Sound Money is NOT an Option

Ah, we expect the Dow to fall a hundred, or more, before the smoke clears today.  The reason, simply enough is the Federal Reserve decision to stay the course of cheap money:

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

The problem we have is pretty simple:  The government is doing everything it can to hold up markets going into next week’s election.

But the bigger issue is the Dual Mandate of the Federal Reserve.  You see, maintaining the quality of the US dollar is not something the Fed is really interested in.  Their “dual mandate” is maximum employment and, at the same time, a target inflation rate of 2%.

No mention of a solid buck.  And it’s a fine example of how national policy runs about 5-10-years behind the REAL economic problems facing America.

What’s that?”

Oh, the fact that we will have structural employment in the 30-40% unemployed range by 2025 because of robotics.

The arrival of robots to be bellmen in hotels, the self-driving veh8icvles that can wipe out truck drivers…oh the list is going every day.  Even the fast food jobs are going away as Momentum Machines replaces the whole back-end of fast food with smart automation.  They call it the “next industrial revolution” – which is far more transparency than we are seeing from government on point.

Yet even as Google has announced that it will have a machine capable of programming itself (which will make computer programmers OBO’s, too) we see the Fed is focused on a problem that doesn’t have a solution; at least with the current economic paradigm.

Sound money is not an option.  And you know why?

Because sound thinking is not an option in today’s politically appointed world.

The good news is that we get to vote next Tuesday.  The bad news is we get to vote from on a slate of political hacks who don’t have a clue, save a few first-timers in local politics. But get up the food chain a ways?

No one sees what’s coming and so we stumble into the future blind.

While the idiocracy of the democraps and republicons keeps America divided, the real vote Tuesday isn’t even on the ballot.  The vote is a choice between two corrupt parties that can’t articulate a future except the one bought by campaign contributions from corporate interests that swamp the meaningful concerns and input of the general public.

Election  Influencing Plans

Speaking of which, we have to point out the problem of the Council of La Raza.  They are promoting the Washington Post’s recent guide to where to vote where you won’t need voter ID.

By breaking un-American activities up into “legal” bites, the forces tearing apart America will no doubt escape being called out, let alone indicted. 

It’s the modern pattern of corruption, you see:  A move here, another move there, yet the aggregate result would in an earlier period of history be labeled treason.

Just like cash may not change hands from lobbyists, but “grassroots” rallies get organized on cue, and so forth.  “Workers” and “nursing home residents.”  I’ve seen it first-hand.

I, for one, think that the same care should go into voting that goes into riding on a commercial airline flight:  Ticket (voter registration) and a government issued photo ID. 

Yet while the Libs don’t have a problem with airport security, they do, it seems, with something just as central to our national security.  Either I missed something or (perish the thought) they did.

More after this…


New GDP Figures

Just out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.6 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and “Comparisons of Revisions to GDP” on page 5).

The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 25, 2014. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment.

Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The deceleration in the percent change in real GDP reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and decelerations in PCE, in nonresidential fixed investment, in exports, in state and local government spending, and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downturn in imports and an upturn in federal government spending.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the second. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent.

The two highlighted areas tell the story:  The economy is cooling – again.  Down more than one percent on an annual run rate basis.

But of course, no one will think this through before Tuesday…but there’s the data for you to consider.

Dow futures were down about 50 after the release.

Ebola:  National Schizophrenia

As soon as we get past elections, look for the pols within FedGov to come clean on the risks attendant to Ebola and a lot of other problems.

We already see the candor increasing with works from CDC on the dangers of sneezing out this morning.

Meantime, the rattle-trap of public policy continues unwinding:  The US is still going with open borders, while Australia is not.  Regular civilians can return unhindered and minor tested from West Africa, but US dot-mils are going to a 21-day chill in Italy.

That sets off alarm bells as “asymmetric policy.”

Meantime one of those “stories from the Beltway” comes along from our ex-war gamer pal warhammer:

George,

I was having lunch with several folks from the DC beltway area yesterday, and the ‘E’ word came up. 

One guy made the analogy to World War Z, the book and Brad Pitt movie regarding how various nations are handling the reported outbreak, except the “S2 – speed of spread” was entirely too slow.  Another gentleman calmly sipped from his beer – yes, a very beery lunch J – until he was asked what his thoughts were.

He replied with two words:  “False flag.”

Oh, he didn’t deny that there was a spread of the contagion, or that lives were in danger.  He simply, logically stated that the number of outbreaks, means and speed of transmission did not require the local, state, federal and international response currently underway.

My response?  “Why do you think it’s a false flag?”

His answer:  “Control.”  Injecting federal and military personnel into the Ebola equation gives those in control ‘more’ control.  “Control of the media.  Control of the players [medical and military].”

His response, while unexpected, was entirely plausible and fairly logical.  He admitted later in the conversation that the theory was not his – he heard it on a television talk show between some panelists discussing WW-E and, he said, “it made sense.”

He certainly got me thinking, particularly about all those ‘to be’ quarantined military members sent to front lines of WW-E.  They’ll literally be off the map for 21 days.  If the false flag theory is correct, that’s three weeks for somewhere between 1,000 to 4,000 troops to disappear without a peep because they are officially “quarantined.”   According to new releases, most of these WW-E front-liners belong to the 501st Aviation Regiment, part of the Combat Aviation Brigade which is attached to the 1st Armored Division.  Simply put, they are a ‘combat’ unit with a standard medical support contingent, not a specialized medical or humanitarian assistance unit.  They are trained to fight and kill the enemy, not Ebola or any other pathogen. 

1-4,000 highly trained warriors sealed away, unreachable and untouchable for three entire weeks.  Put that in your pipe and slowly toke on it while imagining all the various Tom Clancy type scenarios that could ensue!  Not saying that’s how it is or how it will be.  I’m just sayin’!

Cheers,

If any of the events surrounding Ebola make more sense than this, please raise your hand.  Or, better, write it up and send it along.  Ebola is not contagious via email.

Once the demos win “unexpectedly” Tuesday and the market collapse begins…well, let’s wait on events, shall we?

The EU is trying to still Russia on gas payments on behalf of Ukraine….Warvember?

 

Short column this morning due to my practicing up for daylight savings time (in coping section, following).  If you care that the Giants won and that tomorrow is Halloween, you’re still living in the media bubble.  Good luck getting over it…recovery is possible, but it will leave you cynical and somewhat depressed.

Think of it like waking up every morning and realizing that you live on a feedlot…

Coping: With Made Up Time, A New Industry Proposed

There is something that strikes me as sinister – conspiratorial if you wish – about Daylight Savings Time. 

This weekend, as you know, we are “falling back” – such that on Sunday morning at 2 AM it will instantly become 1 AM and we will be back on Standard Time. 

It’s one of the few nights during the year that being a barkeeper would be a problem – and then, only in a few states.  But would you close at the first 2 AM or the second?

And might it also be a window during which police officers would be particularly diligent, as well?  “Suspect crawled out of the window carrying the stolen goods at 1:33 AM (the second one).”

Or, consider the problems of a doctor in a trauma setting having to “call it” for a time of death. 

Oh, and let’s not forget the astrological footwork for the babies born in the second 1 to 2 AM zone!  Your whole life would be spent with questions like “If I’m doing my horoscope and it says I was born at 1:15 AM – and it was on the day that Daylight Time changed…but during that year, the time change took place on…”  You see the problems.  Especially when the change falls on a different weekend some years in some place…A rare form of Vedic madness?

Like anything, there’s an economic angle to the Time Scam, too.  You know how we are around here: Follow the Money and Everything is a Business Model.  The Wikipedia quotes on point:

A 2008 study examined billing data in Indiana before and after it adopted DST in 2006, and concluded that DST increased overall residential electricity consumption by 1% to 4%, due mostly to extra afternoon cooling and extra morning heating; the main increases came in the fall. The overall annual cost of DST to Indiana households was estimated to be $9 million, with an additional $1.7–5.5 million for social costs due to increased pollution

In 1984, Fortune magazine estimated that a seven-week extension of DST would yield an additional $30 million for 7-Eleven stores, and the National Golf Foundation estimated the extension would increase golf industry revenues $200 million to $300 million…

These are just a few of the “facts” of the Time Scam.

But this morning I’d like to toss yet another log on the fire of burning public debate:  It’s the idea that people are about to have their very sense of time screwed with immediately before an election.

The way I figure it, by letting people get an “extra hour of sleep” just before elections in the US, the incumbents will get a very slight statistical edge.

In fact, I proved this (at least to my personal satisfaction) this week when I took a collection of 10 lab rats and told them I would let them sleep for an extra hour two days before voting for Chief Lab Rat.  Oh, it took a little work to figure the mechanics of it out, and a couple of pounds of cheese, but in seventeen independent trials, I documented a 0.5% advantage to an incumbent rat if elections were held within 5 days (margin of error: 13.2 months) of a particular date.

Elaine and I keep planning to go somewhere in the old airplane…and thankfully, the skies are safe even on weekends when grounded people are cleverly manipulated.  Be reassured the laws of physics won’t be broken because pilots live and fly by Greenwich Mean Time.  Greenwich doesn’t get “saved.”  (Except in Connecticut, but to every rule there are…)

I’m perplexed what time to publish my column come Monday of next week.  We always try to have it up around 7:55 AM and occasionally we have been as late as 7:59 AM.  But Monday?  That column could appear just damn near any old time.

Obviously, some of this is tongue in cheek.  But not all.  We come to the serious part:

Imagine a fine new industry that would make sense for the whole world to adopt, post haste.

I call it simply Modern Time.

It throws away Daylight Time and some of Old Time, and evolves a new Modern Time.

Here’s the way it works:

We all know that the 24-hour day is not particularly good idea to live by. 

The reason?  Lots of medical studies have documented the importance of living your life in a manner that is in concert with your body’s circadian rhythms.

My late father noted that if you look at all the High Cultures around the world they almost always happened in temperate zones.  The people at the equator – where life was pretty easy and abundant until we screwed it up with 6.5-billion too many people – did not evolve high cultures..

Those tended to band from 20 to 60-degrees north of the equator.

Pappy’s theory was that this had something to do with seasons“If you have four distinct seasons, you tend to hustle more.  You have to get ready for a long winter, and so on,” he explained.  And that is absolutely true.

But it turns out there is even more to the equation:  These people (prior to Bad Clocks and Bad Timekeeping) used to rise with the dawn and sleep when  darkness fell.

And it didn’t fall the same way all the time (so to speak).  People would get lots of sleep in the winter and less sleep in the summer.

If we step out of The Ruling Paradigm, we can see how this was absolutely the healthiest way to live:  In winter, when many people got 12-hours of sleep (depending on latitude, of course) the medical effect would be their bodies were well rested.  This increased their immune system response to disease.  But in summertime, when work was abundant to prep for the following winter, what was there?  Plenty of light.

Although my personal heritage is Danish/Scottish, if I had to pick a nation of naturally “smart people” it would be Ukrainians.  Recent events aside, every Ukrainian I have ever met was exceptionally smart.  And it may have something to do with living an agrarian lifestyle and living by the Natural Time  rather than by clocks.

Ukraine residents who live rural, keep to the old ways, and eat yogurt and a high fiber diet, are also some of the longest-lived people in the world, too.

What ends up happening – as a result of the invention of clocks – is that we are living on Fake Time when people who live the longest live on what is scientifically called Sidereal Time.  In other words “Sun Time.,”  Wiki it and you’ll find me (as always) telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but (except for the occasional rat story):

Sidereal time /sa??d??ri?l/ is a time-keeping system astronomers use to keep track of the direction to point their telescopes to view a given star in the night sky. Briefly, sidereal time is a “time scale that is based on the Earth’s rate of rotation measured relative to the fixed stars.”[1]

From a given observation point, a star found at one location in the sky will be found at nearly the same location on another night at the same sidereal time. This is similar to how the time kept by a sundial can be used to find the location of the Sun. Just as the Sun and Moon appear to rise in the east and set in the west due to the rotation of the Earth, so do the stars. Both solar time and sidereal time make use of the regularity of the Earth’s rotation about its polar axis, solar time following the Sun while sidereal time roughly follows the stars. More exactly, sidereal time is the angle, measured from the observer’s meridian, along the celestial equator, to the great circle that passes through the March equinox and both poles, and is usually expressed in hours, minutes, and seconds.[2] Common time on a typical clock measures a slightly longer cycle, accounting not only for the Earth’s axial rotation but also for the Earth’s annual revolution around the Sun of slightly less than 1 degree per day (in fact to the nearest arc-second, it takes 365.2422 days to revolve therefore 360 degrees/365.2422 days = 0.9856 degrees or 59 arc-minutes, 8 arc-seconds per day, i.e., slightly less than 1 degree per day).

A mean sidereal day is about 23 hours, 56 minutes, 4.0916 seconds (23.9344699 hours or 0.99726958 mean solar days), the time it takes the Earth to make one rotation relative to the vernal equinox.[clarification needed] (Due to nutation, an actual sidereal day is not quite so constant.) The vernal equinox itself precesses slowly westward relative to the fixed stars, completing one revolution in about 26,000 years, so the misnamed sidereal day (“sidereal” is derived from the Latin sidus meaning “star”) is some 0.0084 seconds shorter than the Earth’s period of rotation relative to the fixed stars.

The longer “true” sidereal period is called a stellar day by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). It is also referred to as the sidereal period of rotation, or simply as the period of rotation or the rotational period.

So there it is:  The ANSWER!

We don’t need to have false flag attacks to justify making up industries.  All it would take would be an open-minded re-examination of the data to discover that the RIGHT time to follow is the one that is shown in the sky every day.

Clock processors to whatever you want…but meetings in the winter ought to be 40-minutes of old time, and time at work ought to be 6 hours, not 8, as measured by old time.  Now we’re talking some real (not self-delusional) energy savings.

Can you imagine the massive employment opportunities this would bring?  OMG, everything would change.  Just designing the algorithms for alarm clocks would employ huge numbers of people.  And appliances…network television shows….my list is long and worthy!

Timekeeping has been used as a way to control the Earth’s population for a long time.  My friends Chris Tyreman and Brad Vornholt write about how the “time deception” works at other levels in their book The Destruction of Sabbath: Tracking the History of Deception.

One again, we see how a natural timepiece (the lunar cycle) which was used as a monthly timekeeper for the work 6 days and rest of the 7th, supplied some leftover days which were festivals and party times in days of yore.  Festivals?  Fine idea….

I would have thought that when you have a book with simple instructions (rest on the 7th day) and living by the Sun’s rise and set that was almost universally agreed upon by both Christians and Jews alike, that adopting sidereal time would have been OBVIOUS.  Apparently, it ain’t that obvious.

Yet what better (subtle) tool could there be to keep large masses of people just slightly off their game most of the year?  Have then undersleep in winter and oversleep in summer.  Ignore what their bodies really want and need.

What shocks me is how solid the evidence for “fake time kills” really is:

Disruption of circadian rhythm increases the risk of cancer, metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease

Abstract
Incidents of non-communicable diseases (NCD) like cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease have increased dramatically and are currently the leading causes of death worldwide. Their rising incidents coincide with the dramatic changes in industrialization
and development of societies over the past few hundred years. Therefore, current lifestyle practices should be further explored to uncover novel risk factors for certain cancers (i.e. colon, prostate, and breast cancer), metabolic syndrome (i.e. diabetes and obesity), and cardiovascular disease (i.e. coronary artery disease). This review discusses how a disruption of the “biological clock” or circadian rhythms could be involved in the development of these diseases as circadian rhythms control multiple physiological processes such as wake/sleep cycles, hormonal levels,
body temperature, metabolism, and immune system.

Several environmental factors that disrupt circadian rhythms can be identified including exposure to artificial light and electromagnetic (EM) waves, unbalanced diet and night shift work. The mechanisms of how these “chronodisruptors” are associated with NCDs will be discussed.
Furthermore, the involvement of genetic factors in the disturbance of circadian rhythms and predisposition to NCDs will be highlighted.
Overall there is strong evidence from animal models and epidemiological studies underlining that circadian disruption is a significant player in several diseases particularly the multifactorial
diseases that pose a significant public health challenge in contemporary society. A circadian disruption-based model of cancer, metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease etiology can be proposed. But, to fully understand the complex interactions of the different components in the
network of disease development due to disruption of circadian rhythms, more investigations are needed to unravel the causal relationship between modern lifestyle, circadian rhythm disruption and complex disease. This summary will help to better understand the mechanisms and aid the
development of new methods and policies to lower incidence/death rates.”

Yet with all our technology – and with the screaming need for economic stimulus, we just can’t seem to put our finger on the obvious:  Yet here it comes this weekend without so much as a second thought – the Time Scam.

As the Tyreman/Vornholt work claims, and as evidence of circadian disruption causing major health issues proved, the Big Lies about Time run rampant.

So if you’re a little more susceptible to disease than you should be, and if you’re feeling just a bit “off” when comes time to vote Tuesday morning, just remember that it’s all a collusion of high-level forces to keep as many humans as possible living sub-0optiomal lives.

Isn’t it about time we grew the up and stop kidding ourselves?  Oh, wait…that’d be un-American.  Sorry to have brought it up.

Write when you break-even…  (and yes, I overslept this morning – may change my last name to Van Winkle…)…

George   george@ure.net