How to Slaughter the Bond Bulls

While the Fed announcement today is not likely to see an increase in rates (fall is more probable) there is still a very interesting bit of learning to be had by graphing out the ultra long-term Velocity of Money.

Not surprisingly, the Velocity now is wose than it has been at any time in the last 115 years.

That is a terrible structural problem for the Fed to deal with – and in this morning’s analysis we’ll explain why and how it will impact you personally.

First, however, the usual:  A few news tidbits and other goodies like our Trading Model.  Plus many cups of coffee…

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Housing Data

The reason this is such an important number this morning is that the Fed is meeting and they are expected to raise rates this fall and that should trigger a wild blow-off top in the stock market which will make us (even more) fabulously wealthy.

Thing is, if housing is looking to get too hot, it will be a bubble and that’s bad.  Except, of course , what no one mentions is that the way you end the Housing bust is by starting a new bubble, but this is a quibble and everyone knows quibbles are just 43.6% the size of bubbles.

imageNew York, July 28, 2015 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

Year-over-Year
imageThe 10-City Composite and National indices showed slightly higher year-over-year gains while the 20-City Composite had marginally lower year-over-year gains when compared to last month. The 10- City Composite gained 4.7% year-over-year, while the 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-overyear. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.4% annual increase in May 2015 versus a 4.3% increase in April 2015.

The data doesn’t include sales commissions and fees.  But it becomes clear that the Fed raise is facilitated by the numbers since we are sneaking up on old bubble high prices.

Bengkui Yanxu:  China’s Flop & Drop

imageBengkui is collapse and Yanxu is continuation.

Just when we thought it couldn’t get worse.

The Shanghai index came down again last night, only this time is was a more modest decline.

Down 1.68%, but the rest of the world seems to be shaking it off like a lab that’s just gotten out of the lake.  Europe is showing some decent (larger than one percent) gains.  And the US futures point to a perfect bounce if you’re into Fibonacci sequences.

In Fibonacci work, we would expect a 1.618 relationship.  So, with the Dow losing 127 Monday, a PTPPB  (Perfect5 Tuesday Picture-Perfect Bounce) would be 127*0.618 or call it 78 points.

imageWhen I looked at the futures over on www.finviz.xcom we were showing within 4-points of perfect, which means the market is moving nicely and in step with expectations.

That doesn’t answer the problem of Europe – where much bigger increases are evident.  Except that it does.  I won’t go through who has lost how much from where, but with some zooming in and zooming out, you’ll eventually begin to see things more clearly and everything will make sense.

The largest economic numbers hitting in the next 36-hours will be the S&P Housing data, which we will update at about 8:15 AM, or so.  And tomorrow’s Fed meeting where I don’t think we will see rates, but the wind machines will be turned on to try and talk the market this way or that. 

One thing which we look for would be reminders that a Few rate hike will be coming – and since our ideal timing would be their October meeting, we should hear the rate drums being beaten rather clearly.

Selling the Aristocracy

USA Today headlines:  New Hampshire poll: Trump 24%, Bush 12%.

But the Aristocracy Party  (Bush and Clinton) is ramping up trying to snow, no make that BS the public.

The DrudgeReport is headlining something about Dems for Bush which – when you read it – shows how the Aristocracy Party is bundling for both.

But meantime, the UK Mail is reporting ol Hil was flying off from her latest insincere climate pitch in a French biz jet that burns 347 gallons per hour,.

Meantime, the tantalizer is “Could Trump Win?”

The answer, as explained for our Peoplenomics readers a while back is “No, not likely.  It’s a business model conflict.  Hil and Jeb are building money machines to raise dough.  Trump has dough, but this is about free cash flow, not net sunk costs that are illiquid.”

So you will get someone from the Aristocrat Party unless Trump can get people to give him money.  But when was the last time you felt compelled to give money to a rich guy…especially one willing to rub your nose in it? 

Political Kabuki is fine, but when business models collide, bet on the one with the renewable income stream.  For being so pro business, I hate to say it but republicorps are seriously stupid.

Repeat after me for the umpteenth time:  Everything is a business model!

More Crooked Politics

The Iran deal – which is not a treaty, so Obama will implement regardless of what the Fools on the Hill think – will give the mullahs more moolah than all the dough the US has fronted Israel since 1948.

I make it through days like this pretending I have awakened on a planet in some other part of the Galaxy and I don’t want to get noticed or the zombies will turn on me…

Robots Not Zombies

Banks want to engage in robo-hiring,.

Meantime, Hawking, Musk, and the Woz are demanding a ban on AI robotics to kill.  But come on, boys, that’s not happening.

We will need robots to put down the last remaining Anglos when the invasion of America is done…which gets me to…

Bad News for Liberals on Immigration

My (sole remaining) liberal reader  (offsetting on the lone republican who doesn’t believe in CorpGov, either)  will hate to read this story:  That’s because he’s always whining the lib-whine about how the Center for Immigration Studies is partisan conservative.

Maybe if the reader would look at the invasion stats and federal law closer…but today that won’t be necessary.  Though defense of the border is not conservative – it’s the law!

Today it’s the Lutherans whose work on immigration is admirable.  They’re saying another 30,000 kids will be invading this year.  Same story goes on about how the UN is trying to shove this down our throats, too.  Ain’t that special?

And yes, that’s all coming across the same border that Obama and the Bushes and previous Clinton have not been  able to close down.

Have you enrolled in the Spanish as a Second Language program in your school, yet?

Tower of Babel time…divide people into many tongues and….

Fracking &  Quaking

No, it’s not the fracking, it’s the wastewater injection wells, stupid – this as the area up around OK City is getting fracked over yet again.  4.5 and 4.0 this time.

And a 7.0 down in the South Pacific, but you weren’t go there so it must not matter, right?