18,000 in the “Sugar-Plum Fairy” Economy?

Oh-oh, the price of oil is ticking back up, ever so slightly ($56 and change when I looked) but at least gasoline prices are not completely recovered.  The Triple A fuel gauge report shows $2.376 while a year ago was $3.25. 

Of course, we all know that when the gas price drops much more, the cost of the taxes will soon outweigh the cost of the underlying product. In California with their love of state revenue, the tax is 71.3-cents a gallon.

You might want to tank-off Monday or Tuesday or next week, since prices tend to go up around holidays. 

Sure, it may only be a few cents, but cents become dollars, and dollars become taxes, or something like that.

Before we get into the serious part of this morning’s report, I’d like to suggest you share some 4-way before hand, or you’ll miss the effect of Popular Delusions fed by federal statistics.

First up we have the GDP figures for November.  May I have the envelope, please>

“Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.6 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.9 percent. With the third estimate for the third quarter, both personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment.

Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The acceleration in the percent change in real GDP reflected a downturn in imports, an upturn in federal government spending, and an acceleration in PCE that were partly offset by a downturn in private inventory investment and decelerations in exports, in state and local government spending, in residential fixed investment, and in nonresidential fixed investment.

Estimate GPD for Q3 is $17.5998 trillion.  America’s Public Debt to the Penny this morning was around $18.028 trillion.

If you had debts in your personal life of $18,028 dollars and annual income $17600 dollars, how would you describe your condition?

I mean it’s not insurmountable (almost unavoidable for a while if you own a home) but in the FedGov’s case, they aren’t buying a home….

Next on the breakfast specials, we have Durable Goods, the big stuff that doesn’t wear our in 10-minutes.

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in
November decreased $1.7 billion or 0.7 percent to
$242.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced
today. This decrease, down three of the last four
months, followed a 0.3 percent October increase.
Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4
percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.1
percent.
Transportation equipment, also down three of the last
four months, led the decrease, $0.9 billion or 1.2 percent
to $75.5 billion.

Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in
November, down three of the last four months,
decreased $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $245.3 billion.
This followed a 0.1 percent October decrease.
Transportation equipment, down following two
consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $0.7
billion or 1.0 percent to $72.2 billion.

Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in
November, up nineteen of the last twenty months,
increased $4.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,178.9 billion.
This was at the highest level since the series was first
published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.5
percent October increase.
Transportation equipment, up fourteen of the last
fifteen months, led the increase, $3.3 billion or 0.4
percent to $749.9 billion.

And last, but not least is the Baltic Dry Index which has been cratering of late, suggesting that we will have a recession in Q1 2015.  This morning the index stands at 794.

Dow futures up 72 – will this be the day with click through 18,000?

Paying Back North Korea

Not too widely heralded (give it a day) is that someone cracked North Korea’s Internet.

The reason that not too many people noticed at first is that NK has a terrible set of net restrictions that keeps the web out of the hands of most people, and when there is access, it’s to internal propaganda sites mostly.

Since the US has promised a “proportionate” response, this could be part of it. 

My money is still on Anonymous, though.

Offensive Protests

Last week it was Greenpeace which got our award for tasteless protest, over their antics down at the Plain of Nazca in Peru. 

Now they have been one-upped by protesters who showed up at the funeral for the two NYC cops who were killed by the crazy this week.

File under “Mericans, Acting Badly.

Ukrainian Shoot Down?

More legs under earlier speculation here that the Ukrainians shot down MH 17 by mistake.

I’m sure you’re aware of the continuing swirl of conspiracy ideas surrounding Diego Garcia and MH-370, as well.

All is never all as it seems.

Passings:  Joe Cocker

Legendary rock & roller.

I heard a story at the recording studio turned school I ran in Burbank for a while, about Cocker once, from an engineer friend who also has gone on to the Sessions in the Sky.  He said that Cocker had be quite the partier.  In fact, this engineer alleged to me, to record a few of his songs, he had to be mic’ed sitting (and in some cases laying) on the floor…having a little too much party going on.  All captured on one of the earliest Quad-Eight boards with the old 2” magnetic tape.

That, young ‘uns,  was old school.

Ready for you know what?

Comments

18,000 in the “Sugar-Plum Fairy” Economy? — 2 Comments

  1. I was working on Diego Garcia when the disappearance of the aircraft occurred. It would be very difficult to cover something like that up. A lot of civilians work there thousands in fact. American, British, Filipino and some odds and ends. I started looking around to see if anything was up and saw nothing. However about 2 weeks afterward strange Asian faces started showing up around the island and about a month into the mystery I saw what looked like an all white no markings 777 taking off one day I was pretty startled and kept staring at it until out of sight. Soo that’s all I can say from personal observation.
    The Island is pretty much a big supply dump and a good spot for ground space operations. Not much room for much else.

  2. If the BDI is down – does that mean that it is cheaper to ship goods – and therefore more goods are being shipped?