This is one of our all-time favorite cycles to keep an eye on for they do seem to have a fabulous impact on how the economy does.
In fact, Clement Juglar is credited with observing a 7-11 year economic cycle called (of course!) the Juglar Cycle…
The Juglar cycle is a fixed investment cycle of 7 to 11 years identified in 1862 by Clement Juglar. Within the Juglar cycle one can observe oscillations of investments into fixed capital and not just changes in the level of employment of the fixed capital (and respective changes in inventories), as is observed with respect to Kitchin cycles. 2010 research employing spectral analysis confirmed the presence of Juglar cycles in world GDP dynamics.
The other shorter term cycle that gets some press is called the Kitchin cycle, and while officially it’s 40-months, or so, in length…
This cycle is believed to be accounted for by time lags in information movements affecting the decision making of commercial firms. Firms react to the improvement of commercial situation through the increase in output through the full employment of the extent fixed capital assets. As a result, within a certain period of time (ranging between a few months and two years) the market gets ‘flooded’ with commodities whose quantity becomes gradually excessive.
But most of us who have spent a ton of time and dough on learning economics realize at some level that this Kitchin cycle sure seems to highly inter-related to the US four-year presidential cycle.
It is axiomatic that people today are not terribly different than people of 5,000 years ago. And we’ve still got the same old “money changers out of the temple” problems – it’s just the money-changers now own everything. Or, wait, is that really a change?
At any rate, there is your sunspot data and we see that things should be cooling down over the next several years and this doesn’t leave much hope for the Global Warming Alarmists who would be worked up over something else, if climate islanding hadn’t come along and had the original data sets not been tampered with, and if governments world-wide were not so desperate for growth that they would monetize social movements and the weather just to hold onto power…
But, like it or not, that’s where George’s view of things sits this morning: Market should rally at least until Friday when we eventually get this part month’s Employment data.
Despite what we’re guessing to be about 120,000 layoffs in the oil business, as long as the price of oil remains over $50-bucks, it will cause the implosion in the energy business to happen in slow-enough motion such that the Hillacrats will have a shot at the Kitchin cycle driver next year.
The solar cycle bottom should come around inauguration time for whoever the high bidder to buy the White House is…and then when interest rates begin to rise shortly thereafter, collapse will come a calling when it does.
But not this week. ADP Jobs Wednesday, Challenger Cuts Thursday, Federal report Friday and it’s all the more reason to hit the snooze alarm and call it good. Sleep through the small pop at the open this morning, unless it’s going to make you rich, of course…
In the meantime, a blow off peak is likely still in our future and it should be a spectacular one, at that.
Islam Vs. the West Comes to Texas
Two gunmen were killed in Garland, Texas (Dallas area for outsiders) when they drove up to an anti-Muslim cartoon contest and opened fire on a security guard. They were immediately shot and killed.
The security guard suffered an ankle wound, leading us to wonder if the perps were from Texas, at all.
For details as released twit @garlandtxgov.
Our Nostracodeus Big Data projects suggests the possibility of a second attack, only this one might be in Europe figures chief data slicer & dicer Grady…
On or about May 24th, we’ll be watching for something to do with the attack on the French cartoon magazine. (Attack in Texas May 5) There is still potential for another.
Among other things, we use word frequency analysis and something called the Fine Structure Constant (FSC) in the work. Among other things, we see an outline of a cycle length of 130-145 days between mass murders/rampage killings.
Yeah, I know… “Stick with watching TV, or something, George…”
No thanks. The future matters and so, therefore, should macro data leading into it, which gets us to…
Global Coastal Event This May?
I know we didn’t get one as predicted a few years back, but as Ure’s theorem of Big Data and the Future holds, if an event is SUPER BIG, we would not be surprised to hear or see it in data years in advance.
So with that in mind, click over and read this post on GLP which is mighty interesting under the heading “Global Coastal Event on May 28, 2015 Cientific study + Nostradamus.” (Their spelling, not mine – for a change.)
I’ve asked G.A. Stewart, author of “Nostradamus and the Age of Desolation” to have a look at the claims and give us a read on them… more when I hear back.
But the recent increase in quakes has me drawing lines of global earthquake views with the idea of anticipating where the next large magnitude temblors will be… Crude arrows show possible plate directionals…
Timing of this? Well, G.A. Stewart is looking at around May 20 as a possible hot date.
“I haven’t watched the whole video, but I noticed that the commentator translated Nonnay in Quatrain X-67 as Virgo.
I see it as Nonay, France. A town in the Bourgogne region of France approximately 150 south of Paris.”
So a morsel from his The Age of Desolation website:
With the military deploying in the US, Saudi Arabia and Egypt attacking Yemen, and Iran supporting the rebels in Yemen as well as seizing merchant ships, and then May 3rd’s 3.9 earthquake in LA , May 10th looms ominously.
Nostradamus Quatrain IX-83
Sol vingt de Taurus si fort terre trembler,
Le grand theatre remply ruinera,
L’air, ciel & terre obscurcir & troubler,
Lors l’infidele Dieu & saincts voguera.
Nostradamus Quatrain IX-83
Sun twentieth of Taurus [May 10th] a mighty earthquake,
the great theater completely [Hollywood, California] ruined:
The air, sky, and earth darkened and troubled,
The infidels [Islamic Jihadists] invoke God and saints [martyrs].”
You need to see his site for why May 20 is also key…He’s done some spectacular work and it deserves a good read. Smart fellow and regardless of your opinions on such, very much worth following.
BTW: Did I mention this from sharp-eyed (so much so we need to get his blood pressure checked) reader Don? “Due west of New Madrid and you hit the Oklahoma quake area…”
Dang, wish he hadn’t mentioned that…
Buying the White House
I don’t think she has a chance to outbid You Know Who on the other side, but Carly Fiorina is running on the GOP side.
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is also in the running as of today.
Since Bernie (self-described socialist) Sanders is running under the democratic banner, I’d sure love to see a really clear choice for America in 2016: Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as the Demo ticket and Carson-Fiorina on the GOP side.
Either way, I think the country could win. And there would be a lot more clarity as to public thinking.
The rest of the pack strikes me as old-line politicians of the “mining the miners” stripe.
But BIG MONEY has already made it clear neither of my dream tickets would come to pass. Just too much weight on the scales of justice. That money means more than character is one of the few failures of how ‘Merica works.
Marco Rubio continues to make ground with his “There is no right to illegal immigration” stance.
Oh Great, A New Bug: Chikungunya
“It’s Not Really News” Dept.
I couldn’t help but dip the pixels in a little venom this morning as I noted how the aristocracy-clamoring press is falling all over itself with the latest “Who cares?” about royalty.
Seriously, I don’t understand the Brits. Here in the colonies, folks like me were given a name but mostly answered to “Hey! You!” until age 25, or so.
And for the first 12-years of school, I thought my name was “Pick up Ure room.”