An Alternative View of the Future

Think things are headed for a quick flush down the old crapper?

Think again.

Although doom porn sells, we take off the brown colorized glasses and put on the rose ones for a while this morning,  With it will come a description of a future which, although it seems unlikely today, could make a whole lot of doom peddlers look mighty damn stupid.

As usual, our discussion will be entirely based on facts and our curious view that much about the future can be learned through the study of economic history.

After headlines and our Trading Model….which has continued to be more correct, more often, than 99% of doom-sayers.

Last time I wrote something like this, more than a few readers thought I was losing it in our June 2012 report which I said I was getting bullish.  Yet, back then, the Dow as just over 10,000!  As usual, readers are welcome to be critical…just don’t tell the bank and don’t even breathe on the Trading Model.

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Markets: Mayday, Mayday

“Sell in May and go away” shouldn’t be tested until next week.  But, already we have seen some of the early quitters toss in the towel.

My friend Robin Landry, who’s been tracking markets for 38-years now, managing private accounts up in the 9 or 10-figure area, called Thursday to announce we had broken support at the S&P 2,090 level. 

He’s expecting the market to “kiss the underside” of support today but then a roll down to the 2,040 level is where things will get interesting. 

In fact, it’s such an interesting level that I told you about it in my April 6th column:  “2,040: The only Battle that Matters.”  We may be replaying that column before May is out.

Whether the S&P can kiss 2,090 is only a half-interesting problem.  We will refine our outlook for our Peoplenomics™ readers tomorrow with a look some different trading scenarios for the coming three-year period.

In the meantime, deflation is still lurking – which is why the Fed wouldn’t put dates to their rate increase fairytale, any longer.    Bitcoins have held at $235’ish, which might be encouraging, except that the Fed’

s H.6 Currency Stocks report shows most recently an inclination to increase the value of dollars, which smacks of central bank collusion to stabilize the financial world.  Not that that would be a bad thing.  It just makes it hard to place intelligent bets in the casino when the odds are being changed with every spin, so to speak.

Meanwhile, if you’re looking for what will drive the economy, get back in line next week – but not before Friday, because that’s when the employment data will be out.  Not point hurrying things along.

There’s standard time, daylight time, and government time.

Halls of the Asylum/ Alternate Reality

The injection of truth serum this morning is almost an over-dose.

While the price of $100-million and up homes has just set a record, we have Baltimoron contagion strike Philadelphia, the city of brotherly riots.

Ah, don’t let the facts or testimony of the other man in the van with Freddie break up the excuse to riot.

Meantime, the do-gooder department of Baltimess has to deal with being outed as keeping police in check – which just ramped up the riots.  Withdrawing force to end a riot is like turning off the water at a house fire.

Might work in California, or Nevada, where Lake Mean is rapidly disappearing.

But the facts are leaking out too slowly (like Gray did himself harm).  What is the city officialdumb’s reason for releasing facts so slowly?  It’s like they want violence.  Police budgets and the pending Patriot Act renewal are our top suspects.

MIA: Jade Helm Truth?

Tea Party Nation and others keep sounding the alarm with posts like this one.

Countering this, we notice how Fearless Leader speaks of going back to “community organizing”  which, if it’s like some many other Onitiatives, should be the kiss of death for that occupation, so to speak.

Never fear, the Republic for which we Stood isz just returning to 60’s-style activism.

Church of Rove?

Could one-time Bushie supporter Karl Rove have avoided possible pending problems with IRS had his Crossroads group organized as a church rather that community nonprofit?  Tis an intriguing thought problem for the inmates today.

Hell, for a few million, I might have been able to buy him a dioceses in the Church of the Almighty Dollar, if Pope Howard would approve.  Then again, he probably wouldn’t, since even the Church of the Almighty Dollar has some standards.  Most can be rented, though.

Flash War Preps

What this?  Iran lying again on the nuke front?  As the UK has disclosed their shopping for the glow-job parts.

Meantime it’s a tortoise and hare kind of race.  Iran as the tortoise is running the slow circuit of denial and running the clock.  The Saudi rabbits are burning cash at record rates.

Do Iran run out of excuses or  Saudis run out of money, first?  Stand by…

Special People, Special Visas

Aw, gee, look surprised.  Up comes the face of Homeland Security before CONgress to address an Inspector General report that hints of corruption under which connected companies get special treatment.

Not so, says the DHS spokes.  Yeah, sure, you bet’cha.  I’m just so sure the whacked US IT workers at Disney will be swallowing this pill…

But maybe there’s a reason…maybe we don’t need Disneyland anymore; we do, after all, have Washington.  And Baltimore….Now if we could just outsource them…

– – –

OK, short column this morning – it’s Friday and you have lots of stuff to do to get ready for the weekend…

Peoplenomics tomorrow will be a look at how to play the pending market blow-off as we size up risk premiums in the period ahead…