Is Putin Threatening OPEC?

Own energy, own the future:  I was sitting around Friday, trying to noodle out what is likely to happen in Ukraine next week and how that would play through in global markets when a novel thought slapped me awake.  I do some of my best thinking in semi-snooze mode, you see.  Sure enough, when I looked back on a Peoplenomics report from 2001, the pieces began to click into place…how it all fits together:  Putin’s buddy-buddy talk down in the Bush ranch late 2001, stories about New World Order… and bingo!  We may have a larger game and Donetsk in play.  We’ll run some numbers and you’ll see what I mean, perhaps, but not without some good strong coffee and … Continue reading

Good Friday Notes

But what Friday isn’t good, if you’re on the five-day treadmill?  So with a semi-holiday this morning, and stock and bond markets closed, there’s little of economic data to prevent mind-rot, so we turn to the next best time:  Religion. Not that there’s not plenty of dough to be made there.  I figure my odds of scoring a bizjet would have been significantly higher if I’d opted for theology over business administration.  Why, even if the base pay were the same, the church gig would still be a better deal just on a tax basis. With these (seditious) thoughts swimming around, we begin by directing you to our “read of the day” which happens to be the Time Magazine article … Continue reading

Coping: Calm Before the Weekend

One of the more confusing holidays of the year is before us this morning:  Good Friday.  Stock and bond markets are closed in the US, but elsewhere around the world, it’s a different deal since not everyone buys in to the Christian-Judeo view of things.  Still, this weekend’s  confluence of Easter happening in mid Passover has left folks confused. On the federal side, the ultimate arbiter is the federal office of personnel management which has their list here.  Feds get 10-scheduled and some personal time, if I recall.  Comp time, if memory serves, too. Most of American industry – in order to squeeze out more work has dropped to about six holidays – and in many cases, not even that.  … Continue reading

Markets: Friday on Thursday

There’s not really much to talk about ion markets this morning.  The Dow put on a marvelous short squeeze Wednesday but in the after math this morning, look for the Dow to give back some of that as the day wears on.  The reason being it’s a three day weekend for markets and there’s a good chance that the Ukraine situation could change for the worse (much worse) by Monday if Vlad Putin gets is T levels too high. The unemployment claims for last week came in about 8,000 lower than  expected, which convinced the futures that the world was not ending just this minute, so we slid back to about an even opening level. Goldman earnings came out and … Continue reading

Coping: The Weekend Warrior’s Early Start

Not too often that I seek reader input on project around the ranch, but we’ve been busy getting the new sunroom and the new audio/video room ready to “button up” with sheetrock. And so the question of the morning is:  Between Lowes and Home Despots, who’s got the lightest-weight 1/2 rock for the ceiling? I know this is a rather esoteric kind of question, but it’s the little decisions that make a difference in home improvement projects.  Given a choice between wrestling around the heavier sheetrock or some of the new (lighter weight) material, this seems like a no-brainer.  Also, the lighter rock is supposedly less susceptible to sag when using 24-inch centers on the ceiling. Any thoughts welcome, particularly … Continue reading

Where Next: Gold in the Long-term

Coming up with all the assorted ways of looking at various financial data is a whole pile of work and if we can’t use the work product to make a buck, then what’s the point?  This weekend we’re going to have a heavy duty chart talk about gold and we’ll lay out some expectations about the future.  Even if you don’t hold a single round, you may still find the discussion a useful introduction in how to look at a financial asset and develop a measured view toward the future.  I’ll save my own outlook for the end, but you might want to have some lighter fluid and a Zippo handy if you’re a real dyed-in-the-wool gold bug.  First, however, … Continue reading

Markets & Outlook: Conflicted Indicators

I had occasion to head up to Tyler, Texas Monday to meet up with visiting Howard Hill and lead him back to what we jokingly call Deliverance Country here in the outback.  And while I was there I loaded up the car with supplies because we don’t like to shop and it’s 15-miles just to find a gas station around here… What struck me was how busy the town was.  There were wall-to-wall people everywhere I looked.  Parking lots of shopping areas were full, or darned near.  The Barnes and Noble was busy, Northern Tool had a steady flow of people going through.  But most telling was (to me) where people were hanging around at the Brookshire’s grocery. They didn’t … Continue reading

Coping: National Dream Center–“Project August”

It’s time to let another cat out of the bag.  You may remember a couple of weeks back, I told you that I’d handed off my project to Chris McCleary (MBA/MA/EdS) who has now gotten the website retooled and such.  He’s running the site with tons of energy and new content – the thing I never seemed to get around to doing… About here, I’d remind anyone who is thinking about building a website that one of the keys to success is updating a site with new content daily.and Chris is adding content to the blog portion of the site… But that’s not the important part.  Project August is. The idea Chris has come up with is simple:  Get … Continue reading

Markets: How Far is Down?

The market is going to rally this morning – and it might even make it back up to 1,840 on the S&P.  But we play the long game around here, and so we begin this morning with a very somber outlook for markets, except as our Peoplenomics subscribers have known for weeks, it won’t be somber around here because anyone with half a brain can make as much (or more) money when markets are going down, compared to when they are going up.  It’s just that that the American public has been hoodwinked into thinking that taking the short side is somehow bad.  Truth is:  Your money doesn’t give a shit.  It goes to the people who make the “right” … Continue reading

Coping: Profits of Doom, A Realist’s View of Gold

As you know, UrbanSurvival was one of the original “doom” sites, and then into prepping, long before it became vogue.  And our present focus  – unlike many of the doom porn and “whip ‘em up” sites – is about making it through the present and still arriving disruptions over the next couple of years with as much common sense as possible. This morning I had emails galore from outfits like Patriotsomething and Survivalsomething and they were assuring me that Obama has plans to fill up FEMA camps, take away our guns, and all the rest of it.  Oh, and let’s not leave out sites – selling newsletters and what-have-you – that are worked up over changes in law coming July … Continue reading

Where’s that Holy Grail of Trading?

Imagine Indiana Jones being broken up into a weekly series of smaller adventures.  Except instead of being on some Last Crusade, we’re just looking for a way to steal back the Lost Fortune of ‘Merica.  The clues are often occult, but every so often, there’s a glimmer and a thought or two which crosses our path.  We’ll check the snares up the trail after we get through a few headlines and coffee… More for Subscribers        |||        SUBSCRIBE NOW!       |||      Subscriber Help Center … Continue reading

Slap-dash & Crash

The market will fall today.  It is NOT the end of the world.  That comes this summer. Peoplenomics subscribers, though, have to be deliriously happy with our Trading Model which has, for about the past three weeks been setting up on a “replay of summer 2011” and which I trade quite publicly.  It’s one thing to have a trading model that keeps you in the Big Trends, but it’s another to bet against it and the market as I have been. Neener, neener.  Ure wins a cheeseburger.   For a change, the market is coming around to my way of thinking. I’ve mentioned Roget Reynolds email list a number of times.  He’s an “old hand” (OK, not that old…) at markets … Continue reading