism. Is a good topic for discussion in the future

  4. Why can’t the common people have the same health care that our congress critters have and at the same price!

    • Because, most people don’t really care for themselves. In other words, they have a ‘silent death wish.’ (Prove is tasting the pudding)!

    • We need to strip many things from CONgress, including their outrageous(per hour) pay, their idiotic titles of “Honorable”, their junkets, their “expense accounts”, their medical insurance, and their ability to be elected more than twice.

  5. Re Hawaii and Trump’s travel ban: I understand that Hawaii welcomes many non-US Citizens to visit and vacation there. Everybody has to fly a long way to visit. If such visitors are worried about being detained at the airport because they look like terrorists or for just whatever reason DHS thinks up that day, vacationers may well rethink their vacation destination and avoid any part of the USA all together. Mexico’s, Central and South America’s and even Canada’s resorts may instead get their business.

    • You couldn’t pay me to go to Mexico. You could pay me to go to Egypt. No reason to go to Canada, but I would go to Alaska.