Up: Another 50 to100?

In Peoplenomics tomorrow morning, I’ll give a full run-down in our ChartPack section, but for now there is a building case that the Market Top came in on August 4th.

I have mentioned this previously.  See the discussion on August 11th where we wondered “Is the Market Top Already In? ”

Now, with a declining trend channel setting up, we would expect the market to rally another 100 points (or less) on the Dow.  At this point, we would “kiss the bottom of the ascending trend channel” and from there a decline could resume that might take the Dow down some hundreds of points.

(Continues below)

 

I am not alone in my view.

Using a different set of tools, my friend Robin Landry up in Oklahoma (page) has been looking at the same kind of possibility.  In his work (he only handles managed accounts) there’s a stopping point just above S&P 2,400-2,410, with another logical support zone down in the 2,324 range, and a big support well below the S&P 2,000 level.

In our work – which is presented as information/research only, not financial advice – we can see there has been a new downward trend setting up so tomorrow using our brainamp.xlsx spreadsheet, we will run through the first couple of directional move “landing zones.”

The first one isn’t too bad – and sets up the potential for a rally into the fall, not a collapse.  The next larger view, however, goes more into the “make your financial hair stand on end” zone.

For this morning, there’s really very little in the way of financial news, except to note that the 10-year Treasury notes are still hanging around the 2.18% range.  If the implied interest rate drops below 2.14% – as now seems possible on the charts – this could result in a serious dominos sequence.

First, if rates drop under 2.14% it opens a chartists case that we could go back to the 2016 interest rate low range around 1.37% (vis the 10Y).

If that happens, not only will my deflationist pal Jas Jain have to borrow my Scrooge McDuck suit to count his winnings from his long-term bond strategy but in addition, bondholders in general will be in a party mood.  I have to ask Jas for an update on his outlook which so far has been more accurate than most advice from the Fed, Office of the Budget, or mainstream media reports.

This, in itself may not collapse the stock market:  That’s more likely when the long-term rate declines are absolutely finished.  But if you’re heading down – and eyeing the real possibility of negative rates in the US in 2018-2019, then the collapse of the stock market would likely be offset from that a year, or so, later.

Amidst all this, we would expect to see the rapid departure of Fed Chair Janet Yellen.  The big economic conference up in Jackson Hole this weekend will no doubt pay extremely close attention to her scheduled Friday remarks.

I don’t often talk about our Aggregate Index approach on the “open” side of our operation, but the concept is simple enough:  You can build a “Global Index” of any number of stock markets around the world and take a weekly picture of their closing for the week.

Since a lot of “hot money” comes off the table for the weekend, what remains as “placed bets” on the weekend is likely a much more stable indicator of sentiment than intraday operating results.

Once you get the concept of the weekly “Global” picture, it’s then simple enough to see two things:  How the US is doing compared with the rest of the world is the first one.

The Global Index has a long-term average and in back-testing, I derived how long an averaging period to use.  When applied as an “Oscillator” you get a very simple, no brains required (which helps me a lot!) indicator.  When it is above the zero axis on the chart, it’s fine to be bullish and long the global market.  When it’s under the zero axis, then look out below.

This indicator has been negative the past two weeks.  And running out overnight number, although not as accurate and not really useable until we see how things look after the U.S. markets close Friday, we are still down with only a glimmer of hope that a rally of any consequence will evolve in the short-term.

Oh!  The U.S. S&P that had been soaring above the “global pack” has now come down into the vicinity of the global average, although we still have additional downside to go.

So in the very short-term now, I would expect the market to rise today and tomorrow and then begin a give-back period going into the weekend.

We don’t know what “news” will drive things, but I do have a candidate and it’s not a pleasant one to consider…

The Pacific Fleet Stand Down

In case you’ve missed it, there’s a very good discussion to be found in our comments section between a former OOD on the one side, explaining that yes, Naval vessels do have watches posted on the one hand, and Oilman2 who points out that perhaps the two recent ship collisions are the result of head-down-in-phone behavior.

In Monday’s column, our military affairs contributor posited the notion that China may have a game-changing advancement in electronics and, if so, oh-oh – a whole table loaded with Global Assumptions is about to be overturned.

To me, this is an incredibly key story to watch.  If there’s nothing to it, then market forces and the Trump Bump have a decent chance of continuing.

But suppose for a moment that both the Russians and the Chinese have evolved a system of electronics that will locally warp electromagnetic conditions and that a warp could be projected.  If you read the Coping section this morning, you’ll see that’s the kind of thing outlined in my forthcoming book Dimensions Next Door, but back to point:

If there is a way to project electronic malfunctions or misfires, then the market would likely collapse.  That’s because it’s an Article of Faith in the Church of the Almighty Dollar that America is the Chosen Land where the sons and daughter of Cash shall dwell with their printers, forever. (Amen.)

What do you think will happen if this assumption proves untrue?

Notice how the East China Sea island-builders are playing this: China: USS McCain Collision Shows US Naval Patrols Are Threat to Safety.

Logic would suggest (although that’s not proof) that if the problems of the McCain and the earlier ship collision were purely personnel issues, there would be no “standing down” of a whole ocean of naval vessels.  But indeed what we read is US Navy to halt operations after USS McCain crash.

A simple, logical question:  Do you stand down the entire Pacific Fleet over two collisions if it’s a personnel and training issue?  My guess is no…

So while we read the ugly part of the aftermath – GRIM DISCOVERY Remains of Navy sailors found on USS McCain – we can see a definite pattern in the headlines that there is a NEW WEAPON in play.

Let’s roll some headlines, shall we?

May 2:  Russian Mystery Weapon Claim Seen as Sign of Military Weakness.

April 19: shock tactics Russian media claims country can wipe out entire US Navy with a single ‘electronic bomb’ in bizarre propaganda report.

Please note that both of these reports preceded the Japan collision by more than a month which you may recall as: Seven missing after US destroyer in collision with container ship.

What came almost a week before the April 19 “Shock” report was a series of Russian fighter jet passes over the U.S.S. Donald Cook.  We were told there was a simple reason why the Cook didn’t respond: This is why the Navy didn’t shoot down Russian jets – Navy Times.

A little more digging reveals a Voltaire.net article from 2014 ( What spooked the USS Donald Cook so much in the Black Sea? ) that includes this pertinent detail:

“As the Russian jet approached the US vessel, the electronic device disabled all radars, control circuits, systems, information transmission, etc. on board the US destroyer. In other words, the all-powerful Aegis system, now hooked up – or about to be – with the defense systems installed on NATO’s most modern ships was shut down, as turning off the TV set with the remote control.”

What’s more, an article in Veterans Today (November 2014) includes this claim:

“After the incident, the foreign media reported that “Donald Cook” was rushed into a port in Romania. There all the 27 members of the crew filed a letter of resignation. It seems that all 27 people have written that they are not going to risk their lives. This is indirectly confirmed by the Pentagon statement according to which the action demoralized the crew of the American ship.”

Behind all this is something indeed remarkable:  A story of Magrav (magnetic gravitation) technology, supposedly invented by a “modern-day Tesla,” one Mehran Keshe, who you can read up on over here.

We note, at the meta level, that Keshe is of Iranian descent.  Could this explain some oddities of U.S. relations with Iran?  More Keshe background over here.

But is Keshe “real” or is he a foil for something else?

And a follow-up note from Warhammer:

Hacking into a radar system, while tricky, is definitely within the realm of the possible.  Radar systems send out EM energy and then process the bounce-back waves to view returns on a screen or cathode ray tube.  The EM returns bouncing back to the ‘dish,’ or radar antenna, are visualized thru the use of programmed computer processors, which have a type of code known as “firmware” embedded within them.  These processors tie into targeting computers and perhaps even certain elements of a ship’s navigation/steering systems.

What if (BIG if) the Chinese developed a way to infiltrate or compromise the radar return data and ‘hack’ into the Fitzgerald or McCain radar system processors,  thus corrupting/hijacking the processor firmware.  From there, intruders might then be positioned to intelligently migrate over to the mission and navigation systems?  Or, more plausibly, a successful hack may have simply generated erroneous return data, which resulted in radar returns falsely displaying nearby ship locations.

Still, visually spotting from the bridge and deck should have alerted the command crew of the two U.S. Ships that something was awry.  Perhaps the commercial ships’ systems were similarly compromised, seriously compounding the safe separation at sea problem set.

As Mr. Spock might say – “fascinating!”

To be sure, there is a report that “Belgian court convicts Mehran Keshe and wife for fraud.”  But even this becomes a bit contorted:  Why would this story break in Ghana? 

The question continue…but for now, we go back to watching an otherwise insignificant news day.

Meanwhile, the futures are point to Dow up 62 at the open.

Comments

Up: Another 50 to100? — 26 Comments

  1. A simple, logical question: Do you stand down the entire Pacific Fleet over two collisions if it’s a personnel and training issue? My guess is no…

    As a retired safety and health professional involved with DOD pre-1990, I can say that at least at that time such stand-downs would have been ordered for multiple death/multiple incidents. Fact is that there is usually a string of several causes creating the conditions leading up to any “accident/incident” and that “personnel and training” are just the most obvious layer. A stand-down gives the chain of command a chance to break through the ass covering and get everyone’s head in the right place to fully identify and correct problems. It definitely clarifies to everyone what any further incidents will mean to them personally.

  2. George this morning’s column once again contains a strong mental spark of sorts (but only if readers pay attention). Yes I know we’re about economics here, but some things that appear to have zero to do with economics are sometimes the very catalyst for economic changes – disruptive technologies anyone? One only has to open their minds to the possibilities without allowing emotion or programming to cloud things.

    Based upon the little solid evidence publicly available thus far regarding the ships/collisions/flyovers, it’s still not hard to conclude that there is indeed an exceptionally disruptive technology at play, that the ability has been known by DC for a few years (if we didn’t develop it ourselves), that the previous WH or 2 failed to comprehend it fully and/or was unable or unwilling to exploit or counter it, and finally, that there is much more in use that’s not even being hinted at currently (OK that last one is always a given). I suspect that with these latest flyovers/collisions and the media coverage, that the cat may be in the process of being let out of the bag – whatever that particular cat may be (sorry Zeus).

    I strongly suspect a very disruptive technology is already in play, and after some amount of time (and military use until too many players have it or the engineering details are leaked), some aspects will become adapted for use by the general public in some productive manner much like microwave ovens, fiber optics, etc. As always, the military acquires advanced technology for a military edge, then some aspect of that is teased out of it, applied to something that will have huge commercial value, and released to select companies to further develop and market. That’s already established protocol put into place by Congress and responsible for some pretty good things we take for granted.

    Unfortunately the other side of that coin MAY be that since one or more political interests know the details of the technologies being used, they could have desires and even plans to use it themselves to further their own agendas in a manner that is decidedly not in the overall US’s interest. If so, I’d expect that there would be a rush by this WH to get the info out to the public at a pace and manner that will prevent panic, but also to expose as much as feasible so as to prevent its’ use by some who’s primary concern is regaining or retaining political or economic power. That could explain a few inexplicable actions by 1600 Penn. Obviously you’ll have to read between the lines on most of this.

    So, we are most likely not looking at just some localized mystery regarding nav issues on 2 or 3 naval vessels, but rather a very politically oriented effort that both exposes a technology that essentially renders most advanced militaries’ ability to conduct operations moot, but also that prevents some political group(s) from exploiting that technology in a nefarious fashion here at home.

    This is all mostly conjecture at this point, and of course I could always just be wrong…

  3. Stock markets seem to like the prospects of more war?!! Afghanistan/trump (trump in small from now on!!) should teach us that elections are useless, imho. How could we NOMINATE Mr. Ure for President?
    This system has to change unless we all perish. However, we seem too busy with our smart phones in order to care.

  4. George
    More information is needed, but we may never get it. Was the impact on the USS Cook gone after the Russian jet left? They headed for port directly right after the flyover! – Corresponding to contiuous wave/beam!
    Or were the systems problems continuing after the incident – internals fried or reprogrammed!

    Why wasn’t the Russion jet impacted if it flew through the beam/wave. Can their hardening and shielding really be that much better than the USAs or is it a specific component in the system that was targeted. Hard to imagine a failed component (programmable logic array?) that spontaneously reverted back to original configuration without a system restart!

    Think they’re going to tell us? LOL!

  5. Dear Mr. Ure,

    I read in Wikipedia, if I recall correctly, that The Fifth Fleet’s USS Ponce is equipped with a “one-of-a-kind” weapons system. Youtube pictures action in-theatre. Blowing things up is one thing, but the prism of the mind does take one back to the UK university research that created a zone of invisibility by bending light. I can’t match your Dr. Zeus’s anapestic tetrameter as I’m still in awe from yesterday’s dark side of the moon.

  6. It looks to me the good ole US of A is vulnerable to attack… Not that I believe that is the goal.

    Jan 12, 2016 – US Navy looses contact with 2 Command vessels and end up in Iran
    June 17, 2017 – Ruskies tease the US Naval fleet with close flyovers and wing waves
    June 23, 2017 – US Destroyer hit merchant ship
    August 12, 2017 – US Navy grounds all Aircraft for 24 hours
    August 21, 2017 – USS John McCain hits merchant ship

    I would think it would be a tough decision for Trump or anyone else to start a war when so vulnerable?

    • You left out the April case of the Donald Cook, so it’s more than the four the MSM is pandering to prevent panic. Just saying…

      • Point taken…

        Probably just China giving orders to their freighters, Collisions are ok! Let’s reduce some USA traffic to keep the homeland safe. I believe 4 ships are now in the shop?

  7. The damage pictures of the McCain show that it is very likely, the ship was not moving at the time of impact. The impact crater would have shown the effects of wiping if McCain had been moving either forward or reverse.

    The only thing that could have put the McCain in the water, is a directed EMP weapon, which would have killed all electrical power. The loss of power would disable turbine controls, communications, both internal, and external, rudder controls, and all weapon systems except small arms, which would have been locked away.

    The 10 “missing” crew members are probably in a crushed or flooded compartment that can’t currently be accessed.

    The Fitzgerald could have suffered the same kind of attack and the NAVY is keeping it under wraps by clamping down on the crew and destroying a few scapegoats.

    If that assumption is true, there is no way the truth will not come out, no matter how hard the Navy attempts to sweep it under the rug.

    Non-nuclear directed EMP weapons are a reality in today’s world. The attempt to keep these attacks under wraps is to avoid WW3. If China’s responsibility comes out, the American public’s pressure will force a military response.

    When the effects of nuclear EMP were discovered after the high altitude last nuke test in the South Pacific, the US military started jumping through hoops to “Harden all the critical electronics from EMP effects.

    Unfortunately, the effectiveness of that hardening is a function of the strength of the EMP pulse, power, and source distance. It appears that the EMP hardening of our military has not kept up with the advances in high power non-nuclear directed EMP, when that weapon is activated at a close range.

    Our forces can probably defend against a known enemy’s plane, missile, or ship carrying an EMP device before it can get close enough to be effective against the hardened warship. A neutral ship carrying an EMP device, passing two miles away in unrestricted sea lanes, is a threat that is almost impossible to counter in peacetime.

    I do admit that the Post Obama Navy has serious problems, in resources, meaningful training, and leadership. I also suggest that the smart phones have become a serious threat to readiness.

    The last observation is that there is no way a virus attack, even to Microsoft operating systems, or remotely activated Chinese components, or an onboard enemy agent, could knock out all those redundant systems.

    Although I write Sience Fiction, I’m also a recovering systems engineer, with a lot of evperiance in protecting electronic systems from excernal transients. While these ideas sound like Science Fiction two Chinese ships passed near McCain that morning.

    • What will be interesting is the videos from the events given how cheap cameras are now. That cheapness leads to them being everywhere.

    • As you know in the past all are all our missiles in the silos we’re taking down or put out of commission for a short period of time while these alien craft for overhead and we have reported people that were in command and on duty at that time that have reported that yes everything was shut down and the people that were outside that weren’t underground in the missile silos reported that these craft were outside and they were able to disable all our missiles so that they have determined that we are not in a harmonious pattern of behavior tells you that the ability to change things and effect things is further along than they technology that we have and like I said before the reason we haven’t advanced in that technology is because we are abusing it abusing it right so the other nations along with the people that are out there making these changes have determined that we are no longer integrated with the universal agenda of the Domaine Force and we are being still ruled by the old Empire

      • Now to know how this is working understand the paperclip agenda the MK which is mind control try to remember back when you were three years old all the way up to six years old did you live anywhere near you New York
        Because you’re either homopolar or your hetero polar
        , these two ideas is where all the research went into you know about shock well that’s what they did is they shocked you by blowing your mind away with thoughts and shock will cause a stroke especially in an elderly person of course kids have died from shock a stroke which is a shocking paralysis and so the thing to do is to find a crack in the door and pry it open and see if you can open it up the first you have to find a crack in the door and to know if you’re being controlled or not

  8. Follow up FBN is now reporting that the Dept of Navy that there was absolutely NO cyber attack involved in the collisions……..sound like the rats are deserting a sinking ship?

  9. Just watching FBN they reported that a Navy Admiral just said that they have NOT ruled out some type of cyber attack in the ship collisions
    the host and military guest were quick to say that was a premature statement FMTD

    • Coffee thoughts. When they run out of statues, that can’t run away. Do you think they might target the dead heads in government that can run?

    • This this technology was used for our super Warriors super soldiers and the technology is that when a limb is blown off they use the that technology in conjunction with the new technology that you’re aware of where they can use I forgot the name of it with a use the the imaging technology the computers where they can make a house or that can make things with computers now that’s what they have done with the human body that can add the parts to it by using the DNA that was present or is present from the time you were born all the way to the present your DNA is was there from the time you’re born which creates recreates Who You Are so all I do is go back into the time of the DNA at the beginning before it was changed by in a molecular structure outside outside the body so they go back in time and say hey we’re going to reconstruct this part of the body as it was yesterday or that can reconstruct your body with your DNA to make you a baby again pretty wild huh

  10. You need to change “resistance” into “support” when talking about levels where a downward stock index move might pause or turn back up. Resistance refers to upper bounds, not lower bounds.

      • Why did I have to cross over your post about coffee now I want some coffee dang it I love to love lots of laughs

  11. I think there has been four collisions this year I read somewhere but don’t take it to the bank