Economics: Worrywarts and Dart Throws

The longwave economic paradigm is simple:  The economy goes through 48-64 year cycles that are fairly regular, although there is a case for a 75-year cycle that goes along with some theoretical work I did with a colleague in 2000-2001 about how long a currency could last until it was overloaded with debt and needed collapse (a value restoration process) in order to retain its value.

Here lately, the US currency has been relatively stable, which is why gold and silver haven’t gone screaming toward the stars.  But give it time.

We are still in the bottoming-out portion of the longwave decline in interest rates that any damn fool can see by looking at a long-term chart of the 10-year Treasury.>>> Read More >>>

Coping: Aftermath, Monitors, and DYI Magic Notes

As I reported in yesterday’s column, things around the ranch here in East Texas were a bit nuts on Thursday.  But this morning things are “back in the groove…”

The lack of sleep was corrected by about 10 AM…which gets me to mentioning the article out this week on how many hours of sleep a person really needs.  It was in the Wall St. Journal and says “Why Seven Hours of Sleep might be better than Eight.”

Normally, I’d have found that pretty interesting, since about 7 1/2-hours is what I run on.  But when I’ve run on 5 & 6 and then drop back to 4 — well, that for me is a crash and that came with this week’s storm.… >>> Read More >>>

Is this Our “Sky Flashes” Indicator?

What we have is a very short report this morning (full whine in the Coping section to follow)  so don’t expert the usual dull wit this morning…more like half-wit as I run on fumes.

Nevertheless, you know all that talk about “sky flashes” that showed up in Chris McCleary’s forecast in Project August?

How’s this for fitting?

My Saddest Photo Yet’: Astronaut Sees Israel and Gaza Rocket Fire From Space.

I’ve long held that there’s no intelligent life on earth and this seems to make that point clear to any advanced civilizations wandering by.

Another One Down – They Come in Threes

We had an old saying back in my airline days “Crashes come in threes.”

Last Thursday it was MH-17, then Taiwan killed 51 earlier this week and this morning an Air Algerie jet has been lost from radar with 116 aboard.… >>> Read More >>>

Coping: WoWW, Rain, and Pain

Normally, life out here at the “end of the string” is pretty good.  Until yesterday, to be precise:  That’s when things got exceptionally weird – resulting in a shorter than usual column this morning.

It began Wednesday morning when I got up to put the finishing touches of our  report.

As always, I got up, used “the facilities,” weighed myself, and then wandered into the kitchen in my “altogether.”

I looked at the close on the stock:  Recent model stove and it said 5:30 on the button.  I made a special note of it because even number times are a 1:10 long shot.  So I looked again.… >>> Read More >>>

A Federal Reserve “Disaster Timer?”

Is it too early to use existing hints in Big Data to tell us when might be an ideal time to have a crash?  Not that a Crash larger than 1929 is something we look forward to, mind you.  But aside from making all that prepping worthwhile, it also will give us a lot of planning time for our few (and regrettably small) trades to try and stay ahead of the Financial Grim Reaper.

So this morning we come up with one way to look at when the world falls apart in a serious way; not that it couldn’t go sooner, but with a planning horizon, things are just a whole lot more comfortable…just like when in early 2008 we developed multiple views of what would happen later that year and into 2009.… >>> Read More >>>

Do You Believe These CPI Figures?

Let’s hop right in to the data just out from the Labor Department:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

In contrast to the broad-based increase last month, the June seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was primarily driven by the gasoline index. It rose 3.3 percent and accounted for two-thirds of the all items increase.

Other energy indexes were mixed, with the electricity index rising, but the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil declining.

>>> Read More >>>

Coping: They’re Coming for Kansas Next

This morning, with every intention of writing a short column, as I’ve been promising myself, I sat down to a bowl of leftovers for breakfast and finally started to read through the latest issue of AOPA Pilot that’s been sitting on the counter gathering dust.  Too much work, too little time.

This issue was particularly interesting to me because it features seaplanes and years ago (like back in the 1970’s) I did the voiceover work for Kenmore Air’s seaplane flight training series.  This was back in the days of cassettes, mind you.

Seaplanes and I have some very fond memories:  The first one I flew was a J-3 Cub on floats, but after that I moved up to a Lake LA-4-200 amphibian.  When landing on water, the retractable gear stays safely tucked away.  But when landing at Boeing Field in Seattle, the gear dropped down and the plane landed on very short, but solid “legs.”

The only oddity of the Lake was that it featured a pusher prop mounted on a pylon over the cabin and above the wing.  Which required a bit of getting used to:  Normally when you’re on final approach for landing, if you pull the power back a bit, the nose will come down and often very little adjustment to trim is needed.… >>> Read More >>>

MH-17: Ferdinand’s Airplane?

Tensions between the US and Russia haven’t been this high since the Cold War and, with reports of crash scene tampering floating about from eastern Ukraine, the question of “Who shot it down” is echoing around the international community. 

Against this background, reader TJ wonders:

Hey George, do you think the plane could be a Ferdinand moment like the one that started WW1?

That’s a pretty interesting question. The Wikipedia entry on point offers this:

On Sunday, 28 June 1914, at approximately 10:45 am, Franz Ferdinand and his wife were killed in Sarajevo, the capital of the Austro-Hungarian province of Bosnia and Herzegovina, by Gavrilo Princip, 19 at the time, a member of Young Bosnia and one of a group of assassins organized by the Black Hand.

>>> Read More >>>