An After-Easter Rally & a Data Scramble for Breakfast

Futures are up about 30 points (or were when I looked) which supports the old theory that a lot of people take money off the table when there is a three-day weekend in play. 

Another theory – along the same lines – is that markets rally ahead of the holiday.  As usual, the “old theory” about this is hogwash.  A glance at the S&P 500 chart (here) for last week clearly shows the market peaked on Tuesday and although there was a tiny bump Thursday, the smart money was off the table early Thursday morning.  (More sellers than buyers caused that decline from the Wednesday close.)

Looking at the week ahead, there’s no lack of things to watch for:  Tomorrow we get the Case-Schiller Housing data, which is a much nicer data set than the numbers from Census because they actually offer some regional insight; not just a national number.

The last three days of this week line up as biggies for employment data. The ADP news jobs Wednesday, the Challenger job cuts Thursday, and the Official Big Deal number Friday.

At the secondary-interest levels, consumer confidence Tuesday, petroleum  data Wednesday, weekly jobless data (horribly noisy data) Thursday and Friday’s monetary minutia like the money stocks and the ISM Manufacturing Index.  The ISM isn’t really in the minutia pile, except since we make next to nothing in America, it’s hard to get worked up over a number that impacts way less than 10% of the workforce. 

We live in a shop-keeper economy, moderated by the government which frankly doesn’t seem to care if we sell each-other nail jobs, a stunning array of useless computer apps, and car washes.  As long as we pay taxes out the nose.  (Or butt, your call, really.)

And that rolls us to a couple of press releases out this morning: 

How’s about we begin with the international trade in goods from Census?

The advance international trade balance in goods was -$62.9 billion in February 2016. Advance exports of goods were $118.7 billion and advance imports of goods were $181.6 billion.

This trade number is something we kicked around on Peoplenomics.com (our premium content).  I mentioned that I was expecting some improvement this spring.  While it’s true  that this morning’s advance data showed a $636-million decline, when seasonal adjustments are considered, the advance number shows an improvement of 3.158 BILLION which – if that filters out into shared reality, would be a fine bump, indeed.  We shall see…

Then we have the Bureau of Economic Analysis laying out Personal Income and Expenditures.

Personal income increased $23.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $23.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $11.0 billion, or 0.1 percent. In January, personal income increased $72.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $57.2 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $10.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

Proprietors’ income increased $0.6 billion in February, compared with an increase of $3.9 billion in January. Farm proprietors’ income increased $2.1 billion, the same increase as in January.

Nonfarm proprietors’ income decreased $1.5 billion in February, in contrast to an increase of $1.8 billion in January. Rental income of persons increased $6.7 billion in February, compared with an increase of $6.0 billion in January. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) increased $7.3 billion, compared with an increase of $8.8 billion.

Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $733.6 billion in February, compared with $720.3 billion in January. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 5.4 percent, compared with 5.3 percent. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s Financial Accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth,

All of this is probably forgettable to anyone who doesn’t care about the future.  It is important to remember, though, that there is a link between the money flowing around the world and how hungry people are, just as there’s also a fine link between war and money for those who are curious.

A few more days and the monthly retirement investment money should come flowing into the market for the month but no telling what the rest of the world will be doing, although losses in Europe (down in the case of France, more than 2% on the CAC-40 and Germany down 1.7%) do pose an interesting cloud over the market today.

There’s some reason to be fearful of decline, on the other hand, the US is really a safe-haven from the insanity of invasion, so we shall see and flip that around tomorrow…

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A reader was wondering why we have the Euro chart on the top of (desktop) displays this morning.  Answer:  In the long term, I think Europe is where the next financial crisis could arise from so as long as the chart is available.  Also, 90-day Euro futures are a good judge of market direction.

Remember, the charts do NOT display on phones and tablets…which I can turn on, but honestly, they look funky on a small screen and I’m trying to be considerate of bandwidth with the site revamp.  The new header graphic is less than have the size of the previous one which should be welcoming by mobileers.

High Min. Wage in Cali

California has a deal now to raise the minimum wage out in the Golden State to $15-bucks an hour.  Good in-depth in the L.A. Times today.

Unfortunately, for the people who need the increase, it looks like only $10.50 next year and slowly going up from there.

Honestly, the problem is that while it seems like politicians are being responsive, that’s not going to rock the world of people who really need the increase. Still, gradually rising wages beats wages falling. 

On the other hand, however, while eventually people might be able to move from five part-time jobs to live down to four jobs, or so, the move is coming slowly enough that a LOT of employers will find ways to streamline their businesses to reduce body counts while maintaining the owner’s take-home.

Bad Weekend for Christians

The good news, as any Christian will tell you is “He is risen.”  The bad news is 69 Christians were killed in a bombing in Pakistan.

You’ll have to pardon me for not buying “the religion of peace” crap  Exactly zero Muslims were blown up in America this weekend.

Ah, but there’s those mean old Westerners again: Belgium Charges 3 With Terrorist Involvement.

Alaska Volcano Poppin’

When you look at the headlines, the report on Mt. Pavlof popping volcanic ash 20,000 feet into the air sounds like a mighty big deal:

Here’s a find lesson in mental acuity:  When the ash goes up to 20,000 feet, try to remember that Mt. Pavlof is already 8,264’ fight. So the ash blow was about 12,000 feet up from the summit.  It’s one of those fine points of flight planning I still remember from covering Mt. St Helens.

Anti-Shots Film Axed

Here’s a headline which is good news – and bad: “ Robert De Niro Pulls Controversial Anti-Vaccine Film From Tribeca Film Festival.”

The good news is that there is still real science that says vaccinations work.  The bad news is we really need to continue to keep the discussion about adjuvants going.

In immunology, an adjuvant is a component that potentiates the immune responses to an antigen and/or modulates it towards the desired immune responses.[1] The word “adjuvant” comes from the Latin word adiuvare, meaning to help or aid.[2] “An immunologic adjuvant is defined as any substance that acts to accelerate, prolong, or enhance antigen-specific immune responses when used in combination with specific vaccine antigens

That, and of course, the other “stuff” that is in vaccines in the way of preservatives and such.

As technology evolves, will regulators (who are largely “captive regulators” in the sense that so many end up going to work in the industry) be able to (or interested in) looking at the tiny little things that could be added to vaccines?  Something to think about is “Nanocarriers for systemic and mucosal vaccine delivery.”

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Drop by tomorrow.  I’ll continue tweaking the website – still trying to make it faster and more compact for the phone readers.  Any comments are welcome…

Comments

An After-Easter Rally & a Data Scramble for Breakfast — 40 Comments

  1. poop symbolism in a dream = it means money

    try a copy of Ibn seerin’s Dictionary of Dreams.

    Hate the column look, please stretch it width wise for those viewing on a 17″+ screen. Easier on the eyes would be anything but blinding white

  2. I love your current “burnt sienna” look, reminds me of the east Texas hills. Grey looks good in some contexts but not here. If you take your “George Ure” signature and incorporate it into your Urban Survival logo on the left, that will balance the page and “soften” the colors at the top of the page.

    I’m impressed, but not surprised, by the many great comments from your readers.

    • Try “the original” look…let’s see how that plays for a day or two. (I got to get back to data crunching for Peoplenomics)

  3. Grey? Whats the problem, I live in WA State where for most of the year everything is Grey

  4. Looked at other websites and noticed your new look is just like, Half Past Human and similar to Backdoor Survival. Grey is so depressing. Like other commenters, I really like warm colors too. Black would look nice and clean.

    Thank you for your informative site

  5. Regarding vaccines and adjuvants, I’ve never taken a vaccine for anything since I was a kid. Bad news for me, and I wish I’d never had them. I’ve studied medicine at the doctoral level and especially immunology, even though it’s not my current field, and I personally don’t find it worth the risk. The literature is equivocal regarding an individual benefit. Any perceived benefits are in aggregate only. Adjuvants are helpful to the manufacturers since they need have far less antigen, but trigger the immune system in a far less specific way and can induce autoimmune reactions.

  6. On vaccinations)My Doctors have noted in my file that I am highly allergic to vaccinations. At first when I tell someone that, they laugh. Then I tell them about the Great Bird flu vaccination urged by the Government in 1976 . My cousin and I went for our shot together,10 hours later we were both on my Mothers large couch thinking we were dying. Neither one of us could move with out help,” liquids poured out of all orifices . We were on the couch for 6 weeks, trying to hold water or soup in our systems so we didn’t dehydrate. That was all the Doctor could suggest for us . Hospitals and Dr. offices were jammed full of sick people “after the shot. None died of Bird flu, but several died after having the shot. Imagine that! The sick thing is people are convinced being around unvaccinated people will make them or their child sick after their vaccination. Vaccinated people run around with live virus’s for 2 weeks and shouldn’t really be around groups of people. That’s what we were taught when I was a young girl. Kid’s now are getting (40?) shots and no safety instructions. My 2 cents-

  7. I have no idea what grey people are talking about. I’m on a desktop and it’s black text with white background. I like it that way too. One pet peeve on other sites is where they use grey text on white background with thin line fonts. That’s really hard on the eyes. Give me thick fonts in black on white and I’m happy.

    I only focus on text. The least effort to get there is my goal. I did notice that it took a while to load, and hung up my system for a while, like a minute, but I’ve got well over 100 windows/tabs open between three browsers and several apps running 24/7.

    I see the standard gold/silver/USD at the top in charts. I’d be thrilled to see something that shows the Euro too. No idea why that isn’t showing, other than my odd setup here. Other charts you don’t have room for would be metals priced in Euro, RMB, and maybe other currencies.

    Overall, it’s a good job. I don’t use a smart phone and avoid looking at any screen less than 15″. There’s just not much there to see. Just my 2 cents.

    • >MIKE< If you click on the PM / US charts you will
      find a 'wealth' of information. Thank you George & KITCO

      {mm}

  8. Speaking of “bad news for Christians,” added to your list should have been the crucifixion of a Catholic priest who was captured by ISIS when it attacked a home for the elderly in Yemen, killing four nuns who were caring for the elderly there. The relatively young priest was crucified in the Roman manner by ISIS on Good Friday, which was apparently the leadership’s idea of an ironic joke on Christians. These vermin must be exterminated, down to the last one of them – no negotiation, no amnesty, no treaties and no cease-fires. Civilization cannot accommodate such barbarians.

  9. If the ash from Mt Pavlof gets into the stratosphere, which at the poles starts at about 8 km (26,000 ft; 5.0 mi) altitude, it could nucleate clouds. This could result in a cold winter next year.

    And, to put in my 2-cents about you new design, I am surprised that the “new” look with grey tones and less color contrast is becoming predominant across the web. There must be a reason, but thought one of the advantages of web vs print was that color was free. ( guess that myth will also go the way of the 3-legged stool)

  10. “eventually people might be able to move from five part-time jobs to live down to four jobs, or so, the move is coming slowly enough that a LOT of employers will find ways to streamline their businesses to reduce body counts while maintaining the owner’s take-home.”

    I was in that bracket listed above working twelve to eighteen hours a day seven days a week. a day of vacation was an eight hour day… It started in the early eighties during the Reagan administration. before that you could live on the income of one job and everyone no matter where you worked had employee insurance with family available.. today most jobs hire only a handful of employees that they offer benefits to the rest go without and they export a good share of the manufacturing to increase profits. I still think this was all a planned move by the insurance companies that started when jobs started to export manufacturing where.. My thought was that by eliminating the vast majority or at least a third of the populations from being able to purchase insurance that it would cause a ruckess over rising costs and premiums enough to get the government involved where eventually everyone would have to pay a tax for a basic policy then sell supplement policies to everyone for services not covered.. that would send the rates sky high and profits to.. what i find funny is those that work part time and are not willing to give up their families will qualify for a government program to even up the wages..now if you cut those programs and still keep sending our jobs to other countries to propel the few at the top to the stratosphere It will eventually put the country in a financial tailspin I think to the point where the dollar will be worthless.

  11. Bring back the warm, golden toned sides!
    The grey is far too shocking… or depressing…for an early morning dose.

  12. George,

    Please return the charts for mobile devices. They did display if the phone was turned sideways. Also, now when I turn my iPhone sideways the text remains the same size I instead of getting larger like it did before. I do like the new look, functionality is not as good. For various reasons I almost always use my iPhone to read your column, not my laptop. Desktop? What’s a desktop?

    Best regards,
    Paul
    Scottsdale, AZ

    • Charts work on phones and tabs now, but justifying them is a bear…on the list

  13. About vaccines: NONE of my physician friends or their families get vaccinations…they don’t believe in chemotherapy, either, and advise friends and family to stay away from it. One day l asked the nurses at my internist’s office if they got a flu , pneumonia or shingles vaccination-two quickly said “no” and the other shook her head and refused to answer. Just my experience..

  14. George, haven’t cared one way or the other regarding the look. I have been here for the content. I do like the clean feel this gives to the site. It is a stark difference juts because I was use to the other. But do what you will with the layout, looks, and the grey. Keep the content as insightful and informative and I am happy!!

  15. I’d go for the blue of “George Ure” at the top for the edges but then that’s my color-loving bias. I’m 64 and supposed to wear black, navy , or dark gray at work so I tend to splash out in brights in my off hours. $10.50 California minimum: I’m up to $10.65 after ten years part-time in a certain department store and due for an annual raise in a couple of months, which so far I have never missed, even in the years where they were limited to the more meritorious. A friend asked me how I’d feel if new hires come in making nearly what I make and I wouldn’t begrudge them. Every time I get my 25-30 cents raise they have cut my hours so I never gain ground. Thank heavens for Social Security! I took it at 62 and since I’m still working I get a little bump since my current earnings replace earlier years that were below the annual minimums that counted for crediting those years. My first few years as a graduate teaching assistant were under $3500 and my first real job at a bank was only $6000. I used to wonder, “I’m a college graduate, even have a masters and half a PH.D. Where’s that $10,000 a year salary we were promised in Intro to Eco?” I gradatued with B.A.in English in 1972 and didn’t hit the $10,000 until 1982. Can’t remember what the new aspiration was by then!

    • Totally agree with that! Employers never seemed to value people who could actually work in clerical positions, and would act as if dealing with information all day was a breeze, and not worth paying a good wage.

      Once I worked in an office where I was responsible for an early version of copying machine that used both toner and dry powder ink. Some ‘big wigs’ were visiting, and the boss decided that he would show off the ‘new’ machine by replacing the toner and ink; I offered to show him how but he said it was simple and he could do it. “Okay,” I said – Bill thought ‘the clerks’ did nothing of importance . . . too bad he spilled the toner and blew ink powder everywhere . . .

      Clerical work is specialized such as any other job and should be paid accordingly! Some jobs are under-valued!

  16. Perhaps the grey margins might serve as a playful subconscious reminder that each report contains black and white facts at the heart of every column with a lot of grey area at the margins!

  17. “Honestly, the problem is that while it seems like politicians are being responsive, that’s not going to rock the world of people who really need the increase. Still, gradually rising wages beats wages falling.”

    Ergo, gradually rising inflation beats deflation? It’s all funny money.

    Nice new look to the website George!

  18. Also, as an aside, I too would rather prefer to see the whole USD basket, the USD index, as opposed to just the USD/EUR spread.

  19. “The good news is that there is still real science that says vaccinations work.”

    NOne of it works. Its all a big fraud! Its all lies from square one. It causes lots of diseases, but they will never admit it. And once 5 years (or less) passes, they can just blame it on something else. You really think that they wuld admit that anything that they give someone actually causes a disease?? If anyone really beleievs that, then all I can say is LOL BIG TIME!!!

  20. Like the new look of the site. It does load faster. I did like the purple though. You are so accomodating to change after 1 request. Some things just matter more to some than others. I’m still a big fan of George Ure’s news. It’s actually news I can use. Thanks for all you do.

  21. I read on my desktop computer 23″ monitor. Thanks for this upgrade. The consistency in font size and wider line spacing makes the text easier and faster to read. The general layout is very nice too, with an improved visual impact IMO. Everything like this helps senior eyes and readability.

  22. No offense, G, but I liked the warmth of the older look.

    This is a whole lot cleaner looking, yes, but grey screams frosty cold and dismal rain, if you look at that color in a meaningful way. Won’t change me reading your information and POV, but it’s hard to look at a gray screen and then out my window to a grey sky and not get depressed from this shade of mood altering color.

    I suppose it’s the data subtley nudging you to this depressing color? Heaven knows global financial circumstances don’t warrant a bright undertone.

    • I can get rid of the gray sides and make them white….or??>? But consensus is a difficult thing in web design…

      • Honestly, anything tinted in organic, warm shades.

        I am a lone voice expressing this so far. Wait and see what others think, of course. And , if I were you, I’d ask Elaine, she’s your GoTo when it comes to esthetically pleasing, yes?

      • Sadly, tis true . But if you want neoNazi architectural look to things, I’m the guy. Bring on the concrete…gray is good,

      • *sigh* Internet ate my post…

        I’d say anything with a warm, organic tint. As I’m the only one who’s noticed, maybe see what others think too. Maybe you should ask Elaine her opinion? She’s your GoTo for anything Esthetically pleasing, yes?

      • “Paint It Black” remember? this aint no warm and fuzzy site. We all want to stay in the Black.