Coping: Let’s Talk About this Halloween

You may remember a good while back (and it might have been on the Peoplenomics.com site) that we did a fair-sized discussion about the Taurid Meteor Shower and the very first Halloween some 15,560 years ago (approximately).

This morning from remarks from another brother of the Oak Leafs, warhammer, who is similarly concerned about “what there lurks and we roll into the fall.

When the designated smart people I know begin to collectively sing the same tune, it may be time to pay closer attention…

(Continues…)

 

So warhammer watches the NASA remarks on additional potentially hazardoius asteroids and such and here comes the thinking cap:

“Several media outlets were reporting this week that NASA has seen an uptick in comet and asteroid activity.  Perhaps this is because more high tech stuff is looking.  Perhaps something unusual really is being observed.

The Czech Academy of Science is warning that a risk lurks within the annual Taurid meteor shower, remnants of the tail of Comet Encke.  This year, the Taurids peak in the Northern hemisphere from November 10th thru the 11th.

https://www.gattonstar.com.au/news/unexplained-increase-comet-activity-near-earth/3188219/

Adding to the curiosity, Forbes (one of the more reputable publishers out there covering such things) published an article detailing various doomsday maps of how Earth would look after a major planetary shift and relating that to the recent spate of Billionaire survival bunkers located in exotic, remote places.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimdobson/2017/06/10/the-shocking-doomsday-maps-of-the-world-and-the-billionaire-escape-plans/#18b0204c4047

Forbes covering the doomsday connection is most interesting.  The disaster meme is unusually strong for something happening, perhaps an event originating from the sky.  One can legitimately ask why billionaires, people who are not prone to wasting millions of pounds, dollars, yen, Euros, etc. on whimsical acquisitions, begin showing a keen interest in survival strategies.  Are they simply hedging their bets, or has their insider positioning given them access to information that the rest of us are shielded from.

Getting a bit more wu-wu, and preceding this year’s Taurid event, much hullabaloo is being made of a once in 7000 year celestial alignment predicted to occur on the 23rd of September of this year that astrologically matches a description in Revelation 12.  This link addresses the alignment from more of a scientific point of view rather than a prophetic one, but again, it is interesting that such an alignment is coinciding with the ones noted above:

http://earthsky.org/human-world/biblical-signs-in-the-sky-september-23-2017

Add to these the fact that the continental U.S. will experience a total solar eclipse from Seattle to Charleston, S.C. on August 21st.   Total eclipses have always connoted bad times throughout human history.  The blood moon lunar tetrads of 2014 and 2015 have yet to yield any doomsday-like occurrences, however, Donald Trump was elected in 2016!  To many die hard liberals, that development alone WAS the first trumpet of a political Armageddon that could lead to the end of pseudo-socialist life as we know it.

Still – things are not what I would call normal.  The memes in the movies, the media, and in relatively reputable publications not known as ‘fake news,’ attention is being drawn to the sky:  Planet 9, Taurids, Earth changes, doomsday bunkers and seed vaults, comets and asteroids.  It makes one wonder if Chicken Little was ahead of his time. “

To be sure, the events of the Taurids (which as Capt. Midnight wrote earlier about) may not be the only thing that is driving the elder versions of Richie Rich to seek survivable hideouts.

As we’ve been tracking on the Peoplenomics.com side, the Threat Board for this fall gets to be pretty impressive.

For one, the stock market might be ready on our estimated date this year (August 21) to put in a new all-time high.  No better time to “take the money (and food, and water, and meds, and a small harem and…) and head for parts not equipped with conventional addresses.

Next we have the problems of Asia.

Yes, Pakistan and Indian could still go to war over anything and nothing with less than an hour’s notice.  No, we don’t want that, but crazy is as crazy does over Kashmimr.

Then we have our cell phone and electronics supplier b uilding islands in the East China Sea…and they are now arming those.

On their Agenda long term is the reunification of Taiwan with the Mainland and of course there’s Kid Korea and the nuclear, chemical and financial nightmare up the road from Seoul’s ville.

Toss in the mad mullahs who are plotting to wipe as many of us deplorables and infidels as possible (they seem to share an agenda with some…) and we see how it would only take a few airliners being popped for the US to become a very insular country.

We do have most of what it takes to go self-sufficient.

Now toss in a calamity from the skies, at the same time there’s a massive hack taking down the internet and the public switched telephone network (PTSN) and that leaves a world where ham radio types like us will own the communications world..

Splendid prospects for the Techno Prepper in Chief?

Well, no, not presactly.

But it is Friday, after all, (he says  switching to  his best Raymond Reddington voice).  Let’s all have fun and enjoy a fine weekend.

The problems will be here Monday, and if things are too bad, we still have Mr. Kaplan on speed dial.

Damn Smart Birds?  Uh….

Odd event:

Elaine goes out shopping about once a week to top of things.  Went to Krogers this week and was cheerfully shopping.

Noticed something a bit odd in the pet food aisle.  A bird was busily trying to get into the dray cat food bags.

Smart bird, right?

No.  Elaine points out the bird food was on the opposite side of the aisle.  And Thus we learn a bit more about bird’s brains.  Not only do the cat pictures on all that hoity-toity gourmet cat food sucker in consumers, but they don’t scare the birds off.

She suggested we might find a part-time birding job for Zeus the Cat this summer.  I’m sick of his usual summer excuse for not finishing his GRE prep courses…we may have to put him to work.  Real work.

Next time I give him a story to proofread about how the Sky is Falling, I’m going to fire him for spelling it meater instead of meteor.  Been that kind of a week around here.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

The Return of Consumer-Super-Saturation

(This will be updated as data is released) We will have an unusually short and to the point column this morning because I have a) been coding for the past 5-hours down in the CSS levels of the new website that I mentioned in Peoplenomics Wednesday and b) I have all the parts to get the riding mower going again, so with grass getting long, priorities, priorities…  And writing on the (*still free) UrbanSurvival site has to fall where it will…

So the first point of this morning.

Remember out discussions over past years about what will happen when Consumer-Super-Saturation shows up?  The economy will go from bad to horrific over the couse of a year, or so…and we will be in the Greater Depression as my friend Jas Jain has been calling it for years.  OK, since 1997 actually… since those of us engaged in the study of long wave economics c an see trains like this one coming from a long ways off…

(Continues)

 

Now in case you have forgotten the core question that leads to Consumer-Super-Saturation (CSS but not cascading style sheets, lol) it is simply this (language alert!) “How much shit do we need?”

I mean this very seriously.

While I am something of a hawk on border security, for example, the fact is that people sneaking in from Mexico (and points further south) have increased demand for a lot of items domestically.  Not new stuff, so much, but people in the third world (which arguably Mexico is and we are heading toward) know how to fix (repair, recycle, repurpose, etc) things.

We don’t.

Ergo, when I saw the Federal Reserve’s latest numbers showing the rate of consumer debt growth was down to 2.5%, or so, in the latest reporting month, I began to get nervous about the coming Big Decline.

It was one of the items weighing on my mind when I got into that short position last week, which while I made a few cents on, holding through today (with the Dow futures looking like -100 or more between now and the weekend) shows again that ADHD and investing make difficult bedpersons (if that;’s a concept).

You saw the retail sales and the Fed hike on Wednesday, I assume?

Let me lay out what I think will happen between now and our projected All Time Market High on August 21 (or 24th, markets read my forecasts as well as race horses read The Daily Racing Form).

The first thing we should see will be some weakness in the two regional Fed reports out this morning.

NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing:

“Business activity rebounded strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index shot up twenty-one points to 19.8, its highest level in more than two years. The new orders index posted a similar increase, rising twenty-three points to 18.1, and the shipments index advanced to 22.3.The inventories index climbed to 7.7, indicating a rise in inventory levels, and labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment and hours worked. The pace of input price increases was unchanged, while selling price increases picked up somewhat. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic about the six-month outlook. “

Philly Fed Report:

“The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 38.8 in May to 27.6 this month (see Chart 1). The index has been positive for 11 consecutive months. Forty-two percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in June, down from 51 percent last month. The shipments index decreased 11 points, while the new orders index was little changed. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the eighth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders.”

Then we saw some softening in import and export prices.

All Imports: Import prices decreased 0.3 percent in May, the largest monthly drop since the index fell 0.5
percent in February 2016. The decline was driven by falling fuel prices, unlike last month when higher
nonfuel prices more than offset decreasing fuel prices. The price index for U.S. imports rose 2.1 percent for
the 12 months ended in May. The last over-the-year decline in import prices was a 0.2-percent decrease in
October 2016.

Fuel Imports: Prices for fuel fell 3.7 percent in May following a 0.3-percent drop in April and a 3.1-percent
decrease in March. The last time fuel prices fell by more than 3.7 percent was a 6.8-percent decline in
February 2016. The May decrease was primarily led by a 3.9-percent drop in petroleum prices. Natural gas
prices also declined, falling 2.9 percent. Despite the recent decreases, import fuel prices increased 16.9
percent between May 2016 and May 2017. The import price index for petroleum advanced 16.2 percent for
the year ended in May and natural gas prices rose 44.1 percent.

The Fed’s industrial production and utilization figures out in the next hour, or so, will also likely not toss rainbows and lollypops at the assembled multitudes.

Quadruple witching tomorrow with a hot side of housing starts which should be fun…

Which leave us in what looks like the following chain of events.

The market will come down today (with possible follow-through selling tomorrow) and that will take us to the bottom of a trend channel Peoplenomics.com subscribers have in their charts from the Wednesday report.

About there, I will likely go long the market because we should have a screaming powerful run into August.  This is summertime, and other than the fear-pandering stories about how Trump is under investigation for obstruction of just-us, we don’t see anything really big “rocking it” until August-ish.

Then Sucka-a-bunch Economics will arrive.

Between here and thar, we ought to see greedy bond mone6y come off the table and roll into stocks.  That’s because as the yield on bonds goes UP the retail price of bonds goes DOWN.

Here’s a bond.  I lent $100 to someone and it pays 10% interest.  If the prevailing interest rate is zero, then that looks like an easy way to scalp a nice 10% return.  But to illustrate the point, what if the prevailing rate goes to 8%?

Well, that does it:  Suddenly your bond is going to make a lousy two percent.  Sucks to hold bonds when rates are going up.

So (greedy and shifty-eye sleazoid that you are) you look for other ways to make some fast cash.  Knowing that stock represent assets that are adjusted to market conditions (like rates and inflation), you jump in there.  Because, when you study the market you notice that we have been on a steady roll since November.

So the market goes up like crazy.  People like me track the price of at-the-money (or just under it) put options for the fall, and we all sit around fizzed on coffee and remark on how brilliant we all are.

And then comes August 21st (a Monday).

Here’s the kind of (language Alert 2!!!) shit sandwich we could see served in that window:

  • Special prosecutor Bob Meuller could be closing in on Donald Trump because he’s been loading up with democrat lawyers who have given generously to people like Obama and Clinton.
  • Somewhere in this vicinity, Kid Korea will light off a very public nuke test and Mad Dog Mattis et all will have to start using all that materiel they’re presently moving into the theater of conflict.
  • Market experts will be scratching their heads and worrying loudly about how consumers aren’t spending as much.  Also about here, I will be saying “Who told you a new cell phone or app won’t save the freakin’ economy?
  • The mislabeled liberal democrat controlled congress (they ran as republicans but less than half really are…as we have discussed they mostly fly ‘flags of convenience’ so they can claw their greedy way into power, money, hookers, book deals, fat retirements, etc.  Did I mention foreign travel junkets?  How many congressoids have played St. Andrews, huh?)
  • Consumers will be tapped out because despite enough hot air to launch a fleet of hot air balloons there is no relief in sight for the little people.

Somewhere in here, people will begin to ask “How much more crap to we need?”

That, my friend is the most dangerous question that people suffering fro9m super-saturation can ask because when they do, they stop buying new things and make-do with the old.

I did mention that for $187 worth of parts and shipping from Jack’s Small Engines I am saving the price of a new 48″ riding mower which was $2,395 when I looked this week?

We like to be ahead of the curve.

So what happens to the Trump administration ought to then roughly parallel the decline of Herbert Hoover, who was stuck holding the bag for the Great Depression, but (like Trump) had been a success in the private sector.

That, buddy, is where we flip out of the very last remnants of “virtuous cycle”  (quickly fading today) and we will roll into vicious cycle under which the worse it gets the more people pull in their horn and so the worse from even there it becomes.

By now you ought to be able to see the hand-writing (and hand-wringing) on the wall.  And why it’s more important for me to fix my riding mower than it is to wax on eloquently about how much the vicious cycle is going to hurt.

Still, in case you have a news addition that can’t be satisfied without solid data points,. here’s a summary of stinky-stank to roll your day with:

But Don’t Be Deceived!

When you read how the Fed raises rates, unveils balance sheet cuts in sign of confidence, the real reason is they know they need to get ready for the next mess to come down the pike.

And Don’t Be Deluded

BITCs are down to $2,458.  Who told you be on the lookout for a bubble high?  Maybe one more run to go but if you want to invest to slow-to-clear easily lost money substitutes, have you considered, oh, AIR?

Trump-bash du Jour

Source: Investigators for special counsel will soon speak to senior intelligence officials.

Play in Lieu of Work Dept:

Congressional baseball game will go on today in a call for bipartisan unity.  But speaking of which…

An Interesting Note from CNN

Story/op-ed here goes to the idea of the “return of leftist terrorism in America – since the shooter yesterday was 66 and hugely anti-Trump.

Is America Nearing Civil War?

A colleague (and famous writer) asked me the other day:  “Do you thing the Soros-backed demonstrations and mini-uprisings (he was referring to Ferguson and Baltimore and..) that got out of hand were really a BETA TEST for what will happen when the Greater Depression shows up and the PTB want to steal everything, go all electronic and force a publicly funded bail-in?”

I hated to admit it, but the idea could not be dismissed out of hand.

And then comes analysis from Warhammer:

War is more than bloodshed and destruction.  War is economic, political, ideological or military in nature.  All-out war involves all the aforementioned working in tandem.

It may be apparent to most of Ure readers that America is in the midst of a full-blown Ideological war.  No big deal, you say?  Well, actually, it probably is.  War is essentially a conflict of ideas, ideas which evolved out of major social movements.  Ideological wars thus often become physical ones – Oliver Cromwell’s English Civil War and France’s revolt against the crown are a few examples; the U.S. Civil War; the collective birth and spread of Fascism in Germany, Spain and Italy;  Lenin’s war against the Czar and his satellite bourgeoisie, followed by Stalin ruthlessly crushing all internal and external opposition; and the Ayatollahs winning the hearts, minds and souls of the Iranian people, exiling their American backed Shah in the late 1970s; all stand as testimony to ideas turning violent.

America is currently entrenched in a classic ideological war, pitting the conservative right against the progressive left.  The party presently in power, the conservative right, is under sociopolitical siege by the party voted out of power in the 2016 general election, the progressive left.  The right is largely in favor of, among other things, anti-globalist American exceptionalism, pro-business, anti-illegal immigration and anti-radical Islam.  The left is literally a coalition of the disaffected – LGBQT issues, Black Lives Matter, illegal immigrants, universal health care, environmentalism, aiding the habitually unemployed or low-income worker, and many, many more lesser constituents.

Opposition to conservatism is the primary cattle prod used to push together the coalition of the disaffected, a resistance that achieved unifying success through adhering to the dogma of Saul Alinsky.  Alinsky was a ‘60s apolitical American community organizer who started off by working in slum communities and representing the social rejects and have-nots.  A few of his more famous adherents include THE community organizer-in-chief, Barack Obama, former Secretary of State and FLOTUS Hillary Clinton and Weather Underground convicted bomber and long-time university professor Bill Ayers.   More on the education angle of the Alinsky left in a bit.

Trumps quite literally is the cattle prod unifying the coalition of the disaffected.  The ‘war against Trump’ is led by liberal progressives in government, prominent media members and, most significantly, the U.S. National Education Association.  The education union represents the vast majority of U.S. educators at all grade levels and is disproportionately progressive at the leadership levels.

Annual dues to the NEA average in the neighborhood of $500.  With over $3.2 million members, they pull in a ton of cash which is used to fund a number of social and political causes having little to do with the classroom.   Over 93% of the NEAs political contributions go to the Democratic party.  Over $80 million goes to leftist organizations.  The ideological war is a war for minds.  This war is being fought full force starting in our American classrooms and at the very earliest levels.

“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” ~ Thomas Jefferson

Back to community organizer Alinsky.  His famous Rules for Radicals expounds 13 tactics that have served as the rulebook for the coalition of the disaffected since the mid-1960s.  The NEA became increasingly populated by fervent followers of Alinsky, eventually steering the American education system to instill a more liberal view of history, social affairs, politics and science (global warming, anti-creationism, etc.) in the classroom curricula.  Prominent media members who grew up in the Alinsky/NEA indoctrinated education system, and many politicians and business leaders as well, are now in positions to dramatically affect policy and fine tune media content.  Today we can clearly see the ripples of Alinsky’s tactics turning into socio-political tidal waves that roll across America.

Trump stole the election from the Alinsky left with the help of Russia (see the last Alinsky rule below).  He stole it in the way he was able to bypass the dominant progressive communication network through the use of social media during his campaign.  He got his word out, uncensored, via Twitter, much to the dismay of the word twisting, progressive leaning mainstream media.   Trump’s Tweets also frustrated his more established GOP opposition, to the point where the media consistently covered only negative information about Trump, while Trump simply covered Trump directly to his growing number of Twitter followers.  The battle lines were quickly drawn for this battle in the ideological war – Fake News vs. unfiltered Twitter Trump.

Embedded within this nasty ideological war, we can saw many of Alinsky’s tactics being deployed consistently via liberal congressional statements and mainstream media reports.  In fact, many citizens are quite literally deadened to them only five months into Trump’s presidency, but the Alinsky drum continues to beat (and for good reason – it’s supposed to).  Every day we can see these Alinsky tactics at work around us:

  • Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules
  • Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon
  • Keep the pressure on
  • The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition (note the military-like terminology in bold here)
  • If you push a negative hard and deep enough, it will break through into its counter-side . . . every negative has a positive
  • Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it

With the American education system, the media, progressive politicians and the coalition of the disaffected all so totally permeated by the Alinsky philosophy, the conservative right will find it increasingly difficult to make political headway, let alone hold their own against the rising tidal wave of negative reporting and orchestrated social protest against Trump.  In a nutshell, the social and political terrain of America is shifting decidedly into territory the Founders hoped would never arrive.

“Real liberty is not found in the extremes of democracy, but in moderate governments. If we incline too much to democracy we shall soon shoot into a monarchy, or some other form of a dictatorship.”  ~ Alexander Hamilton

Mr. Hamilton might argue that the rise of Trump is simply a natural correction away from the progressive “extremes of democracy” and toward a more moderate government in terms of a fully function tri-cameral system of government composed of the Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches, each not exceeding their constitutional charters but ruling jointly by law ‘of, by and for the people.’

Following the shooting incident, warhammer added that the escalation is running much faster than he feared:

“It seems only a matter of time before the Red state Trump/GOP supporters start to respond in-kind.

Just my two cents, but the liberal MSM is complicit in this attack.  The haters are gonna hate, but it needs to stop there.  Some folks just can’t separate propaganda from reality.”

Ah, there’s the rub.  If they could, we would be a group of United States again…and that, boys and girls, hasn’t been the agenda since Obama and Bush before him…

Crap the Masquerades as News

Wait!

Did I say this would be a short report?  So sorry, lol.

Off to the undersides of the lawnmower, then.  This has been just way too much fun.

Now if I can only get done in time to buy a nice tradable low for the final run to insanity…

Coping: “As a Man Drinketh…”

Water, water, everywhere?

We need to have a discussion guided by the writings of Samuel Taylor Coleridge.  He’s the “old dead dude” who wrote in the Rime of the Ancient Mariner our theme for this morning:

“Water, water, everywhere, And all the boards did shrink; Water, water, everywhere, Nor any drop to drink.”

(continues)

What we ought to talk about is water – and the conspiracy to make it unaffordable at some point in the not-too-distant future.

So this buddy of mine (who’s a medical sort) has wisely followed the path from the cut-throat big city conformal-coated media masses and has a dandy home in an up-and-coming semi-rural area in south-central Washington State.

Here’s his concern:

George,

I came across a story for you. Okay, it jumped me when I wasn’t looking.

Back six years ago when I bought 15 acres near Goldendale, (Washington) wells were being drilled for $12-15 per foot. But my wife wasn’t excited about spending that money. When she relented over a year ago, we accepted a bid at $25/foot. We’re still waiting for the man to drill it. He’s not sure, but will try to get to it this year.

One of the other bidders, when I called him, said he has a backlog of 56 people at $36/foot. That is 3-4 years wait. The other bidder locally is booked for this season at $50-55/foot.

I called Portland/Vancouver drillers – too busy to work out their immediate area. I called Yakima drillers – same thing. I called Tri-city radioactive drillers – things are too hot for them already. 

How extensive is this well drilling shortage? Is it a nationally widespread phenomenon? What caused it? How does it affect property values? How does it affect people who want to escape to the sticks? “

Yessir, John has nailed it.  The problem is water is likely to become one of those “freedoms” that by the time Millennials are 50, they will only be able to look back and see (through the rearview mirror of time) how this most precious of freedoms disappeared.

I don’t know as I mention our “second Other” website often enough.  I’m sure you know where www.peoplenomics.com is – and that it focuses on making a buck (and except for a few wild hare trades in my hot money account) we do extremely well there.

But we have this other site – trademarked name and more – called www.ruralpioneer.com where you can find (among other things) articles written by Oilman2 and some of Elaine’s writings from years back.

Which has what to do with water?

Well, in a 2004 piece, Elaine was seriously questioning whether more people should be moving to the Denver area.  Just like the Goldendale area of Washington state, great place, but they have serious water issues.

Here’s what Elaine wrote about the history of the water wars back in 2004 – and this is worth knowing because it sets the stage for the kind of regulatory hijacking of landowner rights that is underway right now:

“Be prepared to invest in water.  In Colorado, water rights are property that can be bought, sold, or inherited. To understand the impact of this statement, let’s take a peek into Colorado’s history.

Many people taking a stab in striking it rich in Colorado in the 1840’s, were people that had turned to Colorado after the gold rush in California.  These early settlers brought with them the ideas used in California to settle arguments over land and eventually water.

Miner’s Courts were established as they were in California.  The theory behind the court system was if you were on the land first, it was your land or claim, and those following had no right to it. (Thus, first in time, first in right). The system was eventually transferred to water ownership disputes.  The first to use the water that was needed owns that amount of water, and the second one there gets what is left, if any.

With very little water available from rainfall, only 15 – 17 inches statewide, the snowmelt provides 80%, water had to be used directly from stream systems.  If the only persons allowed using such water were those next to the stream, very little land could be utilized for agricultural development.

However, economic conditions in the east eventually lead to a foreseeable profit in the growing of cash crops, if only more acreage could be developed.  Developers stepped in and began colonies to foster such acreage production.  These companies built canals from the mainstreams and gave a share of the water to farmers for irrigating acreage.

Using the concept the environment had to be taken into consideration when establishing any water allocation system, Colorado created the prior appropriation doctrine.  This legal system is peculiar to the western United States in response to the west’s inconvenient-scarce water resources.

The basic tenant of the Colorado appropriation system to be remembered is “first in time, first in right “. The “senior” or first person to appropriate water and apply that water to a beneficial use has the first right to use that water within a particular stream system.  The “senior” must then be satisfied before any other “junior” rights are fulfilled.

A drought during the 1800’s caused a war, the Water Wars of 1874, which eventually resulted in Article XVI of the Colorado Constitution enacted in 1876.

The Colorado Constitution recognize the “Water of every natural stream . . . is hereby declared to be the property of the public . . .” The Constitution and the

Courts recognize water rights are a right to use water, so long as water is put to a recognized beneficial use and water is available.  Anyone may go to water court and get a decreed right to use water.

In 1878 Major John Powell, in a federal report, warned of the need for careful development in the American southwest due to limited water supply.

In 1902 President Teddy Roosevelt whose view, water was “wasted” in the west (not put to good use) signed the Reclamation Act.  This Act created the Bureau of Reclamation whose goal was to subsidize irrigation to farmers and stimulate economic and population growth.

The very earliest transbasin diversions of water were for agricultural purposes, but water for municipalities followed soon thereafter.

When water is moved from one basin to another, courts may apply restrictive conditions.  For example, Denver may not use water for uses outside areas socially and economically integrated into the city, and is limited to municipal uses.”

And now we can zip forward to present day.

Anyone who is smart (which includes all of our readers and John in particular) will have their antennae up for the “next big government grab.”

We can name at least two that are in plain sight:  One is the government’s asserting that IT ALONE has the right to allocate water.  That’s why, when we moved to Texas, the first thing we did was to recover an old well and get it back into minimal production, as well as drill an additional well (before regulators when crazy) and then we decided that as part of our wildly overdone prepping efforts, we would also hang on to our old Hydro-Drill well drilling rig.

They are still being made today.  We bought ours used for $600 and the new rigs today are going for a LOT more.

You can find Hydra-Drill information on a unit like ours (good for 200+ feet) over here.  And some of their tower-type units will do 300+_feet.  (Like this one).

The main thing that I found a drawback when we were recovering our well was that the Hydra-Drill didn’t have an Oilman2 engineered bit on it.  They used (at the time) a simple spade bit.  Picture a flat-head screw driver with carbide edges on it.

Here’s a short video on what the process looks like:  You will need a Hydra-Drill and a 3-5 HP waste water pump.  This shoves drilling water down the drill pipe.  At the bottom, the return (up pressure) brings the cut material up…so you need to dig about a 500 gallon waste water pit which can be filled back in after the drilling.

Piece of cake, right?

In Washington State, it is. They have a well-drilling exemption for small wells:

The only exceptions to the permit requirement is for withdrawals of groundwater for:

  • Providing water for livestock (no gallon per day limit).
  • Watering a non-commercial lawn or garden one-half acre in size or less (no gallon per day limit, however limited to reasonable use).
  • Providing water for a single home or groups of homes (limited to 5,000 gallons per day).
  • Providing water for industrial purposes, including irrigation (limited to 5,000 gallons per day but no acre limit).

In the other hand, in other states the noose is slowly tightening.  Take Oregon, for example:

“The 2009 Legislature passed  Senate Bill 788 which introduced new requirements when completing a well for exempt use.  There is now a requirement to submit a map and submit a $300.00 per well recording fee.”

In  Texas, the Groundwater Protection Committee website admits “Private wells do not serve public water supply systems and are largely unregulated. For domestic water well owners there are no federal or state requirements for monitoring drinking water quality as there are for public water supply systems…”  So we are good – for now – as we are likely to put in two or three more wells.

At least one of our planned wells down here (at the ranch) will be a special purpose well.  What I’m looking at is putting in a deep hole with 1″ or better copper and a circulating pump and then using circulating cold water (from down hole) to chill my office.

At the same time, since there is so darn much ham radio gear here, the down (and up) hole lines will constitute a Tesla-like extremely deep Earth ground so we can move on with transverse wave antenna experiments.

Unfortunately, for people in Colorado, well drilling gets incredibly complicated.  Just the online instructions for the permit application (here) will keep you busy for hours.  But then so will New Mexico which pointedly announces that “Anyone wanting to use water in New Mexico must have a permit from the State Engineer that can be obtained by contacting your local District Office.”

This is a lot of information…so at some point we need to pause and get on with the day.

So how about this for a summary:

We don’t see too many hurdles to John’s well question if a) he does it himself and b) if he can hit water reliably down 300 feet, or so.  A good guide here would be checking with neighbors to see how far down their wells had to sink before hitting good water.  If it’s less than 300 feet (like it is around here) no sweat.

But if there’s a lot of hard rock to be drilled, then commercial drillers and “getting on the schedule” may be the thing.

Drillers are usually busiest when the economy is booming and new homes are going into an area.  Perhaps waiting a few months – the PNW real estate market is halfway between bazitzu and nuts right now – and trying again would be a path.  Or, if shallow works, I know this major who is available for rent and is allegedly trainable.

Either way, though, we would lock up a working well sooner than later.  Like our installation of cogenerating solar, we view the money we have now – and will likely spend in the future on well drilling to be money well-spent.

The cost of operating your own well is likely on the order of half what the public rural water outfits will want.  But there’s a trade off in testing, repairs, and ongoing testing to be done.

But trust me, we feel the pain.  And we reckon that the same forces that are trying to stampede the world into a global climate tax will then lead a charge to capture private water production and they’ll wrap it up as necessary “for the public good.”

Good, that is, to them’s on the top, not the rest of us’n’s down the food chain.

But you-know-what always rolls down hill, then, yeah?

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

Rethinking How “News” is Organized

Heady topic this morning as we take off down a different rabbit hole.  We’re going to “re-cast the news” and get rid of some of the shrill.

As you know the term “fake news” has become quite popular lately, but as we shall demonstrate (complete with a class project and new website  as time permits) there’s a chance that how America looks at “the news”: may be seriously screwed up.  No, make that pretty sure…

Since we live in a country where monetizing our problems is a way of life…let’s see if we can’t make a business model that will serve the needs of the nonpartisan middle a bit better, shall we?

More for Subscribers       ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW!       |||   Subscriber Help Center

Bitcoin Over? Options Reveal Fall

A lot of so-called futurists are out on statistical limbs once again, prediction five-digit highs for BTCs and much more.  We also have the usual herd of newsletter writers (some claiming past work with government agencies) making lots of other projections about where markets will head next.

Around here, we tend to sit back and use a computational future approach to such problems.  Not that a computational approach always works, but “rules of thumb” don’t show up in colloquial speech because they are wrong.  There’s usually some truth to them.

So here we have two to consider:  What’s ahead for the market this fall and what’s ahead for Bitcoins.

(continues)

 

With regard to the market, we should be about to resume a large upward move that should last until August 21-24.  This would put us in an ideal position to replay the 1929 market debacle suffered by Herbert Hoover, who we know in present day to have Donald Trump reprising the role in the Great Rhyme of History.

One of the problems with seeing a change of topology – because what we’re talking about here is a computational future – is that the really important data is hard to aggregate.

It’s not unlike the problem of trying to map brain function, over time, in order to fully comprehend the psychological topology of individual thought.

In the case of the brain, we know that at a given age, a person may have an IQ of 100.  But despite this being the dead-center of the Gaussian distribution/Bell Curve of the IQ distribution of the general population (genpop) the problem is that there is much to be learned by digging deeper into how the person’s brain works.

One subject (score: 100) may have done exceptionally well in math and physics, logic, and chemistry, for example.  At the same time, however, they may have sucked at English.

What I observed as a vocational college president, was that despite norming at average, people with “average” numbers in an overall sense were usually quite gifted in another.

A second subject (also score: 100) might have done miserably at math, no idea that f=ma, but may have aced the portions of the test dealing with language, art, English, and they might even remember what iambic pentameter is.  Pity those who think metrical lines are made of blow…but I digress.

The point is we have two exceptional people and yet they come out rather average when measured by the currently inadequate sampling tools.

The stock market is much the same way.  When you know where to look – and do so over time – certain well-formed inferences made be made.

The problem (and we get into this kind of realm on our Peoplenomics.com site now and then) is that it’s damn difficult to find repositories where you can actually download option prices over time.

Oh, sure, you can log into your trading platform and see what a September 2017 2400 put option cost as of the close Monday.

But how does that cost per contract compare with a week ago?  Then last month?  And so forth.

What many of us small-time players end up doing is keeping a spreadsheet that might look like this:

You can see what we’ve got here:  When we keep an eye on the December 2400 S&P put options (*strikes) we see that they hit a low price on June 8th.  They have been rising since. $7,010 to $7,788

This is not trivial:  And 11 percent price change in less than a week always gets our attention while we’re laboriously spending afternoons punching quotes after the close into our various financial grimoires.  (Open sesame!  And the .xls open!)

There are likely to be concurrent indicators of a passing peak.  And this gets us to the BTC pricing.  Using another one of our computational tools from the Peoplenomics side, and eyeballing a first wave up (in Elliott terms) to the current process, we have a possible ending range to consider that looks like this:

This is why I am not in a big hurry to run out and throw money willy-nilly at Bitcoins or any other Crypto.

They should come down and as they do, another wave will become measurable (once a bottom is in) and we will then be able to predict a more accurate long-term high.

Which has what to do with today?

Well, I trust you saw my note Monday that I blew out of my short-side play in the market.  When the Fed makes the rate announcement tomorrow, we will likely use the reaction.

I have to credit long time colleague Rick Ackerman ( http://www.rickackerman.com/lp/RicksPicks/ ) with observing that when the Fed FOMC makes it announcement, the market usually reacts in three stages.

Immediately, there is a small to medium move in the direction things will really go longer-term.

Then, there will be a pullback as the risk-averse rich – having seen the directional signal – will beat down prices and will make their entry some minutes after the FOMC statement.

Finally, the market gets going in the direction it will really go.

Armed with these simple tools, we could go on all morning about how the market could go down if the Fed fails to raise.  Reason?  That would admit that the economic data is not so strong, after all.  On the other side, a raise means all it well, let’s all go pile in and run it up to my target levels in mid to late August.

That will set the stage for the collapse in the fall and that’s likely to come with a fall crisis in confidence that the Special Prosecutor of Donald Trump is likely to deliver.

The bigger rhyme of history, you see, if for Trump to reprise the role of Hoover for the rest of his term.  Instead of the Bonus March Hoover suffered through, we will have the massive (left/democrat gov’t in exile orchestrated) benefits demonstrations this fall in DC.

And then the market will crash, realizing that with zero real growth, the economy will have arrived at the tail-end of the Roaring Twenties replay.

I’m not the only one saying this…and no, it doesn’t take oodles of computational horsepower to figure it out.  Just a little hard work.

And example may be found in what Morningside-Hill capital released earlier this month:  They revealed that 93% of all job “growth” since 2008 has been “made up” by the Labor Department’s CES Birth-Death Model, something we diligently cover when it comes out for precisely this reason.

SpottMoney has a dandy summary of how it lays out over here…and yes, SprottMoney is worth bookmarking which is more than I can say for the political media in this country.

On the other hand, “US recession remote in next 12 months: Deutsche Bank.”  Will this turn into the analog of this famous gaffe:

“There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.” – Irving Fisher, Leading U.S. Economist, New York Times (Sept. 5, 1929)

So we shall watch, run the numbers and have more for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow.

Fire Mueller?

Let me see:  Hiring a bunch of democrat contributors and Hillary/Obama supporters…yeah, that’d be a reason.

We see that a Trump friend floats possibility of firing special counsel in Russian probe…but can he?

And then we have Jeff Sessions today on Russia and Comey – live stream may be here.

I don’t know about you, but seems to me we’re on the verge of renaming Washington D.C. something more appropriate:

Salem.

Democrat Loaded 9th Circuit Bans Ban

I don’t know if you realize this, but 27 of the 43 judges of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals were appointed by democrat presidents.

So it is less than surprising that the Trump Travel ban was turned down and will now head for the US Supreme Court.

In response, His Twitterness offered “Well, as predicted, the 9th Circuit did it again – Ruled against the TRAVEL BAN at such a dangerous time in the history of our country. S.C..”

Meantime, if (God forbid) we get an airliner blown out of the sky by terrorist elements that would be stopped by the proposed ban, will we see the media honestly report “Democrat immigration push kills first planeload?

Hmmm…I sort of doubt it.

Producer Prices Flat

Hand me the press release ju jour, please?

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.5 percent in April and edged down 0.1 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in May.

Within final demand in May, a 0.3-percent increase in the index for final demand services offset a 0.5-percent decline in prices for final demand goods.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services fell 0.1 percent in May, the first decline since a similar 0.1-percent decrease in May 2016. For the 12 months ended May 2017, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.1 percent.

Final Demand

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services rose 0.3 percent in May following a 0.4-percent advance in April. The May increase can be attributed to the index for final demand trade
services, which moved up 1.1 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by
wholesalers and retailers.) In contrast, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing fell 0.1 percent, and the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services declined 0.5 percent.

Against this backdrop Dow futures are up 26 and NASDAQ futures are up 24-ish.

Turned out to be a good call (for now) to get out of the short.  More on the use of the mid-channel trend line for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow.

Our usual fun and frivolity back here Thursday morning, although we may post the FOMC Statement tomorrow with a few remarks…

Off to a tooth cleaning.  As Jumping Jack Flash puts it, “It’s a gas, gas…” has…

Coping: Hypno-peripheral What?

Oh, boy…this will be complicated, but follow along.

As you may know, I have been working on increasing my PK ability in order to do a little better at gambling.

And this led to this really interesting book about gaming and learning how to rock the house.

(continues)

But where the book got interesting was when I came across a mention of something called Hypno Peripheral Programming.

Remember last week when we were talking about that “moment of knowing” which way a bet would go as soon as the decision was made?

A fellow named Lloyd Glauberman came up with a method about 15-years ago to retrain the brain and mind to work better…and the way he did this was to (essentially) play different stereo sounds into the right and left ear.

There might be a story in the left ear about the wild west and a fairytale going on in the right eat at the same time.

This forces the mind to…well, go read that gambling book I think I gave you the title of.

Then, if you want to try it out, order the CD from Amazon called “Personal Ecology: The Complete Self-Esteem Program.”

It will set you back $25 bucks,

A bit more background now:

I was sitting here thinking (last week) after reading up on how hypno peripheral programming (HPP) works, and it struck me that must be one of the reasons that my brain works a little (OK, as LOT) differently than most peoples.

So I happened to be listening to some music by Walt Wagner (hell of a story which I will get to in a minute) and suddenly IT CLICKED.

If you really want to advance, try HPP C Ds.  If you want to encourage someone to advance, play them some classical music.

But not just any music.

It should (*after Glauberman’s work) be music heard on at least two levels.

When you can follow music on two levels (main melody and a counter-melody) and track each instrument, I believe it changes something in your brain.

Now a story from the Olde Newsman.

When I was news director of KOL in Seattle, a new building went up called the Rainer Bank Building.  Unusual piece of architecture.

A buddy of mine (Pete D who still owns a highly successful PR firm in Seattle) called me up and said “Need a voiceover – want to do one for Rainer Bank?”

“Oh sure…”

“You’ll be working with this great – incredible musician…a guy named Walt Wagner…ever hear of him?”

If it wasn’t the Stones or Beatles or some of the jazz Sonny Buxton featured on his Jazz Unlimited shows on Sundays at KYAC back in the day, I would never have had a clue.

Nonetheless, I showed up at the recording studio chosen, walked in, laid down the voice track and listened to Walt Wagner make up, totally on the fly it seemed, a mind-boggling EXTRAORDINARY PIECE OF MUSIC.

All 22 -minutes worth.

It was one of those voice-over sessions where I should have paid for the privilege of being there.

Wagner is a genius of mixing jazz and classical composition. I wish I could find his Sun Valley jazz album…

And so this morning, a very short discussion.  Instead of the usual verbosity, we will do homework this morning.

Go listen to The Miracle – 4th Movement (Vivo) , Fulfillment by the aforementioned Walt Wagner with Gerard Schwarz and the Seattle Symphony Orchestra.  It’s on YouTube here:

The assignment is simple.

Listen twice.  Once for main melody and then once for counter-melodies. Third time to figure out how one piano player can be that good…

And so, I think anyway, I may have found a “bridge concept” between superb music and an advanced form of mind-improvement which hypno peripheral programming seems to be.

Oh, and it’s OK to find more music like this.  And ponder if the gap between generations might be accentuated by the lack of multi-level thematics in contemporary music?

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

Out of Short Position

More on  this tomorrow but action in the bond market seems to support the view that a further decline – while possible – may not be in the cards.  Accordingly, I closed out my short position having made enough money for a (cheap) dinner and a movie, lol.

This is NOT investment advice, but rather an answer to the question we asked last week “Do we shoot fish or do the fish shoot back??  Today, we sniped a few herring and got out with a tiny gain.

Markets Peaking? Don’t Try This At Home, Kids

A lot of people spend inordinate amounts of time worrying about “conventional” prepping.  And while that is often a good thing, it can also be one huge distraction that will keep you from making maximum money in this lifetime…

Last week I posted my latest stock trade publicly – something I don’t usually do.  You can find it in “Like Shooting Fish, Or Do Fish Shoot Back…” over here.

This morning – with the Dow futures pointing down 33 when I looked, but more importantly the NASDAQ Composite looking to open down another 50 points, we might just come up with “lunch money” on this trade, after all.

(continues)

 

Don’t misunderstand:  I don’t post my personal trades *(just after I have done them) very often.  I don’t want to be accused of using my (tiny, nearly insignificant) website to move markets.  And although there are plenty of specific stocks where I think I might be able to score twice as much of a return, by trading a a widely held index fund the odds of me trading on “inside information” (remember they got Martha Stewart?) are absolutely zero.

The chance to share some insights into how well some of our Peoplenomoics.com subscribers are doing is also not the point.

Rather, the whole point right now is to document for years-hence how we were playing the long-term stock market top that seems to be at hand based on Long Wave Economics.

Why this discussion this morning?  Well, if the market rolls down this afternoon (or in the pre-open tomorrow like -150 or more) we will likely post a “Coping” section here, but we owe our best efforts to Peoplenomics subscribers so we may have another Peoplenomics-only report, but that’s totally dependent on how the market rolls out.

Ideally?

Here’s the wet dream for this week (given my trade that came into view last week).

You know the Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets beginning tomorrow and will make a rate decision Wednesday, right?

If you were some of those NE liberals with more money than sense, how would you try to “scare the Fed” right now?

Simple:

You would begin last week by dropping the NASDAQ 113 points.  And then you’d drop it another 50 this morning.  Maybe a a fair bit more tomorrow, we’ll see on that point.

But you’d leave the Dow seemingly unphased.

Here’s what I’d do next:  I would let the Dow collapse in a heap this afternoon and tomorrow.  If it drops as much as the NASDAQ, which seems to pencil out to about a 500 point-ish drop, don’t you think THAT would get the Fed’s attention?

Naturally, the market doesn’t “think” in such explicit terms.  Nor, when comes down to it, does the Market have little “stories” like the one I just laid out.

Instead, there needs to be a patsy…some “reason” that will drive the markets.

To be sure, the markets are not sure what to do since James (slippery lips) Comey didn’t offer a smoking gun to either side int his Trumpstimony last week….and sure, markets around the world are nervous, but is that enough to lay a 400-500 point turd on the desk of the FOMC?

No.

But we should mention that both Germany and France were down 1% when we checked this morning.

Oh, and there is a technical count (channels and Elliott) that suggests the top may be in on BitcoinsSee the chart here and put on some of that nail-biting goo before you look, kiddies.

This is the first (and most important) thing I wanted to lay out for you.  the FOMC is meeting.  The NE media Trump slams are no longer having much effect, and oh, yeah, go look at the Fed Money Stocks report for last week over here.  We won’t do any coaching, but we will offer that you can only b low a balloon up just so far.  Then it’s time to let a little air out.

While you’re sniffing around the Fed site, drop by the Consumer Debt numbers and notice that consumer debt increased only 2.6% in April.

Since markets run of future prospects, as much as current P&L reality, this also hints that some downward adjustment in forward optimism in the markets may be justified.

The Weak Ahead

In the spirit of “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” then, let’s see if we can play “Pin the Drop on the Data” this week, shall we?

With Germany, France, and the Hang Seng all down 1% overnight, obviously a global crisis in confidence might be seen today.

But that wouldn’t explain the Dow collapsing several hundred points, if it does.  So we’d have to inspect the Treasury budget which will be out at 2 PM eastern today.

Tomorrow the field of prospects widens.  Producer Prices could do something unexpected.  Or, William Dudley – scheduled to speak.

This one is significant to us:  We wonder Why would the NY Fed Chief skip[ out on the FOMC meeting to talk about prudential bank risk?

Unless – and this is the $10-trillion dollar question – he has Big Worries about one or more Big Banks.  I mean come on, think about what his taking time out of the FOMC tells us!

Wednesday morning, prior to the Fed decision would also work for a fair shake-up in markets and the leading candidate there will be the Consumer Price report.  A sudden lurch upward of core inflation (inflation less food and energy, which is truly one of the stupidest policy ideas ever – like people don’t eat and buy gas) might do it.

Or, Retail Sales (due out about the same time) could his the “royal flush” and since we already know Consumer Debt started dialing it back in April, a continuation in May – as indicated by the Retail Fails possibility – would certainly be fun, sport, and amusement for those of us holding short side positions.

Again, ideally, the decline here could be large enough to be “concerning” if the Dow synch’s up on the NASDAQ.  Sure, it could go the other way and the techs could come roaring back.

While we could natter on endlessly about <Mainstream Media Idiocy> we prefer, instead, to focus on the one variable that matters.

How to recharge our checking account once the quarter IRS payment leaves here on Wednesday.  *Scroll down to June 15th here for details.

Do we care if Ivanka is talking on blah-blah?  Nope.

Do we care about Conway?  Nope.

Kushner?  Nope?

Or, for that matter, the government in exile’s bid in “D.C. and Maryland to sue President Trump, alleging breach of constitutional oath…”

At some point, perhaps the rest of people out here in fly-over country will see it as clearly as we do:  The snot-for-brains Trump haters have denied the rest of us a working president through their endless (government in exile orchestrated hate campaigns) so when the economy really crashes later this year, I will hark back to what I am telling you this morning:

The Left and Democrats are trying to crash not only Trump but the Whole Economy.  It shouldn’t be too hard – just look how the idea worked on Herbert Hoover going into the last Depression.

So what happens next?  Do we get a Franklin Roosevelt clone to come in and take five terms in office?

My money right now is on Obama returning to run against Trump – remember he’s a constitutional lawyer (not sure which country though, lol) and I’m sure he will find the necessary loophole or run Michelle) or some newly discovered socialist who can be preened and sold to the sheep in 2020 and maybe it will be from the new flock coming up in the congressional elections next year.

Maybe – just maybe – there is another future out there.

The NASA discovery of 10 nearby orbiting asteroid problems is certainly one option.

Welcome Puerto Rico!

We may get a 51st state yet.

After that, how about we invite Mexico and Canada to join?

Not that we need to, but think of the economic opportunities that selling French Street Signs in Sinaloa would bring to the world!  And Spanish government documents for Quebec?  OMG, this is a YUGE business model just waiting to happen.

Whew.  I better take some meds and calm down.

I’m hoping to have a hard couple of days ahead – counting money.  Watching BTC pricing for clues of the fever breaking.

But never forget the late Martin Zweig’s advice:  “Never fight the Fed.”

We shall see…the tape-painters are out in force trying to put lipstick on the overhanging Dow…

Coping: With Aviation, Weakly

This being a Monday and all, no point in getting too serious yet about all the nonsense and foolishness around the world.

Instead, let’s talk about Airplanes and Ham Radio.

Far more interesting pastimes that simply trading stocks and making money.  Besides, you can’t trade markets on the weekend.

(continues)

The first note is about aircraft registration and licensing.

You remember Elaine and I sold our beloved N7912L back in February, right?

Well, the new owner STILL hasn’t received his signed off new certificate of registration from the FAA.

Why?

Well, after talking with the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) I was advised that the registration branch up in Oklahoma City is totally buried.

In paperwork for airplane sales?  Are things that brisk?  Are people waking up to the Pilot Shortage?

Well, no.  People are slow.

Turns out, we’re advised, that there is a horrible onslaught of drone registrations.

Thousands upon thousands are pouring in.

And that gets us to a comment sent in by our favorite liberal Jon, who was on the way to evolving some consensus that a Canadian-like not-for-profit air traffic system might be workable.  I halfhearted agreed.

Until late last week, that is, when email from a long-term subscriber showed up…a fellow who retired as a “highly placed” official in FAA ATC  (air traffic control) operations.  His comments should weight heavily on all those who would get the FAA out of this part of slight safety…

“Damn!!! I’ve been quite busy lately with honey-do’s and some unexpected car stuff and missed the conversation a few days ago (June 6) about the proposal to privatize FAA ATC (in reality called the ATO). Odd thing though: with this issue alone, I agree with Jon – (the horror!) and sort of disagree with WarHammer. Up is down, left is right, in is out….

As a retired career ATC insider at all FAA levels (all except for the politically appointed SES level), all I’ll say in public is that even if the current proposal may have pure intentions, it doesn’t make sense from a “where the rubber meets the road” perspective. Nor does it make sense from a technological perspective (believe that or not).

Going quasi-private or fully private and expecting that to speed up implementation of NextGen or any other big change is a dream – it will take longer. Naturally the contractors that may stand to grab parts of a new contract won’t say that in public and will blitz public thought to push for it.

Expecting to take 17K plus ATC-ers and supes (likely more by now) into the private sector and still see the capacity we currently have is also a dream. Even if the government was able to convince NATCA (the controllers union) that their current workforce’s pay and benefits would remain the same, any new folks would not remain happy for long. Even in a mostly automated ATC environment, controllers have a huge impact upon system capacity with every aircraft to which they provide service. Not saying new controllers under this proposal would necessarily “sabotage” the system, but for many realistic reasons they would actually reduce capacity. That would NOT be totally as a result of politics or technology interface, but other more basic reasons too numerous to talk to here.

The reasons for both above are not immediately obvious to outsiders and I’m not sure they can be explained well enough for even someone with an IFR rating to appreciate, so I’m simply generalizing to the extreme here.

Also of note is that in the first year or two of Clinton’s term, there were 4 or 5 similar proposals that were all shot down (no pun intended) quickly and never recovered because the rationale for those bills were all unsound. The reasons they did not get past Committee remain valid to this day and this proposal is no different. I’m speaking from the perspective of someone involved with analyzing them at the proposal stage.

All that said, I’d be a fool to predict this will be shot down (due to the different political climate), and because some tweaked version might be successful. I truly hope not. Safety would not necessarily be impacted but capacity would without a doubt decrease or become static over time.

Iterative progress toward something other than the current technological and human asset paradigm is needed for the future, but something as simplistic as taking the ATO and changing its ownership is a flimsy solution to a myriad of issues that need addressing. Being able to tout a “space-based system” sounds sexy, but in reality it has just as many flaws and vulnerabilities as a ground based system – just different issues. Scale is important! I’d go as far to say that to do it right and to at least retain today’s safety and reliability issues, one needs both running in parallel – and without a US national budget level no company out there could keep that going, much less implement it.

So in the end, while no one knows what will become of this proposal, as far as the ATO portion of it, there is no real long term benefit in the proposal  – and that comes from a life-long FAA manager and an Independent voter that leans to the right.=”

Where this LT subscriber (and a sterling fellow) and Jon might be able to find some common ground would be in rolling the ATC system over to a 95% artificial intelligence and automated system.  But only to a point.  Like nuclear weapons, there’s still a lot of merit in keeping humans in the loop.

Look at some of the benefits that a mix of SIVR (speaker-independent voice recognition) would have on a human-intensive project like IFR (instrument flight rule)_ clearance issuance and read-back.  A lot of time, this is “approved as filed” but oftentimes not and then you’re talking humans.

With the advent of RVSM (reduced vertical separation minimums) the effective capacity of “the sky” was probably increased on the order of 75%, but that just means more loads on the controllers…

When an aircraft comes into a busy city like Seattle, as we’ve done on a number of trips up north, using VFR flight following (essentially IFR without a flight plan in some ways and definitely the only way to safely cross-country) the hand-off from the regional Center to Seattle Approach  goes smooth as silk.

When we didn’t get onboard with ATC right after takeoff, like going down to drop my son off at Skydive Spaceland (southwest of Houston) you get into the drill of checking in at the 30-mile Mode C veil and then having to explain who you are (aircraft tail and type), set up a transponder code (“12 Lima squawk 5316…”) and then do the altimeter (“Houston altimeter 30.13”  “12 Lima roger 30.13 on the meter…”  This is best done right after takeoff from your first airport of the day before you get into Bravo (the grown-up busy) airspace.

Just handling a dozen or two light aircraft (did I say just?), a mix of helicopter traffic, and half a dozen business jets, plus the regular jet traffic in and outbound from the big commercial airports around Houston and wait…is everyone around the jump zone aware that Spaceland has jumpers-away in 3 minutes?

Yeah, the point about transitioning to a private contractor is YUGE…so yeah, expediting the transition to NextGen and then adding the AI layer – in initially as the “electronic supervisor backup” and then rolling more workload on as the software “learns” the airspace…that makes sense.  It will also take 10-20 years.

It’s like Cat-IIIc landings.  Under which properly equipped aircraft will be able to effectively self-land…But don’t get me wrong, Cat-IIIb with a runway visual range of 150 feet is damn near there now.  I mean assuming you have an HGS equipped plane…and if you don’t already know that’s a Head-up Guidance System for flying the approach, just return to your seat, fasten your safety belt and we’ll get back to more plebian content  shortly… Or you can go read in depth here about the different checklists by category…

Now that we have been schooled (and don’t look now, but I think our friend flying the C-17s is flying the .mil equivalent of Cat IIIb) I’m thinking deeper on the privatization problem and I’ll go with whatever the Center boss advises.

The old saying in aviation?  Never argue with the tower…simply say “Unable” and await their next move.

“You Talk to Japan on That?”

Oh, sure. 740 feet of very smart wire:

Just wanted to point out to our friends at the local ham raddidio club that new thing on the bottom of the top balun is a line isolator from Maxcon Antennas.  http://www.maxconus.com/maxcon_1_004.htm

For $40 bucks, it keeps all the RF off the feedline for me and works spiffy.

I will be ordering a second one for the other low band antenna shortly.  Works perfect.

More as I have time to play with it.  But at 8 AM (Texas time) last Thursday worked 7N1PRD/0 – a ham radio club in Japan on 20 meters and the massive longwire was as good as the beam on the tower…which is going a fair piece.

Other ham radio note:  About to kick off the Hallicrafters restoration project.  The manufacturer is set to deliver a new 4-16 henry swinging choke for the HV power supply in the HT-45 linear this week…so fingers crossed on that.

OK, time to hit and git…

You have to go to work, and I have to tune around the bottom end of the 20 meter band and see what’s coming in from Asia…

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net