On Circularity, Bitcoins, and “Demand Crumple”

(Albuquerque, NM)  The bad news yesterday was that the bond yield was down, and that drove the US dollar purchasing power UP.

That, in turn, meant that it didn’t take as many dollars to buy the same thing as it did before.  Or, more practically, if you’d bought the day before, then the number of dollars you’d get for sale of the asset yesterday would have been down.,

This morning, we see the price of gold is up, which means the dollar is down, which means that the number of dollars needed will move up a bit (or at least should) which should turn the market as the day wears on, although some follow-through selling is expected at the open.… >>> Read More >>>

When Will Ebola “Infect” the Markets?

This is not a moot question to be asking.  First US forces are in Africa now.

Oh, sure, the epidemiologists have been writing up the propagation math and the RO is still too high and the response is just entering ramp-up, but to me the fascinating question which we raised a while back might be stated something like this:

“If the Black Plague were to show up today, how many deaths (distributed in what geographical manner) would be required for the disease to trigger a “kindling point” beyond which market collapse occurs as people flee for their lives and don’t want to be the “last ones out?”

I don’t believe humans have had to think in these terms, before.  About the closest example I could think of was the Italian Plague which was temporally near the blow-off Tulip[mania event in Holland in the 1630s?  From Wikipedia:

The Italian Plague of 1629–31 was a series of outbreaks of bubonic plague which occurred from 1629 through 1631 in northern Italy.

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Coping: With the Long Drive Home

(Payson, AZ)  Still at least two more days of driving to go…but first…

It’s not often I begin a Monday column with apologies, but sadly, we don’t have time on our return trip from the PNW to schedule a stop in Prescott, AZ to visit with my commodity broker, JB Slear of www.fortweralth.com.  Nor, as it turns out, will  we have time to visit “The Castle” of Mike and Shirley up in the mountains of southern Colorado.… >>> Read More >>>

The Computational Bolsheviks

(Reno, NV)  Peoplenomics reports are always a joy to write – and unlike the UrbanSurvival columns, they have a serious-as-a-heart-attack angle to them because it’s where we get to nail down key aspects of the future and work out strategies for dealing with it.  This morning we put down four “corner posts”  that define our future.… >>> Read More >>>

Future’s So Bright…We gotta wear shades…

(Canyonville, OR) The rally in the stock market didn’t come as any particular surprise to our www.peoplenomics.com readers:  It’s quite possible that this is the bullish breakout to the upside that we’ve been waiting for coming on several months, now.

What COULD be going on is that the caution on the Fed’s part may have touched off a rally that could “go parabolic.”  I sure hope so, since I’ve been believing in our Trading Model and its unbridled enthusiasm for a long time.… >>> Read More >>>

Coping: With Branded America

(Canyonville, OR)  The drive from Purdy, WA (a western outpost of Gig Harbor, an outpost of Tacoma that’s in turn an outpost of Seattle, that’s a subset of Washington State) down to our first night out on the long road back to Texas, was punctuated mostly by looking at how branded Americans are.… >>> Read More >>>