Alarmed It’s Monday? Market To Rally

Don’t ‘cha hate it when the damn alarm goes off on Monday?

Most Mondays I would have to agree with you but this one?  It’s a bit odd…almost surreal.

You see, there’s a massive global rally underway and it’s something worth discussing because it deals with an intriguing aspect of economics; namely that there’s only some much wealth (in aggregate) throughout the world.  So where does it go and where does it come from to drive these fits of elation and collapse that we go through?

In Asia, both the Japanese and the Chinese markets were up better than one percent.

Gains in Europe were on the order of one-half to one percent in the early going, too.  Except for the French, who you’ll pardon me for saying, can be a bit slow at times.  Even they are up a quarter of a percent.

The market futures were looking like a 60-point rally in the Dow, something less in the S&P and the metals were going zombie on us: Rising a bit from the dead.

OK, Detective:  Why?

For one, the weekend hype machine has just about convinced the world that the “U.S. is Safe from an Ebola Outbreak.”  Spit fire and save matches – that’d sure be gasoline on the market IF TRUE.  (You’ll pardon me if I wait a month and see if it’s just the initially exposed folks in Dallas…and whether there are more in the wings.)

Don’t let the Calendar get in the way of a good story, though:  The market loves the Jobs report out Friday and we have clear sailing statistics-wise until the the inflation numbers come out after the 15th.

The ugly under-belly of economics here is that money creation is being dialed back by the Fed.  When there is less money being printed, rates tend to firm…and if it’s carried far enough, rates will actually rise.

Over the past year, creation of M1 (the narrowest measure, basically a look at cash) was up 10.2%,  Notice how – in the six-month view it drops to a 7.2% annualized rate and then down to a 3.9% annual rate basis the most recent three months.

If you’re planning to buy a house, car, or other big-ticket item, it may be getting on toward time to close on that purchase because it begins to look like rates will (very, very slowly)  be firming.

Proof World is Not Ending

Baltic Dry Index – holding over the 1,000 level with a read of 1,029 this morning.  If the world was going to end, wouldn’t we be down into the 600’sd again?

Out Peoplenomics trading model still hasn’t turned down, despite end of world pronouncements left and right.  Damn little bugger just keeps up the smiley faces – for now.

Rude of crude to point out demand is still slack: Under $90 for crude this morning.  Is gold about to kiss the underside of $1,200? 

Week Ahead

Gee, how about the Fed’s Consumer Debt of Yoke and Oppression due out tomorrow afternoon?  Of course they call it the Consumer Credit report – which is the nice way of handing you a loaded revolver, I suppose.

Fed minutes Wednesday, and the Treasury Budget on Friday, but nothing to keep you from hitting the “snooze” this morning…

Ebola Historical

No more cases reported today (be patient, er, so to speak).  In the meantime, the actual facts of the case are being collected on Wikipedia, which will be as good a contexter of the hype as any.

Breaking Up Ain’t Hard to Do

Want an HP Computer?  You may soon be asked whether that’s a Hewlett or a Packard….as the once technogiant is on the verge of breaking up in order to be more in the business and personal marketplace, reports the NY Times.

It leaves me asking embarrassing questions, though:  Like “How come ya’ll just don’t do this internally through internal accounting?  Unless, of course, the idea it to do a stock-deal so the execs can make out…know what I mean?”

Are two options packages better than one?  You might want to check out how Bell breakup execs really did…

Art of Cheap Living:  Falling Gas Prices

Check out the “selected market” tool over at the AAA’s Fuel Gauge Report.  Shows that prices are really coming down – in fact down to $3.289. nationally when I checked out prices for Texas.  The Seattle area, where we just spent a month considering the possibility of moving, shows up with some of the higher prices around $3.702 per gallon.

This compares with $3.102 in   both Dallas and Houston…Granted the price of gasoline is not a particularly Big Deal when we’re creeping up to the retirement finish line, but 19% is 19% on any line-item in a budget…something worth paying attention to.

One other note abut retiring to the “Outback.”

Our property tax bill for the year came in Saturday.  Right around $873.  That for the house and 28.82 acres +/-.

Granted it’s a highly customized modular, but stay with me on point:  Our friends up in the northwest seem to be averaging around $3,000 a year in property taxes.

Effectively, this means our “rent to the government” (which is what property taxes really are) pencils out to $73/month for retirement.  Up north, the tax bite would be $250 per month.

Planning retirement is still pretty simple:  Take whatever your projected income in, then downsize the lifestyle until there’s more coming in than going out. Strange how that works….

Criminal Amnesty

The L.A. Times reports that more jails around the country are refusing to hold prisons for federal authorities.

Reading through the article, it’s hard to figure who’s more wrong:  Local jails for turning out people destined to be deported or the Customs and Border folks who don’t seem to be able to deport people effectively.

My money’s on Customs and Border Patrol…the Washington Cartel can hardly wait to spring their private Executive La Raza moment on a whole nation of low-information unsuspecting voters…but not until after the elections so their democorp cronies won’t lose the Senate rate.

Internal Job Posting:  Attn Squidders

Do we have anyone who is a whiz with Squid programming for a short (hour or two) engagement?

If you think Squid is a fishy tentacle thingy, then don’t bother.  If close enough, this would be a fly-in and program at the airport kind of deal.  For money, too, and maybe a free lunch.. I’m a high-level design guy, not a rock-zee-proxy bridging configuration jock…


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